With Nadal showing great form early on in the season on a surface that he is vulnerable constantly on,this leaves him in well regard for the clay season which I dont think is going to offer many surprises this year yet again.The French Open has Nadal clear favourite in my books.

Novak is coming into his own along with Murray and his non-improving game but still gets the job done.These two are going to be contenders at Wimbledon especially Novak who seems to be dethrowning Federer on fast surfaces.

The burning question is will Federer win a slam this year?With the increase in early losses to people like Fish,Volandri Canas etc its becoming increasingly obvious that more guys are going to come into the foray at the slams and more guys believe they can win against him.Whilst it makes the game very interesting where does that leave Federer in terms of his record breaking stake and his place as GOAT in History?He was so focused on breaking Petes Record it looks as if its going to take a few more years to happen.

Nevertheless,I still believe he has the game and the goods to deliver.Its up to him to make the necessary changes.Get a coach,improve his transition game and get a plan B when the baseline bash isnt working.

Thoughts people!

:darkangel:

Bizzarely enough Dark i actually agree with everything you've said :dohh: (well, perhaps bar the little crack about Murray's game but I'll let that slide :P ) One of my bold predictions was that Federer will not win a slam this year and I'm starting to think that may not be quite so bold. :unsure:

Like you said, the FO has Nadal's name written all over it, and now Federer is starting to look vulnerable it wouldn't surprise me if he lost relatively early on at Wimby as well. Nadal pushed him hard at Wimbledon last year, and I suspect that Rafa really has that in his sights this year - apparently he cried for about 20 minutes when he lost last year :kiss2:

The US Open is the one that i'm not sure about, but Fed is looking vulnerable on hard courts at the moment.....

I think everything you say in your final sentence is spot on (not Thoughts people, the bit before that) - nothing more to add :ok:

Definitely an interesting thought. But Fed is in a slump at the moment, and that can turn around for anyone at any point.

I still think he will win Wimbledon this year but I have a funny feeling that will be his only slam in 2008.

Bizzarely enough here, I agree with this.Its almost as if History is repeating itself.In the nineties we had Pete who also would go through these slumps but come Wimbers he out of nowhere was a shoe in for the title.Its almost as if its happening again :blink:

Not only has Federer not won a tournament this year, he hasn't even made a final yet.

I know we are in Britain (most of us) but as far as I'm concerned Murray has done absolutely nothing to be mentioned in the same sentence as Djokovic. And the way Murray plays the game of Tennis, that won't change anytime soon.

Let's not forget Nalbandian who should be a threat on the clay as well.

Let's say that Federer doesn't win the French this year, then it all comes down to Wimbledon.

By the way, when is Richard Gasquet going to step up? He's more talented than Murray and is nowhere near as annoying, therefore he's more pleasant to watch and I want to see him doing better.

I would like to see Tsonga win a tournament to give him some confidence. Gasquet and Tsonga could take over from Pioline and Leconte in the French underachieving category.

Well done Roddick, so now Federer has challenges everywhere he looks.

Wow, even Blake and Davydenko might fancy Federer now! :blink:

I will add the name of Berdy: I really hope that this is the good season for him: This guy as more tennis than plenty of other young guns (more than Murray for sure IMO) and I hope he will start the demo in Miami..

I really believe he will be a threat in Wimbledon and USO IMO :rolleyes: :P

The USO was mentioned. I think that is not the one to write Fed off in because it is 6 months away and gives Federer a lot of time to recover from his illness and get things back on track game wise. And we generally see a lot of fatigued players by then, Nadal for example not doing very well there. And Djoko could well be knackered or injured by then - in fact last year he was exhausted at Wimby. Anything can happen. Plus if Federer gets there having won no slams, I think the pressure will be off.

While I was watching the Fed/Rod match yesterday, I thought, after having watched 2 weeks of tennis including Nadal, Djoko, Davydenko and the rest, noone else besides Federer makes the game look so easy. He makes winners at will and string them with the minimum sweat. Like his Djoko AO match, he could have won last night in two sets but it wasn't to be. Confidence is certainly the issue as we saw in the 3rd set his FH being extremely loopy with either shanks or toothless.
This confidence can come and go and by playing more and more, i expect it to be back soon....or desintegrate further. He certainly can win no GS this year...or win the 3 remaining ones. Interesting times.

I'm not sure about Fed winning wimbledon..I guess its nadal's domain now but I guess Fed will win the USO..winning wimbey may stir him up and then he'll go on to win and besides no one can write off champions...and besides if his illness looks really bad then that'll be the right time for him to recover and win again

do you actually mean that Wimby is Nadal's domain now? or do you mean the FO??? :wacko:

I finished as well to look at the match of yesterday and I tend to agree with you Mr. T..Still, his last serve game in the third was just out of his standard. :cry: :cry: .So unusual.. :cry: :cry:

And definitely related to a poor confidence in his Tennis at the moment.

