We have now the complete 1/4 final draw. Who will make the semi? For once, I don't find those 1/4 finals so exciting. But here is what I think will happen.

Roger Federer SUI (1) v James Blake USA (12)

Roger to win in 3 ....simply because he needs to! James is perfectly capable of dictating as we saw in some of their previous encounters but as we saw as well, it is unlikely to last more than a few games in a row. Especially when he starts to realise he can actually win. This game shoudl really give us more information about Federer's form. Maybe, like it happened in Shanghai, he will finally get the rhythm of the court and will sail to the trophy on Sunday. More likely, he'll keep on struggling as his preparation for this tournament has not been ideal and I would not be surprised if it affected his confidence somehow. Finally I dreamt a few nights ago that Fed was not going to win this AO! in my dream I could hardly read the name on the shiny trophy and guess who was on it? Spadea!!! That was actually the night he played Tipsarevic! I woke up for a bathroom break and checked the score. Fed was 5/3 up in the first set and thought "good, this was just a bad dream". I kept on watching and we know what happened. Certainly a bad dream but like most bad dreams they leave a bad taste the morning after and rightfully so here.


Novak Djokovic SRB (3) v David Ferrer ESP (5)
Ok - Here we know what Djoko can do when he is on form. He will simply tire Ferrer to death by having David doing the screen whipper at the back of the court. This is what happened at the USO. There is however a chance for Ferrer. The slow court or rather the slow balls will give him an opportunity to engage in a real battle from the back of the court. Djoko is likely to tire quicker than Ferrer and in the process might lose his sharpness and accuracy allowing Ferrer to drag him little by little in his own game. Ferrer won convincingly on clay so there is chance here over a best of 5. So to sum it up Djoko in 3 or Ferrer in 5 or 4!

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga FRA v Mikhail Youzhny RUS (14)
I think Michael has a chance here to prevail. He has teh experiece of 1/4s and semis at GS and will not panick. Unless Tsonga plays a stunner, I am afraid it could be a 3 setter for Youshny, 4 sets in the worst case scenario.



Jarkko Nieminen FIN (24) v Rafael Nadal ESP (2)
Frankly this again sounds like a forst round match for Nadal who had it extremely easy again. I simply don't understand how a player can have it so easy for so long. Having said that, despite his draw, he only showed glimpses of form and struggled where we did not expect him to. Like I said earlier, Roddick and Nadal have an easy draw but that does not mean they willl get through easily. The difference however is that Nadal suddenly can step it up and use 110% of his body athletism and he becomes then a very difficult player to handle. I would however be extremely surprised if the winner of the AO comes from the bottom draw.



Djokovic v Ferrer and Tsonga Youshny are possibly the more open matches.

Nice post Tenez, I will give my views - I warn they will be quite short:

Federer v Blake - a thrashing

Ferrer v The Joker - could be a tough one for both, I just tip The Joker but it's too close to call.

Nadal v Niemenen - no chance for Jarko

Tsonga v Youzny - Youzny has a few fans here but I hope he loses. Although realistically I'm expecting him to win.

I'm now in the curious position of actually wanting to have a George Bastl avatar. Ferrer vs Djokovic is the tightest QF, but if Ferrer wins it's a walkover for Fed (whose QF match obviously warrants no discussion).

In the bottom half, Nieminen at least has some belief which gives him a 1% chance of seeing off Nadal, but he won't. Youzhny looks set to perform the role of Gonzalez this year, namely blazing his way to the final before folding cheaply.

Hopefully it's a Fed vs Djoko semi-final with the winner to play Nadal. Realistically, Fed or Djoko will probably beat Youzhny in the final.

Roger plays James??? :o Oh my. I'd like to see Blake win but I don't think he will-maybe a set. I'd like to see Tsonga and Novak win also. have to agree with Laurie-nobody can beat Rafi. :D

I'm gonna agree with Tenez here and say that it's going to be someone from the top half who wins. It would be really nice if Djoko managed to test Fed - and after watching his compatriot come so close, you'd hope that would give Djoko some confidence.

From the bottom half I'd like Youzhny to beat Tsonga, and the only way Nieminen would beat Rafa is ir Rafa is abducted by aliens half way through the match :rolleyes: So hopefully we'll have a Youzhny vs. Rafa semi - which could realistically go either way. However, I'd quite like a better final than last year, so I guess I'd have to hope that rafa wins on the basis that he's more likely to give Fed/Djoko a better match.

No it won't...
Blake never steps onto the court against Federer with an attitude that he can win, it will be a straight sets demolition for Federer who could play at 60% and still beat Blake easily... :ok:

Not that you're completely unbiased or anything.... :shrug:

Tenez said that? I must have missed that one.

Has he been taking comedian classes?

PS, for Admin - don't take my comments too seriously.

Nadal has had a relatively easy draw, but in the past he has had hard draws as well.

I think it pretty much balances itself out for every player over time.

Exactly... :)

Sorry Gav but I have to disagree once more. Even last Wimbledon which was meant to be a tough one had Youshny injured in the middle of their match after being 2 sets down, Berdych non existant and Djoko injured/nackered as well after taking the first set. Another extremely important factor is that he never faced Nalbandian when Nalby was number 3 in the world (for over 2 years).

It will probably even out as you say but only over the next 10 years! For now he hasn't really been challenged before the final and that explained as well why he was such a distant 2nd. If Djoko takes over him, I expect Nadal to be faced with Federer or Djoko before the finals and that could take a serious chunk of the many points he got by reaching finals.

I can't quote stats and dates but I have seen Rafa have some pis eay draws, and Fed havign the trickier ones. if onyl they coudl do a swap I think we'd see s different ending. :rolleyes:

Nadal v Niemenen – Nieminen is a decent player but I can’t recall 1 really big win of his, so today’s result is more than logical

Tsonga v Youzny 0-3, just because Youznhy is more complete, consistent from the baseline and awfully tough too at times

Federer v Blake 3-0, Although I don’t expect difficulties in this match for Feed; this year reminds me a lot of the AO 2006, with Fed slowly running out of gas towards the final stages. The difference is at that time he was quite lucky with the draw…

Ferrer v The Joker 1-3, Ferrer isn’t free of injuries. The Joker is looking very good from the baseline, he will dictate Ferrer

After that;
I’m afraid Fed is not in the right shape to beat both Djoko and Rafa.
But first let’s wait and see what Ferrer (who has physical problems of his own) and Youznhy can do distort this tournament’s direction.
A Djoko-Nad final could be a classic but isn’t exactly what I’m hoping for... :unsure:

I just saw the the first set of Nadal-Nieminen and it was classic Nieminen: brilliant points when it doesn't matter and choking when it does.

Too bad Kohlschreiber did a Nieminen in the previous round. At least he has shown to be able to keep a high level for a longer period of time in a match. I don't say these things lightly, but Nadal has really had the easiest draw possible thus far. Please let Youzhny win the other 1/4 so he'll at least have to break a sweat before the final. Tsonga is much more likely to succumb to inexperience nerves.

Well, Nadal result was as expected - Nieminen was lucky to make it this far, and he was never going to make the semis. Shame Kohlshcreiber didn't see him off.

Fed vs Blake - if I see anything other than a good, strong performance from Fed I'll be heartily disappointed!!

Youzhny vs Tsonga - interesting. I think Youzhny will win, but as has been mentioned, quite what it takes out of him will impact strongly on the Nadal match up. And please - someone - give Nadal a test before the final. Has he even broken into a sweat?! :rolleyes:

Ferrer vs Djoko - in current form, I've got to say Djokovic - and predicted him to do well. However, Ferrer has shown he can beat Djoko (a favourable 3-2 H2H) and can't be written off. Ideally, I would like Ferrer to win - because he'll capitualte in front of Federer. Though the more interesting game would be Fed vs Djoko.

Testing times! :)

So in reality you agree that it will probably even itself over his career, which is pretty much my point.

When you say he has not really been tested before a final I don't quite understand that, are you saying ANY grand slam he has played in so far in his career? I feel he has proven time and time again at the French he is the best there is on clay with pretty much any draw he could have had.

Also he is pretty much the only person to have tested Federer at Wimbledon, so despite his "easy" draws I feel he has justified his position in the finals each time. And as regards to his "distant" position as number 2....isn't he the closest he has been to Fed in a while, also with a positive H2H against him?

I feel Nadal is very much underrated on this board for someone who has 3 slams at his age, not something anyone on the tour can boast.

