AIG Japan Open 2007

Tokyo, October 1-7

Official tournament website

Singles Draw

The seeds are:

1. Ferrer
2. Berdych
3. Gasquet
4. Hewitt
5. Nieminen
6. Tursunov
7. Karlovic
8. Verdasco
9. Lee
10. Lopez
11. Del Potro
12. T. Johansson
13. Querrey
14. Roitman
15. Dancevic
16. Russell

Projected QF line-up, assuming players fulfill their seedings:

Ferrer-Tursunov
Hewitt-Karlovic
Nieminen-Gasquet
Verdasco-Berdych.

The quarterfinals in the upper half (if they happen) look rather interesting. The real question, though, is who out of Gasquet and Berdych will make the lower half and pick up some valuable points in the race.

Gasquet has the tougher route to the semifinal, with Dancevic in his eigth of the draw and Del Potro a potential quarterfinal alternative to Nieminen. However, Berdych-Johansson could also be an interesting quarter-final, if the Swede comes through instead of Verdasco.

Monday, October 1, 2007

Singles - First Round

Y Lu (TPE) d D Udomchoke (THA) 67(4) 76(7) 61
I Navarro (ESP) d R Haase (NED) 76(5) 76(0)
M Zverev (GER) d F Fognini (ITA) 61 76(9)
Z Fleishman (USA) d [WC] K Nishikori (JPN) 76(5) 36 61
P Capdeville (CHI) d T Gabashvili (RUS) 76(4) 75
W Moodie (RSA) d S Bolelli (ITA) 76(6) 76(8)

a solid showing from dancevic would be nice. and i'm thinking it would be too much to ask gasquet to win back2back titles :pray:

Yep :) that could make him 7th in the ATP race for Shanghai!!! :blink:

well then he should get it done :D

the gap from 14-7 is tight...

7 Gonzalez, Fernando (CHI) 331
8 Blake, James (USA) 321
9 Haas, Tommy (GER) 316
10 Moya, Carlos (ESP) 315
11 Ljubicic, Ivan (CRO) 314
12 Robredo, Tommy (ESP) 304
13 Berdych, Tomas (CZE) 300
14 Gasquet, Richard (FRA) 293

Results - Tuesday, October 2

Singles - Second Round

[9] H Lee (KOR) d Y Lu (TPE) 61 64
I Navarro (ESP) d [13] S Querrey (USA) 75 63

Singles - First Round

J Gimelstob (USA) d L Kubot (POL) 64 75
V Spadea (USA) d A Delic (USA) 63 61
B Becker (GER) d [WC] T Suzuki (JPN) 75 36 64
J Vanek (CZE) d [WC] S Iwabuchi (JPN) 64 64
R Kendrick (USA) d [Q] H Nam (KOR) 76(5) 67(7) 63
M Cilic (CRO) d [Q] W Jun (KOR) 62 62
B Pashanski (SRB) d [Q] J Scherrer (SUI) 76(5) 16 75
D Sela (ISR) d [Q] S Stadler (GER) 64 75
[Q] L Gregorc (SLO) d [Q] T Terachi (JPN) 64 64
R Schuettler (GER) d [WC] G Soeda (JPN) 63 16 62

Good win for Ben over Suzuki in front of his home crowd. He gave Roger quite a fright last year.

Despite Del Potro loss due to injury, there is no upset today in this 3rd round.

Who will be the next head to fall? I personally would like Ferrer out for the Shanghai race. Not very nice of me, I agree, but I think that Berdych, Gasquet would be more fun than Ferrer who we know can't do much harm to the top players.

:whip:

Looking at the race though:

1 Roger Federer 1171
2 Rafael Nadal 1012
3 Novak Djokovic 802
4 Nikolay Davydenko 485
5 Andy Roddick 466
6 David Ferrer 382
7 Fernando Gonzalez 331
8 James Blake 321
9 Tommy Haas 316
10 Carlos Moya 315
11 Ivan Ljubicic 314
12 Tommy Robredo 304
13 Tomas Berdych 300
14 Richard Gasquet 293

It's surely gonna have to be fairly tough for Ferrer to drop out of the top 8 now? I'm not exactly sure of the maths (was never my strong point) but he's got about a 50 point cushion over Gonzo. He's going to have to do fairly badly for the rest of the year to miss out I would guess :unsure:

