As many have pointed out - it's closer than ever at the moment, although Nadal needs to win the AO, and Djoko to beat Fed, for Nadal to get within striking distance before Fed has a chance to race back out of view after his poor Spring in 2007.

Assuming that both AO matches go the way Nadal would want, then as has been pointed out Nadal is only 100 points behind with 110 points a possibility if he gets to the SF in Rotterdam (that he is scheduled to play).

This is Nadal's schedule from his website (complete with misspelling of Rotterdam!):

RAFA'S TOURNAMENT SCHEDULE || 2008

START DATE CITY TOURNAMENT SURFACE DRAW
Dec | 31 | 07 Chennai, India Chennai Open Hard 32
Jan | 14 | 08 Melbourne, Australia Australian Open Hard 128
Feb | 18 | 08 Rotterham, Holland ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament Hard 32
Mar | 03 | 08 Dubai, UEA The Dubai Tennis Championships Hard 32
Mar | 10 | 08 Indian Wells, USA Pacific Life Open Hard 96
Mar | 24 | 08 Miami, USA Sony Ericsson Open Hard 96
Apr | 21 | 08 Monte Carlo, Monaco Masters Series Monte-Carlo Clay 56
Apr | 28 | 08 Barcelona, Spain Open Sabadell Atlantico Clay 56
May | 05 | 08 Rome, Itally Internazionali BNL d'Italia Clay 64
May | 12 | 08 Hamburg Masters Series Hamburg Clay 56
May | 26 | 08 Roland Garros French Open Clay 128
Jun | 09 | 08
Queens - England The Artois Championships Grass 56
Jun | 23 | 08 Wimbledon - England Wimbledon Grass 128

What is interesting is that he is not apparently planning to go off to the big three South American tournaments in search of clay points during January-February, but is currently planning to stick to hard until after Miami.

Given Djokovic's stunning recent improvement, especially on hardcourts where the bulk of points are won these days, would that be a mistake of Rafa's? If he does get within 100 points of Federer, should he make a short-term dash to ensure that he does have the No. 1 ranking at least for a while?

I am in two minds, but ultimately if he gets within 100 points of Fed I think he should go and make sure of those extra 110 points as soon as he can, as it could turn out to be his best career chance of emulating his buddy Moya and other clay-court greats like Muster and Kuerten.

If Nadal had won Chennai - he could have had a shot at this AO, it seems. Fed has also a cushion of having played 3 less tournments than his 2 closest rivals and might use those to reestablish a comfortable lead.

Still, it's absurd that Nadal hasn't reached the no.1 ranking yet despite his results over the last few years. I think that, after this tournament, even Djokovic is going to have a points total high enough to have been number one on more than one ocassion. It's not only that all three players can play well, it's also that they've played so consistently on the big occasions.

The rankings game is going to be interesting at least for the coming months. It will also be interesting to see if Djokovic will be able to make Nadal work a little bit harder on clay.

Also, I think Richard Krajicek still has one wild-card left. Just look at what the tournament would look like if Fed were to enter:

http://www.abnamrowtt.nl/spelerprofielen.aspx?SN=48

Hmmm a lot of guys let him down late-on last year, I hope for his sake it does not happen again.

i surely hope not, i got myself tickets for the semies..
Got myself in some kind of dilemma; if Roj wins AO he certainly won't be playing in Rotterdam, but if he loses the semi, he might accept that last wild card of Richard...nah, better to win the AO me thinks

james Blake view of the ranking system. Same as fed's btw : It's fair but for someone who would still hold 2 GS, a GS final, The masters, I see the point of the journalists. As Roger is likely to care more about the slams than the ranking soon, he may have to trade his nber 1 spot sooner or later for his health for slams ! Like Sampras actually did.

Q. It was brought up in the last press conference that Roger could have lost his No. 1 ranking. For a guy who's been in 10 straight major finals, winning eight of them, is there something wrong with the ranking system?
JAMES BLAKE: Best player in the world is No. 1. I don't think there's anything wrong with it. I don't see too many problems with the ranking system, I mean, since I've been on tour, really. There have been very little modifications. But I said the best player in the world is No. 1. I feel like the second best player in the world is No. 2.