Nevertheless here two post match comments by the two players:

``I am just sort of disappointed not to see my name playing in the finals,'' Federer said. ``I think I have the game to obviously be there.''

Roddick fell behind 0-30 serving at 3-3 in the final set, then won the next 11 points, five of them thanks to unforced errors by Federer.

``I figure I was due,'' Roddick said. ``He hadn't missed a ball in a crucial moment for about six years against me :yikes: :yikes: [so true :lmaao: ].

I figured the law of statistics had to come my way eventually.'' [AROD is so funny :lmaao: ]

:) I'm still hoping he will try and do better at the French Open and Wimbledon... the rest is up to him.

But things couldn't have looked better for Andy Roddick, ...Fed in a slump, you watch your fellow countryman , Mardy Fish, comprehensively stop Fed, you are going to get hitched to some sweetheart... couldn't be more spring feeling than that. :) :P Behind every successful man there is a woman...... :unsure: *wonders what exactly Jo is doing for Safin these day...*

obviously not enough :P :cry:

I think I was pretty clear :P
I believe Fed's gonna win only USO this year Nadal has improved so much on grass I reckon nadal will win wimbey this year..Rafa may end up doing a double...(FO and Wimbey) I'm allowed to hope am I not :rolleyes:

I like that Rod comment TV. ;)

Roddick certainly has a future for TV commentater when his tennis career is over.

i thought i'd check before i disagreed with you :P

As much as I think that Nadal has a good chance at Wimby this year, I don't think we can really call it his domain. :shrug: Wimby is Federer's favourite slam and one where he really seems at home, and as much as Rafa has really raised his game I still think (or maybe hope) that Fed will raise his game for Wimby. Also, there's others who may be able to challenge Rafa on grass - Djoko, Roddick? Don't get me wrong, I'd be thrilled for him if Rafa won Wimby, but i'm not sure that that particular torch has changed hands yet.

Out of interest, on Fed's Wimby chances - considering he's obviously putting a lot of effort in to winning the FO - playing Estoril seems a good example of this - when (or if) he doesn't win it how will that affect his confidence going in to Wimby??? :shrug:

I agree with most part but about the torch changing hands...remember what Borg said? Nadal is like Mc Enroe who'll take the mantle from Fed after 5 wimbeys...well players are not the same...but something tells me that Fed may not wimbey this year..and that's gonna affect his confidence..of course that doesn't mean that only rafa will win...

I agree I'm not sure that Fed will win this year, although only time will tell of course - but like you said, doesn't necessarily mean it's going to be Rafa's. :ok:

To be honest, even being very confident in Federer skills, I was never sure, year after year, he'd won/retain wimbledon another time. This year I may even have more doubt but same with Nadal at the FO and SW19. I really think quite a few players have now a more mature attacking game (including Federer) to challenge Nadal more evenly on every surface....including clay.

Agree here with you Laurie,and also on Murray who I openly disagreed with you.
I just think Murray's choices over the close season when he fired Gilbert and put together his own backroom staff,obviously so no one person would tell him that in any particular match that he might of been a bit crap,was foolhardy.

He is very inconsistent at the moment,and just doesn't have enough to win 7 in a row.

Federer is vunerable,and he's no longer beating his fellow peers.He has confidence problems,the game is there,but it's going missing on important points,which is where he was so strong.He needs any title now to remember the winning mentality.

Nalbandian,I've given up on him.Too many false dawns.

Gasquet has the same problem.

Nadal,well he has really battled on,and he just fights harder when the chips are down.Few weeks ago I would have betted against him winning all the major clay titles again,but it just seems he's stealing himself again to win them again.
Possibly he won't win all of them,but I can see him being in all the finals at least.

Djokovic well I still stick with my prediction that he will be No1 by the end of the season.Can he hang on to it?Depends on Federer finding himself again.

Thanks Brakkus - it's just the way I said it. I agree with you. Murray certainly seems to have the Tennis game. But doesn't seem to make the right choices on or off the court - that's why I don't think he's in the same league as Djokovic - at the moment.

That could change if (when) he matures and makes better decisions on and off the court.

Reading between the lines here a bit Laurie that's the difference between the two.
Djokovic is a man early on in years,and has grasped the mentality of listening and taking advice about his tennis.
Sometimes we all have trouble being told what to do or we percieve it that way,but it's maturity and humbleness to be able to take on board things that we might not see.

