Not the three-horse race we were expecting to be fair!

have moved this in to the current tournaments forum :ok:

:admin:

Can anyone explain the maths of this for me before i vote? Who has to beat who in order to qualify??? it's all a bit :wacko: :yikes: :unsure: for me :P

if Gasquet and Nadal win their final matches, they will be equal on points with Ferrer, then i think it goes to sets/won lost, and then if thats equal, its who beat who. So if the table is like this

Ferrer won 2 lost 1 sets difference 3
Nadal won 2 lost 1 sets difference 2
Gasquet won 2 lost 1 sets difference 2

Nadal would win by virtue of having aready beaten Gasquet in their RR match.


If Ferrer and Nadal win, they both go through.

If Nada loses, Ferrer wil be through anyway, then its down to sets again between Gasquet and Rafa, with Rafa advancing if sets are equal, because he has aready beaten Gasquet

:blush: :blush:

Edit: I beieve Ferrer will beat Gasquet, and Ferrer and Rafa will advance

cheers liam :ok:

i think i say the same as you and it'll be Ferrer and Nadal

If Gasquet is beaten, his only hope is that Nadal also gets beat, and loses in straight sets. I know Rafa isnt playing his best, but i really cant see him losing in straights to Djoko right now. If Gasquet wins and Nadal wins, Gasquet will only advance in he beats Ferrer in 2, and Rafa drops a set. Given Ferrers red hot form here, i think Gasquets chances of reaching the semis are about the same as Henman coming out of retirement in 2008 and winning wimbedon

So what eventuality allows Boris to get through? ;)

In fact, im not sure it IS possible for Nadal and Gasquet to go through without Ferrer is it? :wacko: :wacko:

If my calculations are correct,( which i doubt very much :lol:) Ferrer is already through, or only a miracle could prevent him????

my head hurts :(

possibly if Ferrer loses in straight sets in the next match, and the others both win in straight sets, something like that? :shrug:

Yes if Gasquet wins in straights, and Nadal wins in 3, Gasquet and Ferrer will advance. But if Nada wins in 2, it will be Gasquet and Rafa. I stil cant see Ferrer being beaten in 2 though

A couple pints and the comfort of a nice woman???

I'd like Rafa and Gasquet to qualify but it's unlikely. I know Djokovic has hardly showed up for this tournament, but he'll want to leave with some pride. He seems to have the knack of beating Nadal on hard courts, and Rafa hasn't been overly impressive here himself.

As for Ferrer and Gasquet, in terms of tennis ability there's no comparison. But Ferrer is a bad matchup for Gasquet, with the Spaniard demolishing him in the Tokyo final a month or so ago - and not a great deal has changed since then. Unless Gasquet finds a great performance, he'll be left ruing his choke against Nadal in the first match.

Ferrer to top the group and Nadal to scrape through with him.

I think Djoko v Nadal will be the key match. Djoko mihgt throw it again or decisevely make sure to beat Nadal so that Nadal dosn't distance himself from him in the ranking. There is 650 pts difference between getting out in the first round and winning the tournament so there is a vested interest for Djoko to take Nadal out with him but then, it is difficult to get motivated when one knows he is out already.

I haven't seen any of Djoko's matches, but find it hard to understand why he wouldn't try in any of them. The tournaments leading up to the Masters Cup, yes, but not the main event itself. If he really didn't want to play here, he should have just invented an injury - not something he has any difficult doing normally. :P

If it is true, it's a shame, given that Nalbandian would probably have played had there been an early withdrawal. I'd much rather have watched Fat Dave strutting his stuff than an uninterested Djokovic... then again, they might as well have given him the trophy the way he's been playing, and the form of the rest of the players.

Interesting that the Top 4 seeds are now a combined 1-5 against the lower seeds . . .

I saw both of them so far and he probably tried versus Ferrer but was really out of rhythm at first and then he ahd a bit of pressure in the second set while Ferrer was playing more relax.

Versus Gasquet, he clearly threw the end of the match but the main thing is that in both matches, his serve was not there. His serve is a big weapon and without it, he is simly more human. I think he had a ridiculous amount of aces and 1st serve %age. But that might just show his motivation ...or lack of it rather.

OK, let's see if I've got this right . . .

Roddick is in w/ two straight-set wins.
Davydenko is out w/ two straight-set losses.

If Fed beats Roddick, he's in, because he'll have more sets won, regardless of what Gonzo does.

If Gonzo wins and Fed loses, Gonzo is in.

If both Fed and Gonzo lose:
A straight set loss by Gonzo means Fed is in.
Three-set losses by both means Fed is in.
A three-set loss by Gonzo and straight-set loss by Fed leaves them tied in sets won and it goes to other tiebreakers.