It's not really a system you can bluff your way through. You can't bluff the top 10 in the world. You have to win a lot of matches.

I think it's fair. I don't know.

Gee whizz, I think you guys will need counselling if Fed loses the number one ranking... :yikes:

I'm not crazy about Rafa, but surely natural justice says he should a stint at No1, and i say that as Fed worshipper.
Of all the measures of greatness i think being ranked No1 is low on the list, for me it's slams, then the big tournaments-Masters etc because you have to beat the best of the best.
I'm not saying being No1 counts for nothing, but i honestly wouldn't have a clue as the the all time list of longest no1's etc, and it a guy like Nadal wants to play every tournament to get to No1 so be it, he'll pay the price physically later on.
I think there exists an idea of 'moral no1' meaning the player winning the big events-I remember when Hingis was No1 but Venus was in awesome form winning Wimbledon and everything else she played up to the US Open, most considered Venus the worlds best player-despite her ranking.

And after that he was asked another question....

I think he's talking good sense.

Breaking News from Melbourne - the race has been cancelled for at least a few weeks, and more likely a few months.

Yes. That's going to save Fed's holidays plan he usually has in February!

anyone know what the race for second spot it like now? I'm assuming that Djoko has a bit of work to do before he catches up, but my maths is fairly appalling....... :blush:

Yes. Djoko will still be a good way behind, even if he wins the AO. He was 1465 points behind Nadal going into AO. Nadal earned a net 200 pt increase, by getting a round further than last year. Djokovic currently is up 300 pts vs. last year's showing, and could earn an additional 550 pts by winning. The best he could do would be a 650 pt net gain (300+550-200) on Nadal, leaving him still 815 pts behind.

thanks Nick :ok:

The clay season and even Miami/IW will be key for djoko to make up some ground! Though Djoko has a few points to defend there too.

I thnk post Wimbledon we might see a change of hand for number 2! Unlikely before....or after if it does not happen there.

Not everyone's as fixated on one player as you are (positively or negatively), choka ... :P

All good things have to come to an end. Fed will lose his #1 ranking sooner or later. Naturally as his fan I hope it's later, but if Rafa (or Djoko) does well enough to catch him up this year, then good for them. The streak is already rather amazing. :)

Whether this year or next, it looks like we are likely to get into an era at some point where the top three spots (including #1) change rather frequently, with Roger still in the mix, but not as dominant anymore.

By the time a player really breaks through and leaves the others behind him for a while, hopefully Roger will have picked up enough slams to break the record and can safely retire. :)

If Djoko starts to get somewhat close to Nadal, it will be interesting to see how Rafa deals with the pressure of having to defend his gazillion clay points to maintain his rating.

He's never disappointed in the clay season yet, and I don't think he will this year either. But I would like to see Roger pick up a tournament win or two, including the Big One, obviously!

Fed's loss makes things interesting - although as has been mentioned he had a fairly appalling spring 2007, so he can probably increase his lead - plus Rafa has all those clay points to defend.

But (I think) Fed will lose 550 points and Rafa will gain 200.

That's how the ATP shoudl look like on Monday. Should Djoko win....or lose (except that the points woudl be different for him.

1 Federer 7180 1000 450 -550 6630
2 Nadal, Rafael (ESP) 5780 250 450 200 5980
3 Djokovic, Novak (SRB) 4315 150 1000 850 5165
4 Davydenko, Nikolay (RUS) 2825 250 150 -100 2725
5 Ferrer, David (ESP) 2615 150 250 100 2715
6 Roddick, Andy (USA) 2530 450 75 -375 2155
7 Gasquet, Richard (FRA) 1895 150 150 0 1895
8 Youshny 1670 75 250 175 1845
9 Blake 1610 150 250 100 1710
10 Nalbandian, David (ARG) 1775 150 75 -75 1700
11 berdych 1685 150 150 0 1685
12 Murray, Andy (GBR) 1830 150 0 -150 1680

I'll beg to differ on that one :D
My comments about The Cheat are with tongue planted very firmly in cheek... :P

The comments we have had about Fed on here are quite a different kettle of fish altogether... :shrug:

what has been ther problem with the comments about Fed in this thread Choka?? I haven't seen anything other than posters discussing whether Fed might lose his number one ranking - which considering the fact that the gap is closing, doesn't seem a terribly irrational conversation to be having?