This for me is Murray's issue,he is going through this patch of I know best,despite probably knowing and hearing the clamour to up his aggression in his game,but I think he will eventually see reason.He hasn't lost the stroppy teenager knows best vibe yet,but we hope he does because I strongly believe he will be one hell of a player when he does.

I think, right now, Fed needs to show us what a real hero he is and admit that he's not 100%. He ought to do what Amelie Mauresmo did last year and take several months off. Yes, he'll lose his #1 ranking but it's better than making a fool out of himself, in my opinion. Okay Roger lovers go ahead and punish me :whip: also GOOOOO DAVYDENKO!!!!!!!!!!

I agree :D I dont; think Wimby is Nadal's domain either. Basically he reached finals there BUT Fed has been hot and has taken out other potential champions on his side of the draw. And there have been years when Rafa;s draw seemd quite light work in comparison. And of course now there's Djokovic who I think can easily beat Nadal on grass. Then we've got people lile Ancic who love the green stuff. And who knows what Murray will do, or dare I say it asquet, and fo course Roddick who likes grass too. Oh and there is Tsonga, and mayeb Berdych. :shrug:

Anyway for this Wimby I'm going to root for Ancic, followed by Murray and Gasquet and Tsonga. And I like grosjean but he's on the declien sadly.

I don't get why there is always this misconception about Rafa's draw last year at Wimby. He had Mardy Fish in the first round, Soderling in the third round, then Youzhny, Berdych and Djokovic. I was in hospital at the time but from what I remember from the radio he had to play loads of matches on consecutive days also, which cannot have been easy. He then stretched Roger at Wimbledon more than anyone has since Ancic beat him in 2002.

If that is light work then I'd hate to see what hard work would be. :hmm: :hmm:

EDIT:- I'd add that the only "potential" champion Federer took out in his half of the draw was Gasquet, although the words "potential" and "Gasquet" are mentioned in the sentence a little too much. He may have taken out Safin, Haas and Ferrero but I would never have any of them down as potential Wimbledon champs.

Yeah but didn't he have that one where Anic, Berdych and other tricky ones were in Fed's draw and he had a much easier time? And last year I don't think he'd have made the final if Djoko wasn't exhausted. I can't remember exactly who they were, maybe Youzhny or Soderling were involved, he had some long tricky macthes that could have goen either way, makign him seem wuite vulnerable to me. That's my honest belief and I'm sticking to it.

2006 was an easier draw for him I'll give you that. But 2007 wasn't and if Djoko was exhausted that was due to the long match he had in the previous round, but Nadal had to cope with long matches (his matach with Youhzny) and also had to play on consecutive days throughout the tournament. Nadal coped with that and Djoko didn't. That should be the test of a tennis players ability also I believe.

Boris used to thrive on five set matches and then coming in the next day. In 1989 he had a mammoth five setter with Lendl which was moved to the Saturday and he came through that and won the final in straight sets against Edberg. It's a test any tennis player needs to come through.

Not knocking that at all. Credit to those who can come through that, one of the best match players in that respect was Borg.

Nadal's phsycial fitess is his strong point, and a distinct advantage over those who don't have it - and fact it, not that many have ti to his extent. But if you take a more normal Wimby with less disruptions (last year was extreme) then that won't be so much of a factor and I think other less fit players will beat him - as I do beleive Djoko would have. If we have another heavily disrupted Wimby then I dare say Nadal will be a hot favourite for the final.

I am not so sure. Although I love Nadal and his seemingly growing ability to play on surfaces other than clay I have a feeling last year was Nadal's best chance to win on the green stuff. I think Nadal was a better prospect that Djoko last year, but Djoko has come on and has more experience to match his skill now. I rate his chances this year above Nadals.

There are also of course always the "potential" grasscourt abilities of under achievers Gasquet and Berdych.

Of course I am always hoping Nalbandian can do something, but it depends which side of bed he gets out of.

But the favourite for the title is still Federer for me. He is going through a slump, but for me he has the grace, beauty and power needed to win Wimby still.

I agree with all of that - interesting times indeed!

I can't believe Fed lost - we were on the plane back to Britain at the time; when we got to London (where we had to go through Terminal 5 by the way, which I am ****NEVER**** going to do again), I looked at the tennis news on my phone, and when I saw Roddick's picture I knew what had happened!

I had been somewhat worried about this match for Roger actually - a best-of-three-sets match in the US, played at night, was always going to be Andy's best chance to win. And they had close matches before. Still, Roger had his number for such a long time, to let himself be broken in the third set in what sounds like a loose service game doesn't bode all that well for him.