When we say it will even out over 10 years, it is a way of saying. Statiscally there is as much chance it will that it won't! My point is that he has had very easy draws at times and do not remember him having a very tough draw since he is nber 2 in the world. But anyway I agree it is also down to subjective perception.

Regarding Nadal being underated on this board, maybe, but in my case, though I give him full credit on clay, I have real questions on other surfaces including Wimbledon. He is certainly doing very well versus Federer regardless of the surface because he plays fearlessly and his game is tailored to Federer's weaker BH but take his clay points out of teh equation and my understanding is that his result woudl take him outside the top 5. And had he not had the easier draws in Wimbledon he might now be ranked behind Djoko. To see him having set points down versus Simon, Nieminen and having to struggle versus an illustrous unknown in the first rounds entitles us to question him on hard court surfaces.

Again having said that I know Nadal can be an excellent player when fully fit and confident....even on hard but as mentioned earlier his draws haven't allowed us to make fair assessment.

You just can't accept it can you, that just maybe Nadal is a really good player and easy draws or not he deserves to be number 2... :rolleyes: :shrug:

Have you been going methodically through Nadal's draws analysing whether he has easy draws or not? :yikes:

I think it's time to take off those very biased rose tinted spectacles you seem to be wearing and swallow a large dollop of objectivity here... :shrug:

i think youre right. Every player gets hard and easy draws during their careers, its a mark of their expertise on whether it affects their results. If Nadal can consistantly win tournaments or get to finals, then hes a worthy number 2. If your arguaments against it are 'such a player wasnt playing his best against Nadal''such a player was injured' etc. etc. then you are fighting a losing battle. Champions win tournaments no matter what the draw.

:tsk: Choka,
Can the same not be said for yourself and Maria? :P

well not really, Maria has racked up a load of code violations in her time, there is nothing subjective about that... :P

:ok:

Djoko in amazing form! I am only watching the score but it looks pretty one sided. 6/0 1/0 with Djoko winning 2/3 of points!

GSM Djoko 6-0 6-3 7-5. Sounds like a a bit of a beating in the first two sets there. Well done Djoko :clap: :clap:

I'm not sure what your point is.

I really like Nadal, and I remember defending him quite vehemently when some people were saying at the end of 2006 that he was a spent force and all that.

However, there is no denying that his draw at this AO has been spectacularly easy. Presuming he comes through against Tsonga, he will have reached a GS final without facing anyone in the top 20!

And we all know that, in the latter stages of hardcourt events, the surface starts to take its toll on his body when he has had some tough matches. This may be more so in the second half of the year, but we also saw it happening last AO after the Murray match.

*I* think he has the potential to reach the final, and even win, a hardcourt GS tournament. However, I would like to see him do it by overcoming his problems, not by having a pi$$-easy draw tbh.

There can be no question that Nadal has deserved to be ranked number 2 in the world, though mainly through his clay and grass results - he has not been quite so clearly #2 in his hardcourt results when he's faced decent opposition. Whether Djokovic deserves to overtake him in the rankings eventually, though, is another question.

I don't think Nadal at the moment deserves to be #1 though - before the AO, I would have said, if he wins the AO and gets to #1, then good for him, and he deserves it based on his great results last year, which would have seen him at #1 in most years before Federer. However, having been virtually gifted the road to the final, I must say that it would leave a bit of a sour taste in my mouth as a Federer fan. I'll still say good for him though - after all, he can only beat the opponents he faces. In any case, it's in Roger's hands - if he beats Blake and Djoko, there will be no question of him losing his ranking! :ok:

Very convincing win for Djokovic today, though. He will be a tough challenge in the semis, for sure.

It's certainly going to be a tough one for Fed (if he wins his QF, of course). Two things are going to decide that one: Fed's level of play and Djokovic's level of nerves.

I do agree with MJT about Nadal: usually his style of play tires his body too much in the latter stages of a hard court GS. If he isn't tested before the final, he's going to be much more dangerous than he normally would have been. Just look at what happened recently in Chennai.

I think Liam's point is easy enough to understand. Over players careers they will have easy and tough draws. It just so turns out at this tournament Federer has had a tougher one. Is it Nadal's fault? No. Is anyone saying he is as good as Federer on hard courts? No. Is Nadal a deserved number 2? Of course he is.