Sorry when I said 'here' I meant on CC in general rather than on this specific thread... :)

fair enough :ok: No problem with disagreeing with people, but can you do me a favour and not lump all Fed fans in together, 'cos i'm a Fed fan and well.....it makes me cry :cry: :P

:ok:

Typical Fed fan :P

:chainsaw: :P

well well well, another journeyman entering the top 10, definitly not an era of lions ;)

It looks to me a tough top 10! A fit Coria (does anyone remember him?) or Safin replacing Roddick and it would be even tougher! But hey, It looks like its now tough enough for the best player in tennis history!

T, Please tell me you knew i was kidding..

Of course. Especially as like me you are a Youshny fan! You probably don't remember the long BBC post I wrote about him when he was 40+ in the world! Noone cared about him but I thought he was actually talented even when he was 19/20 when I first saw him at Wimbledon. I wish I could retrieve the post.

:ok:
If i had read that post i'm sure i would remember it, but i can't remember so i guess it was before my posting days, < 2006

http://www.atptennis.com/1/en/2008news/no1.asp

Things are going to get interesting come Dubai.Federer's real test as he won the event,with 300 points to defend.

However come indian wells and miami Rog has only 80 to defend,Rafa has 625 and Djoker has 850 in just those 2 events.

and Nadal is playing Rotterdam this year as well so may be able to pick up a few points there. His biggest problem will be Indian Wells where Fed went out in the second round, and Nadal won it :blink:

Tenez - these are all your old posts on the beeb, have a rootle around and see if you can find it.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/dna/mbfivelive/MP1653885

I'd expect the 1, 2, 3 positions to be the same at the end of the season. Federer doesn't have many points to defend at IW, Miami and Paris, and he should be OK to win Wimbledon again. Nadal will clean up on clay again and do reasonably well at the hard court tournaments, which should be enough to keep him in the number two spot. Djokovic has a lot of points to defend starting at IW and ending at the US Open; if he can make a reasonable fist of defending them, winning a Masters Series or two and the US Open, he might have the chance to go top or 2nd with good runs in the post-US Open tournaments - also depends on what Nadal and Federer have done though.

Fed will become safe again after IW/Miami massive point gain possible exyra 920 points. He is still the no.1 by a fair piece there is some analysis for ranking one Rotterdam-Dubai on MTF and rogerfederer.com to show the eventualities of losing no.1 before IW.

They are very long shots as well.

Yes Dubai is going to be key. Currently Fed and Nadal have 650 points difference. Should Nadal win Rotterdam, the difference will be 400pts. If Nadal wins Dubai +225, Federer would need to reach the semi Final (300 - 135= 165) to preserve his spot till the US TMSs (10 points difference)!

Another problem however is whether Dubai points will be non-accounted for one week as it happens when the tournament is played a bit later compared to the previous year. There Nadal would get to nber 1..unless he hasn't won Rotterdam. All in all i think Fed's chance of retaining his nber 1 till end of march is greater than losing it. Especially considering that Tsonga, Youzhny and Djoko will also be in Rotterdam.

Thanks Barry. I had a look but could not find the thread.Unfortunately there is no search tool for thos posts.

.

I think Djoko will take over nber 2 spot probably after Wimbedon. He has a lot of points to defend, but the way he has been playing he can actually grab some more. Nadal on the other hand has also tons to defend but can he actually reproduce the same Summer season as last year? I doubt it .

I really don't know why the Fed fans are wetting themselves over whether Fed will retain his number one spot. It's going to happen one day folks... :shrug:

Get over it... ;)