This particular topic will deal mostly with the problem of supply vs. demand, but you can discuss the environmental effects as well.

Oil discoveries in the US reached their peak in the 1930's. Oil production had been following the same trend, but displaced several decades, as is logical. And based on that, a scientist made a prediction that oil production would also reach a peak in the 1970's. He was dead on. Since then, oil production in the US has declined rapidly, and so the US has been relying on foreign imports for their consumption.

Of the top 30 oil-producing countries in the world, 15 have already passed their production peak. Several of the top 10 have decreased dramatically. And many more are to follow. OPEC made a decision in the 1980's that foreign countries could extract oil proportional to the stated reserves. So naturally, reserves were overstated incredibly to allow more extraction. The actual amounts are a state secret, so all we have to go on is their word.

Oil production today numbers about 84 million barrels per day. However, the gap between consumption and production is slim, we consume 82 million barrels daily, which is barely sustained. By 2010, we will see a massive decrease in production, and yet an increase in demand. Production will fall to 65 million barrels a day. Demand, however, will increase to as much as 92 million barrels. Soon enough, price won't even be an issue. There simply won't be enough oil to go around.

The 4 most important things people can do:
1) Stabilize the population by making intelligent choices about having children
2) Lower consumption rates by using more efficient vehicles and using them less often or at least in less consuming ways
3) Supporting businesses, such as organic foods, that consume less oil
4) Make yourself heard to politicians and the public, to spread awareness

1) Not really possible.
2) Thats a good thing to do, but people in most advanced countries are not going to lower the usage of cars.
3) Thats also a good thing to do.
4) Thats being done for many years already... doesn't really help.

1) Next china ? No thanks, some countries already have more dead than born
2) Hybrid cars for example - but unfortunately they are too expensive
3) I think in Europe it's what most people do
4) Unless some people homes and lives will be damaged by it, people won't care.

^Cars that are too expensive is not the biggest isssue about that. In several major countries, including the US, I find hybrid cars aren't that much more expensive than normal ones. It's just that people aren't willing to spend a couple thousand more when they can get one that is just as useful for cheaper.

^^About the awareness, it's not just letting people know that it's bad. People know that, but they still don't accept just how serious it is. If they watch a movie like The Day After Tomorrow, they shake it off saying it's just a movie, and things will happen but it's not that bad. The thing is, it pretty much is at this point, because our problems are only compounding. People have yet to realize how real this is, and that it's already going on, now.

Yes it a problem but, the average person is not going to do anything about it tell it effects them enough. We are self destructive race and it won't change until we either get to the critical point and start wiping ourselves out or someone or something makes it easy or forces everyone to make the right choices. Because the vast majority of people are lazy, inconsiderate, greedy and/or indifferent to the problems caused by over consumption of resources.

I think that point was very clear from the start. Keep the discussion to the oil and if you want to rant about how much humans suck just do it somewhere else.

Well it is the root of the oil problem there are the people who consume it. Heck it has actually have started to become profitable to use more complex method to extract oil to meet these demands. Going beyond the limits we originally had technologies have in this field made massive progress by were I am living at. If incentive and profit are there people will find the away to accomplish it. People just put there efforts were the money is that all. And the money is in oil at the moment.

Not for long. There won't be any oil to put money in, soon enough. Which is the focus of the topic.

^ The problem is that people tend to forget that besides "now" and "tomorrow" there is "20 years later" too.

We all will die from a meteor striking earth anyway.

Then there is a solution - just simply replace oil by something synthetic. A lot of people is already working on it, some of my old professors went to states to work on that.

And what do you plan to synthesize from? Considering it is none organic fuel.

Non-organic things can be easily synthesized but so can the organic, although it seems the idea comes to the least favourable idea - usage of mine carbon, which solves little of problems.

Another idea is too speed up the process of creation, but I have absolutely no idea how they want to do it or what to use as cathalysor...

Exactly, no matter what we do we'll use the resources of the planet. And I'm not sure if it is even possible to end this or not.

Yeah, we need fuel to research that stuff too. And lots of it to run the machines that make whatever. You don't get something out of nothing.

And it isn't even an issue of 20 years from now at this point, it will become a major problem within the next year or two. Production will be 2/3 the level of demand, or less.

There are also ecological car that run on H2O or H2 which will become popular when fuel will be very expensive.

Do you know how they produce H2 in mass quantities? I work in a Hydrogen plant and what they do is just breaks up natural gas into hydrogen, CO, and CO2. All that does is change the stage in which the fossil fuels are consumed. If you wounder why an oil refinery produce hydrogen. It is to hydrotreat their product to remove impurities so, they can get a cleaner and safer product. They can make H2 through electrolysis but, that takes a lot of energy and water to produce H2 using this method with current technologies. There is so much, work that need to be done to make it viable.

They are also working on organic fuel too. The problem is how to implement it without creating a world wide famine and without taking up so much land that we lose more then we save.

Also it isn't going to a problem in a few year. It has been a problem in the last year or most likely way longer, what do you think those spikes in price oil per barrel prices to over 100 dollars were able to occur because it is already a problem and it starting to be more evident. The US was almost forced to go into the emergency reserve just to deal with the problem. Though a lot of temporary solution were put in place to buy time though so, they didn't have to go that far.

Yes but in 1-2 years it will reach the point of desperation.

We already reached the level of desperation few times, yet there is enough oil for another 100 years or even 1000. We just need to uncover it.

A lot of those only become viable if the price of oil goes over 120 dollars per barrel and that if you taken in count upgrade in technologies at the current rate in about 10 years. If no upgrades in technology are made it would need to be around 200 dollars per barrel before it is worth going after those sources. Hmm... I wounder who is going to flip that bill. Those kind of prices if they hit market too fast will result in the fall of any oil dependent nation.

Well there is always solar power, but that is not efficient enough. Soon after the oil crysis this technology will be developed and be used properly.

Kolox, that is not true. Oil discoveries are only going down, and they will reach flat soon enough. Already they have in 15 of the top 30 oil producers, and many others are soon to reach their peak and fall. And those 15 include most of the very top.

The problem with oil discovery is because it's too deep for any mechanical drill to get there - with technology advance (Which occurs rapidly) we will get to those oil reserves. We will get into crisis area soon but that will only motivate industries to work on better drills.

It happened before - we were digging oil from short distances and then we thought "All rope is gone" and then they developed a better drill and "Hey guys, guess what - there is more oil down there and there is most likely even more down there but we can't really get to it".

But that's not something media would talk about.

That's only when they discovered oil, but couldn't get to it. Now, finding oil is hardly a problem. The thing is, oil reserve finds in most countries is nil, and has been for a while. The thing is, production, which is lagging behind on the graphs, is falling too.

Coal is also a good substitute for oil in rafineries.

^ Coal is bad for ecological reasons. Also, there is not much left too.

Well then you pick something up... I'm out of ideas.

WHICH IS THE PROBLEM.

Gaah...I hate repeating myself. Stop trying to find some half-idea for supporting the massive demand and just LOWER CONSUMPTION. That's the point to this. Burning out one fossil fuel after another systematically is definitely not the answer.

Let see solution to reduce consumption of oil can be summed up in population reduction, increased efficiency of technologies, changes of life style, especially those in developed nations and/or find a new resource that we can consume to replace oil. Am I missing anything?

Apparrantly the U.S. has a massive stock pile of oil which I hear is enough to run the world for a long while. It seems the plan is to buy and stock up as much as possible and when the world runs dry, sell it back to world at any price they choose since they will have a monopoly on it. It is for the U.S. to gain global domination. Gotta love this country and their get rich quick schemes.

Just adding my two cents into this discussion. May not be related in any way to the topic except for the word 'oil'.

Actually that stockpile is to run there own country for a long while. It is to avoid a complete collapse of there economy if the price of fossil fuel go too high for a long period of time. If they have to use it that means that as soon it runs out their nations economy would collapse.

You want to know something interesting. If the oil price remain at the current price that it closed at today for two weeks straight the US economy would completely collapse without that stockpile especially since they have a war going on.

I know. I'm watching this nation slowly decay and die.

The oil in fact isn't just for the country. Supposedly there is enough to balance out the oil crisis we are in now. Whatever that means. I don't really pay attention to the news.

If no one minds, anyone know a place where I can move to? Perferably out of the U.S. It would be nice to move near one of you guys. We can hang out and stuff. Just don't give me an address for a mental institution. The thought is nice but I don't get access to the internet so I can't post here.

Don't worry the place I'm sending you is a psychiatrist. She looks good and she doesn't charge anything for the room you're going to get into.