If Djokovic can win a slam and get some consistant results over the year to overtake him then he will be the deserved number 2. If Federer does get overtaken as world number 1 by Nadal (which I don't believe will happen) then he will be a deserved number 1.

To suggest otherwise is a little odd.

Interestingly, since 2005 Rafa has reached 5 slam finals, and won 3 of them (the FO of course). He's never got past the quarters of either the AO or the US Open before, and looking at who he's played in those tournaments he hasn't always had the easiest of draws.

And the problem is that Rafa can't control what the person on the other side of the net chooses to do - if they end up getting injured, or retiring or just having an off day, it's not exactly his fault. He has to play who is put in front of him. :shrug:

But I am not sure I understand Gav. Has anyone said said it was nadal's fault? Has anyone said he did not deserve his 2nd ranking? I was observing a simple fact that Nadal has had an easy draw and certainly not for the first time. You might want to interpret that the way you want but please don't pretend to read my mind.

I actualy said Nadal can be an extremely dangerous player even on hard and especially v Federer. Nadal will always be a dangerous player, I never understimated him but at the same time, I would have like to see more battles versus the better players on hard. So far his biggest challenge was nieminen!

No-one said that and I wasn't aiming anything at you Tenez. :)

I just wanted to try to "overstate" things a little just to make my opinion clearer and hope to explain Liam's a little.

I think too much emphasis is put on the draw. Some could say Roddick and Nalbandian had easy routes to the 1/4s. Its how you and your opponent play on the day that matters, and only drawing Fed would to me constitute a hard draw. But at the end of the day, only the person walking away with the trophy will be remembered, no matter who they beat on route

:ok: I was looking through some past results and found that on his way to winning the 2006 AO Fed only beat one top 20 player - the 5th seed Davydenko. But we only remember that he won - beating Baggy in the final. And whoever wins this year will have to beat at least one top 3 player on the way :ok:

wow 2 thumbs upfrom dj in an atp post, im getting good :lol:

:o the first thumbs up was for you, the second was for whoever wins the AO........ :phew: don't want you getting too big-headed now ;)

well when rafa wins, as i reckon he will, i want 2 thumbs :P

EDIT: im expecting Djoko to be beaten by Rafa btw. I dont think Fed will make the final

I'd like to see Novak & Tsonga in the final-but I seriously doubt that's going to happen. :shrug:

ok, when Rafa wins i'll make sure he gives you two thumbs....... :whistle:

Well, all four quarters go in straight sets, and as a bit of a Blake fan, I was disappointed that he didn't manage to beat (or even take a set off of) Federer. But, considering the bashing that some of the posters were giving Blake earlier in this thread, I can at least be happy that he put up the closest match of any of the losing quarterfinalists. We take our positives where we can . . . :D

I don't think it is odd at all. If Nadal had made the #1 ranking based on his AO run, I would say that he was lucky, and that it wasn't a true reflection of his and Federer's relative ability. If he then managed to hold on to it for a long time, my opinion would change - but not with respect to the fact that he was lucky to get it when he did.

That doesn't mean I would begrudge him the ranking - in any other era, he would have easily been number one by now.

And before anyone says it's because I'm a Federer fan, and I'm not impartial, I will say this: if Fed was to win the French (this year or another) with a comparatively easy draw, and perhaps without having to face Nadal, I will say the same. I will not begrudge him the title, but I will say he was lucky.

Of course he might then have won the French even if Nadal was there. Nadal might have gotten to the AO final without such an easy draw. We do not know, and certainly no-one can hold it against Nadal.

In any case, I think the discussion started with Tenez pointing out that Nadal had a *very* easy draw. And people objected to this, or claimed it didn't matter.

Well, I think it is a fair point. With an achievement like this (Nadal's first hardcourt GS final probably, title possibly), players should have to overcome some of the challenges which held them back before then.

I would have liked to see him come up against some of the players who routinely, or even occasionally, gave him trouble. Of course it's not his fault that he didn't, and good for him if he wins another GS tournament, which is *never* 'easy'.

But I think if we try to judge whether Rafa has really overtaken Federer, or is at least getting very close to him, it would be more than a little odd if we do not take these things into account. I find it is hard to judge without seeing him overcome some of the challenges he has faced on hard courts.

Anyway, we will see.