:wacko: :D2:


Edit: Sorry. I should be talking about them in the "Gold Group" thread. :blush:

We know Djoko by now (after his infamous losses against Moya and Santoro :tsk: ) , Djoko will be eager to leave the court within an hour.
Sportmanship is the last thing he cares about...
So Rafa in 2, easily

if Fed and Gonzo are tied on sets, Gonzo goes through by virtue of beating Fed in the RR stages

That is a possibility. The other is that unlike Moya and Santoro, Nadal is ahead of him in the ranking and knocking him out with him woudl prevent nadal from distancing himself for the nber 2 spot. Besides, he might want to finish in a high note after all the criticism he has had about his Gasquet match. Finally, There is more fun in beating nadal than Santoro or Moya.

We'll see....you could be right once again GP.

Hey Nick, I just did the analysis in the live-scoring thread, and got the same result.

This is the same as what you are saying, right?

I am not sure that's right. If they are tied Gonzo does go through, but not because he has beaten Fed:

Fed is 3:2 in sets with 1 win
Gonzo is 2:3 in sets with 1 win

If Fed wins he is on 5 sets, the worst he can be is 5-3
If Gonzo wins he is on 4 sets, the best he can be is 4-3

Both win, Fed goes through whatever

If Fed loses the worst he can be is 4-3 down
If Gonzo loses the best he can be is 5-3 down

Both lose, Fed goes through whatever

They can only tie in sets if:

Gonzo wins 2-1 meaning he is 4-4
Fed loses 2-1 meaning he is on 4-4

Then Gonzo goes through not because they are tied and he beat Fed, but because he has won 2 matches to Fed's 1.

In other words, if they both get the same match result, regardless of the game scores Fed goes through.

If Gonzo wins and Fed loses Gonzo goes through regardless of the game scores.

The game scores are now an irrelevance between those two and, I think, between Fed and Roddick because if Fed wins the worst outcome for him is 5:3 each, whereupon he is ranked higher than Roddick.

Now for the Gold Group ... here things are (even) more complicated.

* If Nadal loses, then he is out, *except* if he loses in three and Gasquet loses in straight sets.

*If Ferrer and Nadal both win, then they are both through.

* It remains to see what happens if Ferrer loses and Nadal wins. This is complicated:

- If Ferrer loses in straight sets, then Gasquet and Nadal go through (with Gasquet ahead of Nadal, as far as I can see).

- If Nadal and Gasquet both win in three, then Gasquet and Ferrer both go through.

- If Nadal wins in two and Gasquet in three, then all three players still in contention have a win-loss record of 2-1, and a set win-loss record of 5-3. What happens then? Does it go by most games won? :wacko:

:wacko: :wacko: :wacko:

I think I agree with all that DJ - none of them can rest. :phew:

Ferrer has 2 pts at 4-1
Nadal has 1 pt at 3-3
Gasquet has 1 pt at 3-2
Djoko has 0pt at 0-4

Nadal plays Djoko
Ferrer plays Gasquet

Nadal wins, best is 5-3, worst is 4-3
Nadal loses, best is 4-5, worst is 3-5

Ferrer wins, best is 6-1, worst is 6-2 - he goes through
Gasquet loses, best is 4-4, worst is 3-4

Ferrer loses, best is 5-3, worst is 4-3
Gasquet wins, best is 5-2, worst is 5-3

Most complicated scenario is Gasquet winning 2-1 and Nadal winning 2-0 - then its 2pts and 5-3 all round so I guess it has to be on games won/lost.

Of course, since they are bound to play one after the other the player(s) of the second match will know what is required to go through.

Just as well you cant have a draw in tennis - that might encourage some match fixing :tsk: .

Hi Guys (& Girls, of course),

I just did a bit of calculating:

If they all end up with the same amount of sets in the Gold Group (i.e. Gasquet beats Ferrrer in 3), they will probably look at the game difference. At the moment, it stands like this:

Nadal: +2 (Gasq) -3 (Ferr) +4 (Djo) = +3
Ferrer: +4 (Djo) +3 (Nad) = +7
Gasquet: -2 (Nad) +6 (Djo) = +4

In other words, f.e. if Gasquet were to win 6-3 4-6 7-5 = +3 for him, both he and Ferrer would go through.

crucial match ahead...I am going for the Spanish duo to progress...

I was right all along *smug smilie*

So, whipping-boy goes 3-0 to top the group, and Djoko continued to be a no-show.

At least no complicated tiebreak formulas are needed now.

He whipped everyone really! :yikes: