Who do you think will win the AO?

Make TWO choices and discuss them here please!

If you pick 'other' please tell us who!

federer and federer.

Not sure if this is the right thread to put this in, but I doubt many people will care enough for it to warrant its own thread - Nalbandian is now an injury doubt for the Australian Open. Back spasms apparently.

http://sports.yahoo.com/ten/news?slug=reu-...uters&type=lgns

Must say that's pretty much the worst news I could have read ahead of this tournament, with Fat Dave generally tipped as the guy to stop Federer. Then again, he would probably have flattered to deceive anyway.

Out of everyone else, Djokovic hasn't been the same player since he choked in the US Open final, Nadal is an almost dead cert to lose to an in-form big hitter before the final, Murray could well go as far as the SF with a kind draw, but he has zero chance of winning it - like Nadal, an on-form big hitter will take care of him. The rest are a load of rubbish, so it's probably another cake walk for Federer assuming he gets over his virus in time.

Might be interesting to see who makes the final - AO has a tradition of throwing up a surprise finalist (Gonzo, Baggy, Safin 2004, Schuettler and Clement take up 5 of the last 6 years and even Hewitt in 2005 was a bit of a shock given his tragic record at his home Slam). I'll go for Ferrer this year.

Yes, Ferrer makes all the sense. Federer, no way, but Ferrer, yes, after all he just lost the master's final 2- 3-2 against Federer :blink:

MURRAY??????????????
OH PLEASE, DOES WE HAVE SOME WRITERS OF THE SUN VOTING IN HERE?????????????

Now serious if federer is in good condition that's not even a topic :rolleyes:

p.s. I did another read and it seems possible you are just refering to ferrer as a finalist. I guess your shadow sometimes goes up front :whistle:
Anyway it just depends wich side of the draw he gets...

eeerm - the poll says to vote for 2 people, which is why there's some votes for Murray and why Wise chose Ferrer as a second choice :shrug:

Welcome back jamaral - Happy 2008 to you too! :D No, Ferrer has absolutely no chance of ever winning a Slam, but there's generally a cannon-fodder finalist so why not him this year? Back to work now son, those toilets won't clean themselves. :ok:

But wise you expose my secret identity :flash:

:ban:

Now when i want to behave badly what i do?????????????? :cry:

:chainsaw:

Completely agree again with your perspective of the AO08 Wise. One thing however I feel is that Djoko will certainly be the most dangerous player now that Nalby seems injured. I don't think the USO has affected him much. He is too strong a character to desintegrate after those missed opportunities. It happened to Federer in Montreal and we know how he bounced back. Djoko is in my view as strong mentally and knows that what he can do to some, some can do it to him. No one is immune to this kind of jinx (reference to the 0/40 down in Montreal and USO). The AO is just another slam and another year, and Djoko will be very tough to beat i feel.

I had to go with Fed - hard to bet against him really.. but allowed hope and heart to choose my second choice of Safin....

i went with Fed - obviously - and Murray. I really do think Murray could get to the final this year. He's gonna have some confidence from the start to his season, and I suspect some confidence from his performance last year against Nadal. It's obviously all gonna depend on the draw, but I do think he could do very well here!

I'd love to choose Safin, I really would......but as it's Marat and he';s only just recovered from the traumas of mountain climbing, i'm not gonna hold my breath. I would like to see him do well here - make the semis would be good, just to give him his confidence back. plus, i get to see him in more matches ;)

I went for Fed as the cert obviously, assuming he stays fit and well. I agree with a lot fo what Wise says, Nadal is spent and I just don't see how he will have the stamina although ya never know Djoko would have bene my choice 6 months ago but he lost confidence when Fed whooped his ass and he does have his ropey moments. I think it could be almost anyone's this year, but I went for Murray because I do beleive he has come along strong and is getting better. I also think that to beat Fed it takes more than big serves and huge groundies, and Murray has more variety than most. And I'm also hopeful and biased cos I am British :D Who knows, he has a chance :shrug:

There are plenty other names to conjure with though, being as this tournie is very open. There are several contenders for runner up, depending on the draw of course. Youzhny I think is a strong contender out fo the top 20 and he certainyl has the balls and drive. Davydenko :shrug: never quite lifts it does he to get to a final but he will want to prove himself after those allegations. Ferrer - doesn't convince me. Roddick could pull it off but not if he meet Murray cos he's too one dimensional. Gonzo has too many dips, and will need to get in form to have a chance. He certainyl has the guts and passion for it. Gasquet woukd be nice but I fear the injuries and the inconsistency will get the better of him. Robredo - will he ever win a slam? No. And I hope not. Berdych lacks the balls and guts, Haas has them but will he have the stamina and is he injured? Ljubicic - no chance! Early exit for him. Canas :shrug: I like Baghi but he's so unpredictable, if he captures his form of a couple fo years back he can go all the way but he's so 50-50.