Results - Wednesday, October 3, 2007

Singles - Second Round

[1] D Ferrer (ESP) d W Moodie (RSA) 76(5) 62
B Pashanski d [5] J Nieminen (FIN) (SRB) 63 46 64
[8] F Verdasco (ESP) d M Zverev (GER) 63 62
[4] L Hewitt (AUS) d [Q] L Gregorc (SLO) 63 63
[6] D Tursunov (RUS) d P Capdeville (CHI) 64 63
[12] T Johansson (SWE) d J Gimelstob (USA) 64 64
[7] I Karlovic (CRO)d B Becker (GER) 64 63
[10] F Lopez (ESP) d R Kendrick (USA) 62 64
R Schuettler (GER) d [15] F Dancevic (CAN) 62 46 62
[16] M Russell (USA) d M Cilic (CRO) 76(2) 26 61
V Spadea (USA) d [14] S Roitman (ARG) 46 61 76(7) - Saved 2 MPs
[3] R Gasquet (FRA) d Z Fleishman (USA) 63 63
D Sela (ISR) d [11] J Del Potro (ARG) 26 75 53 ret
[2] T Berdych d J Vanek (CZE) 61 64(CZE)

No major upsets here - Nieminen, Dancevic and Roitman are out; Del Potro also seems to have retired one game shy of losing the match.

Berdych and Gasquet both won their matches, as did Ferrer. The most dangerous opponent left in Gasquet's quarter is probably Schuettler, and really Richard shouldn't have a serious problem against him in the next round. Berdych's quarter never looked all that impressive in the first place, so there are good chances for the second and third seeds to meet in the semifinals.

Re: Ferrer; I also would prefer to see Gasquet and/or Berdych in Shanghai, but I don't think he will drop out particularly early here. Tursunov in the quarters could be a test, and the semis are likely to be tough for him, but either way he should pick up a few more points, making it ever harder for him to be overtaken.

Yes, it seems unlikely that Ferrer will drop out of the top 8.

However, he doesn't necessarily do *that* badly. Let's ignore Tokyo and other countable tournaments for a moment, since they make things more complicated. This leaves the two MS events in Madrid and Paris.

These give the following points:

W 100
F 70
SF 45
QF 25
R16 15
R32 7

So suppose Ferrer went out in R16 in one of these events, and in the QF in the other. (This would already be a pretty good showing.) This would give him 40 points. If Tommy Haas (currently number 9 in the race) reached the final in one of the events, and the semis in the other, then he would actually overtake Ferrer in the race.

Still, for Ferrer to drop out, probably what would be required is:

1. Ferrer doesn't do all that well in the two MS events.
2. Two or three people currently below him do well in *both* MS events.

It seems rather unlikely that this is going to happen. To a degree, things will depend on whether the top 3 guys are going to be there at both events, as their consistency means they are quite likely to go far in the tournament, and gobble up some of the points that might otherwise be available. :shrug:

Ok - I am taking away what I said about Ferrer. If he can gather enough points to consolidate his place in the top 8, good on him. I actually like the guy....more than the player.

Gasquet is still going on strong with a relatively easy dismissal of Schuttler. The Ideal semis woudl be :

Ferrer v Hewitt
Gasquet v Berdych

This could turn into an interesting tournament. The winner grabs 50 Race points. A good reward considering there was no top 5 players to start with.

And Should both Berdych and Gasquet get to the semi, the match will have a signifcant impact on the result on the Monday ranking as the winner of that semi should re-enter the top 10 in both rankings!

Thursday, October 4, 2007

Singles - Third Round

[7] I Karlovic (CRO) d [9] H Lee (KOR) 76(6) 67(8) 76(8) - Saved 3 MPs
[8] F Verdasco (ESP) d [12] T Johansson (SWE) 76(4) 57 63
[2] T Berdych (CZE) d [16] M Russell (USA) 64 62
D Sela (ISR) d B Pashanski (SRB) 62 40 ret - illness
[4] L Hewitt (AUS) d I Navarro (ESP) 75 63
[10] F Lopez (ESP) d [6] D Tursunov (RUS) 76(8) 64
[1] D Ferrer (ESP) d V Spadea (USA) 61 76(0)
[3] R Gasquet (FRA) d R Schuettler (GER) 62 62



Re: Ferrer - he's had a good year, and I think he probably deserves to be in Shanghai. That being said, I still feel that there are players who would be more interesting, provided they're in form. :shrug:

And now I'm off to Denmark! (Well, first to the train station ... then by train to the airport, where I'll meet up with Mrs Tribble for dinner ... and then finally off to Denmark in the evening.)

Gasquet won the semifinal against Berdych, only to go down tamely to Ferrer 6-1 6-2. :(

Good for the Spaniard though --- he's pretty much a certainty for Shanghai now, I would say. He's had a very good year.