I'm still not going to write him off for this year, particularly in the slams, where it's best-of-five. I was really hoping for a Fed-Nadal final, but it wasn't meant to be. :cry:

If Roddick now goes on to win the title, maybe we should just put this down to him being high in form and confidence, while Fed is not. This could give Roger extra motivation for the clay season though (as if that was necessary).

As Rafa looks to be posting another good victory over Berdych at the moment, will he at least win his first title of the season? Or will we see Roddick (or Davydenko?) win? As a matter of fact, I don't really mind who wins now, as I'd like to see all three of them do well for one reason or another.

I guess it will depend what shape everyone is in, including Nadal. But for the first time in ages I don't have a clue who is going to win and if Fed si not so hot then it might actually be worth betting on an outsider.

I reckon he'll win 1 slam;

Djoko wins RG, by beating Nadal in the final. Djoko will profit from Nadal’s obsession to become no.1 and will be –since he’ll undoubtedly tank a few times during the clay season instead of Rafa’s non-stop race for the ranking points - the fresher one in that final)

Nadal wins Wimbledon by beating Djoko in the final. Once more it will become clear grass is Rafa’s second favourite surface. The SW19 grass is kind to his knees and nowadays as slow as a fast claycourt.

Federer wins the US Open by beating a surprise finalist. Fed won’t play the O.G. (just a feeling) and so he’ll have a better preparation compared with the other favourites. Roger’s game depends more and more on his serve, besides; he is clearly planning to go to the net more often (like we’ve seen the past few weeks) and this should favour him on the extremely fast US open courts.

I could have put this in the bold prediction thread but personally I don’t think the above is as bold as it might sound.

Nevertheless it's hard to predict, this time we just don't know how Roger will react or be able to react, since this slump seems worse than it was a year ago. A year ago he didn't seem to enjoy his presence on court (the Canas/Volandri matches) presently he looks all too often both mentally and physically powerless. Which is harder to solve i guess..

Somebody on Roger's web page posted a commentary about how he looked much better in the Roddick match than he did in the Fish match. Would you agree Tenez?

I only saw a tiny bit of the Fish match Duchess and I agree that yesterday for 2 sets he played solid. He returned quite well. though it wasn't a great day for him, he was a decent one I felt...until he cracked in the 3rd. I believe he was very passive in IW versus Fish. So despite his loss there is a reassuring note that he might be improving. Federer needs a lot of confidence to get the best out of his game and currently it's not there. Difficult to predict what happens next.

thanks :)

Fed has said that (for himself) he considers Olympic Gold on the same level as a slam victory. So I doubt he'll skip them unless he absolutely has to ...

And I'm still hoping for the RG-Wimby double from Fed. He's a champion, he will bounce back ... :pray:

Nice way to put it :ok:
I even heard that Dijko is taking tips from Sampras to learn how to serve and volley better..we all know that he has got a very good serve(there's just so much swing to it) and the biggest factor this year has been the way he plays under pressure..he looks like a champion...especially when he was against Fed..in the tight moments he just played beautifully..its hard when you are up against a player of Fed's charisma.
The point you made about humbleness is very true...I still remember Dijko saying in2006 that he was the rising star and that the only way for Fed is down..I was thinking about this guy being boastful and arrogant but then we have to remember that he was still immature at that time..look at him now..even during press meetings he shows a champion's attitude :bow: I really like the guy...and about his chances at wimbey well I sincerely believed that Dijko would have been in the final had he not retired in the SF against Rafa but then a player has to beat all odds if he has to win the big prize..I guess he is mature enough this year although I believe that he won't make it past the SF in RG but may find himself in the finals of Wimbey

Hi MJT, hope you enjoyed your stay in Miami, you were quite lucky with the schedule :ok:

I've read an article (http://www1.sport1.nl/Tennis/Nieuws/152663/Federer-denkt-na-over-deelname-OS.html) in which he's telling he's not so sure of playing in Beijing. He had some bad experiences in Athens which obviously caused some doubts this time. I'm quite sure if he doesn't win RG or Wimbledon he won't be playing in Beijing. In that case it's the Us open that can save the season and not a possible medal.
BTW; you don't really believe he can win the RG-Wimby double, do you?

Yes I read something like that too a while back, GP. I think he retracted since on a few interviews, probably because he is a big star in China and was probably begged to travel over there by the organisers. However if he is having a hard time before or has a more interesting record to break in the "tennis world", I woudl not be surprised if he were to cancel at the last minute. Like when playing the tournaments, players are advised to inform their withdrawal after the tickets are sold (just before it starts that is).

Pretty depressing thread for Federer fans ! :shrug:

My gut feeling is that Wimbledon is still his most likely Slam to win, even though it could be argued hardcourt is his better surface - he has fewer rivals on grass .In fact Nadals the only player to really push him there in five years .