I'm surprised no one mentioned Blake as he is supposed to be great on hard, but personally he doesn't inspire confidence. I do think Youzhny is gonna go far though I really do.

I went with Fed like most people and I'm the Andy vote. I think he could do it but will have to step up a few notches to pull it off.

And yes, SB, I was shocked Blake was missing from the list. I'd put him as one of the top 4 on the hardcourt but he tends too mentally break down in the big ones so him winning would be a shocker...

Actually anyone but Roger winning would be a shocker ;)

Agree with your take on the draw Wise.The suprise finalists for me really stretches back to the way it was viewed as a slam.Most players didn't deem it as important,so I guess players didn't build their prep around to peak for it.

The other reason it being so close to the end of the season before meaning that players form and fitness always seems to be an issue.I think this is where someone like Agassi gave the Aus it's credibility almost where he was running up and down mountains in Nevada in preperation.Obviously he got the rewards.

Federer has carried on in the same vain getting his prep spot on in the last few years.Outside of him I like Murray's chances this year,but due to this event and it's place in the calendar it's always hard to judge after so little form to go by.You can only go on form from the indoor season in 07.

Add the uncertainty of the new surface and it becomes harder to predict.Went with Murray and Federer.

i did think about putting Blake on the list, but like you said he's not actually done particularly well in the majors over the last year :shrug: the furthest he's got in any slam in the last year was the 4th round - at the AO and US last year.

But people can put him down as 'other' if they honestly believe he's going to be a shock finalist :unsure:

I guess FED will be ready and fit so on that side he is my fav.. B)

A part from that, IMO, I hope, after Nalbi being out (or really in a bad shape: This is sad I was definitely expecting a final Nalbi-FED, a great re-match of the '05 YEC final :( ) to see the following two players at the top: Youhzny and Djoko.. ;)

I really believe in both: So I hope one of the two being in the final at the end..

The other place, hopefully, is reserved to FED :bow: :bow:

Still without the draw these are dreams.. :whistle:

In reality, I will say:

# FED will be under pressure in his first rounds so IMO we can definitely see a big surprise..

# Murray will be interesting to follow..Nevertheless, I do not give a lot of chances to him in the long run..

# I believe the real "surprise" could come from AROD: If he had the right draw he can definitely be in the last 4 ( He can even win if FED would be out in the first rounds: a possible outcome, with a small probability but still)..

# Rafa, I had the chances top follow live his match against Moya and he is too defensive on hard court: I really do not understand how a guy like him he is not able to have more easy service games.
OK Moya was hot that day in the semi but still..Rafa is just too much under pressure when a heavy power player is there in an hard court..

# Finally, Youhzny and Djoko will represent the real threat to the big Boss if FED will manage to pass easily the first two-three rounds..I really hope to have one of the two in the final.

BTW: the real waste of space at the beginning of the year (and I am becoming really frustrated by his attitude) is Gasquet :doh: : He gave already a couple of interviews in which he was basically saying that playing in Australia was very difficult for him that he had this and that (tons of excuses really :bs: ) ..What a shame!!! Come on !!

You are talented: Start from that and try to perform: Believe and do your job right!!! OK!! I will wait until Wimbledon this year but if he will not be able to perform there..Well Richard you will become just a GREAT waste of space. :D

Good points all along TV.

Gasquet should have been a good 2nd choice by now but as you rightly said, he is already talking himself out of this, which doesn't really encourage his believers. Added the fact that he, AGAIN, had a knee problem during the break forcing him to pull out of Doha (or Adelaide), I can't see him doing wonders in this first slam. Let's see however, it might be a way to rid the pressure of his fragile, falling shoulders.

Hi Tenez (happy new year BTW :wave: )..I changed my signature here simply for that: I like Gasquet's Tennis but if he does not start to believe a little bit more on himself..Well. :moody: .

I definitely prefer Djoko on that side, see his last interview:

"I would be happy if I had a year like 2007, this year," Djokovic, runner up to Roger Federer at the U.S. Open, told Reuters in an interview.

"I would be satisfied but I know that I can do more, that I can go further. I can improve still in some segments in the game and I am aware of that fact.

and then..

"I don't want to feel just a part of that rivalry, or what (the media) are making of my relationship with Roger," he said.

"I look at him as I look at every opponent in the world. Of course, all the credit is to him, all the respect, he is the best player in the world, but that doesn't matter any more.

"It used to be two years ago, when I got to the court with him, or with (Marat) Safin, big champions, I was just trying to play well and pretend to play good.

'A CHAMPION'

"Now I want to win because I want to be in that position, I want to be a champion."

and so on ..

Details here:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/tennisNews/i...625756320080110

This is the right attitude the right self believe the "balls" you need to become a "real" No#1 of the ranking and for more that a couple of weeks. :clap: :clap:

If he continues like that Gasquet will be relegated to the classical (french) dark side: Talented but no way to become a champion . Sad!!! :doh: :doh:

HAppy New Year to you TV. :hug:

As much as I see the potential and determination in Djoko, I am personally more interested in the sheer talent of a player and its personality when supporting them. I don't necessarily support "winners". This is what I like in Federer. As far as i see the guy, he is still the human player who is genuinely surprised by his wins and never has this "I'd kill all my opponents if needed attitude" (Roddick) or A la Sampras who believed that he deserved to win every single slam so did not seem the need to express joy when winning them but only disappointment when losing. Gasquet, unfortunately is at the opposite of this spectrum and seems genuinely surprised of a win over Volondri. But I prefer somehow that despite the many disappointments those players bring to their fans over their career. Safin is another example of a player I like: Talent, personality, underachiever! :shrug:

I'll see how I warm up to Djoko over the years. I changed my view many times on players as they also evolve and we discover new facets.

Happy New Year all!

I have to say, that despite being a Fed fan and having all guns blazing for his ascent to heady GS records this year, I was really disappointed to hear that Fat Dave has got these back problems. I was keen to see what he could deliver in a Slam on the back of two outstanding tournaments at the end of 2007. As Wise says, he could well have flattered to deceive...but I was looking forward to finding out!

For me it's Federer (who looks like he's shed a lot of weight due to this illness) with a not-quite-sure between Djokovic and Ferrer. I'd like to see Djoko get to the final - he's shown some quite brilliant flair on the hardcourts, but he was fading like a flower, to quote everyones favourite Europop 80s band, at the end of the season...whereas Ferrer was on the ascendent. If it's a Fed vs. Ferrer final, then Fed will walk it - Ferrer just doesn't have the game to hurt him, and not sure he has the belief either.

Rafa is going to fold against a big hitter (shame), Roddick is going nowhere (shame - but is there anyone left who doesn't know how to play him?!), Davydenko will be there or thereabouts, Murray - well, if he's not vomiting chicken sandwiches, progressing to the latter stages of the Slam will be a good result for him - I don't see him as a finalist yet.

As for Gasquet :doh: :doh: :doh: :doh: :doh: Richard - if you are already making excuses for not having a strong enough game, you don't deserve to have any supporters or support. My petition is being delivered directly to Bachelot-Narquin (?) to stop your funding effective immediate. Infuriating individual!!

So, allez Fed - you are the most deserving, and this year should really be yours for the taking

:cheers:

I am with you.

I am not saying I am supporting ONLY winners OR ONLY CHAMP (once again I was a big fan of Edberg :-) who was not a "full" dominator IMO)...

Still I prefer among the young guns the attitude of Djoko compare to the Richard's one: Richard is more talented (nevertheless marginally IMO if the "mental" attitude is taking into account in the definition of a great player) if we compare him to Djoko.

Still, Djoko has the "hungry" attitude that FED has as well: They both "need" to become a winner in order to have "well" with himself..

FED was so upset to lose when he started to be a professional it is only when he started to be at the to that he started really o feel well..
This sort of character is the Champion character: Djoko seems to have it Gasquet no..

Might be this will change in the future (near, Wimbledon as I said) but until that moment Richard is losing plenty of points on my personal young gun ranking (I am tired of him unfortunately). BTW: Another name should be considered: Berdy with a right draw can as well represent a surprise IMO.

Hope it is clear :-)

Ferrer bagelled playing Benneteau! :whistle:

Federer for the win and Nalby as my second pick. I know he is an injury doubt but IF (and I know it's a big IF) he can maintain the form he showed late last year he has to be the major threat.....

So basically for me Federer will win unless Nalby can show consistency and shrug off the injury.... not good odds for Nalby but still.... who knows? :pray: :pray:

So jealous of the avatar Gav,classic B)2

I agree with Wise except for what he says about Djokovic, and I agree with what TV says about Gasquet.

Fed must be the favourite - it's probably not necessary to explain that statement.

It is a real shame about Nalbandian, who clearly has the talent and was never afraid of the top players and who after Madrid and Paris had some rare and much-needed momentum.

I can't see Nadal doing it, he is not turning out to be a hard-court GS threat. I think that Murray is not yet ready to get beyond QF/SF of a GS, largely because it is too gruelling for him with a draw of 128 and best-of-five-set matches. He needs to learn not to go walkabout and to save energy by winning matches he should win economically.

About Djoko I disagree with Wise - he always wants to put losses down to a choke. I don't think that Djokovic will let a loss in his first GS final against Federer affect him adversely - he is more likely to learn from it. He is also likely to be more realistic than posters about the extent to which he had Federer for the taking in that final - Federer wins plenty of 4-set matches having conceded the first or second set, he is a great saver of bp's, and he also wins plenty of tie-breaks. Federer knows better than most when to step up and how to stay focussed and cool on big points. It's only really at RG against Nadal that Federer has a bad record in that respect - that's why Federer is a great champion. Djoko needs to sort out his schedule and throw his eggs more firmly into the GS/MS basket like Federer does.

I agree with Wise that a surprise finalist is very possible - you pretty much have to go back to his 'era of lions' to see the AO consistently throwing up finals involving 2 genuinely top players at something approaching the height of their form. Having said that, Djokovic is still a safer bet than trying to pick out a dark horse, hence my choice of him. It is not a question of if, but when he will win his first GS in my view. Unlike Murray he is not so phased by power. However, unless something happens to Fed I think that 2009 for Djoko's first GS is more likely than 2008. I would not be at all surprised if Djoko picks up the Olympic Gold this year though - playing in Serbian colours may give him a substantial boost.

For a check, he male finalists since 1990 have been (winners on the left):

1990 Ivan Lendl Stefan Edberg 4-6 7-6 5-2 RET
1991 Boris Becker Ivan Lendl 1-6 6-4 6-4 6-4
1992 Jim Courier Stefan Edberg 6-3 3-6 6-4 6-2
1993 Jim Courier Stefan Edberg 6-2 6-1 2-6 7-5
1994 Pete Sampras Todd Martin 7-6 6-4 6-4
1995 Andre Agassi Pete Sampras 4-6 6-1 7-6 6-4
1996 Boris Becker Michael Chang 6-2 6-4 2-6 6-2
1997 Pete Sampras Carlos Moyá 6-2 6-3 6-3
1998 Petr Korda Marcelo Ríos 6-2 6-2 6-2
1999 Yevgeny Kafelnikov Thomas Enqvist 4-6 6-0 6-3 7-6
2000 Andre Agassi Yevgeny Kafelnikov 3-6 6-3 6-2 6-4
2001 Andre Agassi Arnaud Clément 6-4 6-2 6-2
2002 Thomas Johansson Marat Safin 3-6 6-4 6-4 7-6(4)
2003 Andre Agassi Rainer Schüttler 6-2 6-2 6-1
2004 Roger Federer Marat Safin 7-6(3) 6-4 6-2
2005 Marat Safin Lleyton Hewitt 1-6 6-3 6-4 6-4
2006 Roger Federer Marcos Baghdatis 5-7 7-5 6-0 6-2
2007 Roger Federer Fernando González 7-6(2) 6-4 6-4

Eh? I'd like to see a source where Sampras said he thought he deserved each Grand Slam and did not express joy when winning. He was always elated after winning slams!

If Rafa wins the AO –he has this Wimbledon 2006 draw again ;) - and Federer crashes out before the semis, we have a new number one.
I guess that’s why Rafa’s playing Rotterdam in February, just in case he needs those last few points to finally take over the top spot. He won’t have that many chances throughout his career to become no.1 and if so; he won’t be there for long, that’s for sure.
I still fancy the chances Roger will win the AO and Rafa won’t make the final, but you never know

Interesting stuff. But I would be extremely surprised to see Rafa go further than Roger in this tournament.

Nevertheless some folk are saying this Flexicushion surface is playing very slow....so I guess never say never. Then again there are so many conflicting reports about the new surface it's tough to judge at this point.

If Fed loses early which is very possible due to his lack of prep or fatigue...then he is also in trouble. But Nadal will still have to reach the semi to overtake him.

I did not realise the race was that close.

HI Brakkus :wave:

Just two pics of Boris and a quick image translation effect using Animation Shop and hey presto!

you make it sound sooo simple Gav :P

Tenez & barrystar, I was meaning to get back to you regarding our disagreement over Djoko's chances here. In my opinion, Djokovic won't be much of a factor in Australia, simply because he has not only lost lots of matches since the US Open, but he has played poorly in them. It's not as easy to just turn the form tap back on again after a relatively long period of mediocrity. The fact that he's looked like he's about to collapse from exhaustion in most of his defeats (albeit much of that might have been down to gamesmanship), certainly doesn't bode well for him given the notorious Australian climate.

I was going to boldly predict that he would go no further than the QF, but now that the draw's out that looks like a less brave prediction. Would still be interested to discover if either of you disagree with me.

Wise - I'd disagree here. I think there is a lot to be said for the fact that Djokovic had 'switched off' at the end of last season. Be that right or wrong, I got the distinct impression he had really stopped giving it his all. Combination of fatigue and indifference? Possibly. He's now rested and this is a Slam - I think we'll see a very different Djoko next week.

My one wonder about whether he can regain form is that, as you say, it's not easy to switch it on and off. However, he's not a new, unseasoned lad anymore.

We all know that 'on paper' and recently Djokovic has shown some incredible hard court flair with punishing ground strokes and a mightily improved serve; he may not get to the very end stages of the AO, but I am sure he will in the later Slams. Still, I'll be very surprised not to see him in the quarters as he cuts his 2008 Slam teeth.

I agree that post-US Open Djoko has not been very impressive. However, I think you write him off at your peril. I agree with Sara that his heart just didn't seem with it at the end of last season, but I should hope that the break did him some good, and gave him some time to reflect on how successful last year was for him. Plus, Djoko has always been one of the most blatantly ambitious of the 'young guns' - stating outright that he wanted to be world number 1 (take note please Mr Gasquet..... :rolleyes: ). I can't believe that a crappy US Open final would really remove all that drive from him. I really wouldn't want to write him off yet......

I'm not writing him off by a long shot. I just think that the signs are there that he's going to struggle to replicate the success of last season, which is normal for any youngster, especially one who had such a breakthrough season as Djoko. The knives are out for him a little bit more, and he certainly isn't carrying quite the same aura as he was a few months ago.

I don't place the blame for this on his US Open choke, after all, after the first set choke, he was able to get himself in a position to choke more key points away, so it's definitely not like he completely folded. I actually feel he's still a little bit fatigued from last season's efforts going by some of his Hopman Cup performances and, coupled with a bit of second season syndrome, he's not going to do quite as brilliantly in the Slams this year. He'll almost undoubtedly win a Slam one year though.

As for this one, there's always the chance that his tough draw will work in his favour because he has to hit the ground running. However, I stand by my prediction: Djoko won't get past the QF here this year. :runs:

I was wondering what Federer plans to do if the gap will be somewhere between 100/200 points after the AO… Will he defend his position and add an extra tourney to his schedule?
(In that case Rotterdam tournament director Richard Krajicek will be laughing his pants off, if Roger signs in, almost the complete top 10 will play in Rotterdam..)

What's second season syndrome?

The struggle to follow up a breakthrough season with another of the same level. Bit of a football cliché there, apologies all. :blush: I still expect Djoko to finish top 5 and do well at all the Slams though... just not as well.

Ah, yes - think I've heard it from my husband in football terms!

End of year top 3? I still say Fed, Nadal, Djokovic....

ah, but in which order? that would be the question :P

I won't dismiss your concern at once, Wise. He hasn’t done much since the USO and there might be a few reasons for that; lack of motivation, exhaustion or worse, injury. The fact he hasn’t participated in any warm up to the AO might well have something to do with the latter reasons and therefore your scepticism could be justified. If it’s injury, like a sore shoulder, tennis elbow (poor serving display in Shanghai) then yes he is in trouble but we do not really know. Knowing him, he will let us know in the middle of a match when losing or leading and will bring the trainer at a crucial moment in the match. if he is, on the other hand, fully fit, I think he can only do better than last year. He is still very young and the progress those youngsters make is usually enormous from 20 to 22yo. If you are concerned about his stamina, then surely the USO should have given us enough information about the tenacity and resilience of the player despite his young age. He gave Federer a fright in the final despite having tough matches against the powerhouses (Stepanek, Ferrer to name a few) of the game.

So in short, you may have uncovered an unpublicised injury but if he is fully fit, I really expect him to be in the final stage of the tournament. And Murray, Gasquet might be lucky he is not in their ways.