So, Federer stands on 12 slams now, and is looking forward to matching Sampras's 14 slams. Over a long period of time though, there are 3 threats to a player's career.

1. Younger, hungry players taking over (Fed put Djokovic in his place, and looks OK on this one at the slams, for now)
2. Injury (Fed is a smart guy, his style of play, and his increasingly light schedule are good omens for his remarkable success at remaining free from major injuries).
3. Motivation - if he's doing well in 1 and 2, then it could come down to this.

Lets assume Federer has an amazing year in 2008, winning French Open, plus 2 other slams, thereby beating Sampras's 15 slams, and then picks up a gold medal at the Olympics. Would there be an inevitable loss of motivation after that? How much would he have left to play for?

Or, conversely, lets assume that Roland Garros continues to elude him for next 2-3 years. Would that be bad news for the other players, in that Federer will continue to be driven, picking up the other slams, and still going close in Paris?

Would the Davis Cup feature in his goals - he's only really half-commited to it at moment, and, after the v strong Russians, Switzerland are one of about 4-5 teams with a chance of winning it.

Will Federer ever become complacent at Wimbledon?

Olympics again, but 2012 London Olympics. It may seem a long way now, but with the tennis held at Wimbledon for the 2012 Olympics, that's got to be an inviting future goal for Federer, surely?

Anyway, this is a rather long-winded post, but do people think that Federer can stay motivated once/if he wins the French Open, and matches or beats Sampras's 15 slams record?

I guess that the remaining challenges for Fed are as follows (pretty much in that order, although 6&7 may be higher):

1. 14+ GS
2. Roland Garros
3. More than 286 weeks at No. 1, possibly x6 y/e No. 1's to beat Sampras
4. Olympic Gold in singles
5. Davis Cup
6. Get 6-in-a-row at Wimbledon
7. Beat Sampras' x7 at Wimbledon
8. Calendar GS if he can get it on the way

Plenty to be getting on with.... but...

The way things are going, he may get it his way for much of 2008, possibly even going into 2009. However, it would only take a marginal improvement in Djokovic's quality and confidence or an improvement in Nadal's schedule and conditioning away from clay, coupled with a marginal drop in Fed's quality for him to start losing far more reqularly.

I guess that the 14+ is the main goal; when he gets that one of two things may happen. He may start playing more freely and without pressure thus prolonging his dominance, or he may start reacting badly to any defeats that come or if he ceases to be No. 1 (which he recently said is the only ranking that matters) and ask himself why he bothers - much will depend upon how important the remaining items on my list are to him, especially 3, and how difficult/easy it is for him to remain fit.

Surely Roland Garros is the biggest priority, and once he gets it, it makes it easier for him to reach 14 slams?

Imagine the answer to this question: "Roger, you have a choice, one Roland Garros and no more GS wins, or 3 more at US Aus or Wimbledon to take you to 15 - which do you want?"

I don't think he'd go for Roland Garros - but it's all hypothetical anyway.

(I think he'd go for more of everything actually :P )

Imagine if he manages to win the AO and RG next year. Will that achievement of winning RG for the grand slam and matching Sampras' 14 total slam titles leave him relaxed for Wimbledon, knowing he's already cemented his place in history? Or will it make him feel even more pressure, knowing that he could set new records for both total slam titles and consecutive Wimbledon titles by winning there?

And more importantly, what will he add to his wardrobe next year, to go with the jacket and trousers.

I've been thinking about this (a lot of course) and I think he should dance out on the court to Dance Fever as it goes perfectly with his John Travolta style Wimbledon outfit.

I think that whatever happens he'll feel pressure for Wimbledon next year.

Every scenario is potentially a big pressure scenario - whether he's going for his 13th, 14th, or 15th slam. He's also still going for a magic 6-in-a-row to overtake Borg but will be chasing Sampras.

Even if he's equalled Sampras by then, he won't want to turn up as THE man and promptly lose on his own favourite backyard.

:ok:

I think the six Wimbys in a row will be very important to him no matter what else happens .It will be a bigger feat that Sampras's seven IMO.
If he does win the AO ,which is a distinct possibility, he'll be in a position once again to win the French and hold all four at once.

Ok so everyone here is assuming that Fed will go on to win the Wimbey next year...Of course he'll be under a lot of pressure...but primarily...he has already equalled Borg's record which was far more imp to him...and besides Rafa is getting far too close to it.As for RG, Fed will find it increasingly difficult with each passing year because as it is there's Rafa at the top and Djokovic will prove to be a much better player there IMO...So the numero uno target is the 14 GS...the rest he'll pick up as and when it comes his way I guess.

I suggested this on the other thread,but I think once Federer knows that he is no longer the best,I can't see him sticking around.2012 is a long way off.He will be 31,if he still has his game intact(more than likely)then his speed will have diminished.

Part of Federer's game is how he defends so well.I believe he has 3 years maximum to get the records done.Maybe when he gets to around late 28 early 29 then the slight loss of mobility and flexibility will become more and more pronounced.

He has also been very fortunate not to have many injury niggles which eat away at your legs and back if they happen in these areas.It's going to get harder for him,but 2006 was so stellar,that 2007 was never going to match it,despite him picking up another 3 slams.

I'm interested to see whether he is now starting the process of slipping physically next year.I don't think it has yet,but maybe more into 2009 as has been said then it will become clear.

On the other issue of winning RG.If he wins it,I reckon he will continue to be motivated.I'm sure a lot of Roger's confidence comes from his No1 status,and as long as he is then he may just keep piling in new records.Surely distancing himself from former greats and their records only cements the gathering belief that he will be the greatest.

I can't see why Fed won't win a slam at the age of 30, besides; up till now he's collecting those slams more easily than Sampras. So it ain't like he's running out of time..
BTW; Rog is actually 2 slams ahead of Sampras at the same age.

Regarding injuries: he's not lucky to have ecaped them, it's all a matter of never forcing his body and never playing too much.

Funnily enough, it's "easier" than you would think to get good results in GS's when you're older, because experience counts for a lot in a GS's. A lot of young players tend to give too much in the earlier rounds. The older players know it's better to try to conserve energy in the early rounds. If they survuve the early rounds that way, they will have a lot of energy left in the tank.

Quite an astute analogy,but imagine this.He wins AO and RG next year equalling Sampras at RG and holding all 4 slams at the same time dubbimg it the Federer Slam.He then gets relaxed at Wimbledon eases to that trophy and then really pushes for the US Open because he will be the first man to hold all 4 at the same time and also hold the calender year at the same time. ;) What a feat accompanied by the olympic gold medal!

Well I agree with Brakkus there. Ken Rosewall reached the Wibledon final at 40 or 42, Connors the USO semi at about 39(?) Agassi, thanks to injections after every match reached the USO final at 34 and the way Nadal and th rest are pushing te game physically, I can't see Federer doing much after 30 (though he wants and plans with his physio to play till 35 which is great) .

Scan, your points about experience is a good one but looking at the recent stat over the last 5 years, Hewitt, Gaudio/Coria, Safin, Federer, Nadal were hardly oldies. Slams re actually very physical as well as mental you right.

So in that case he will be holder of;
Career slam
Calendar slam
Golden slam
Consecutive slams
Consecutive slam finals
Consecutive slam semi finals
Consecutive Wimbledons (+ matches won)
Consecutive US opens
Consecutive weeks no.1
Total slams
(I’m sure I missed a few)

But the big question is; will he win another Golden Bagel award in 2008…

I actually didnt think of that! :blink:

As long as Roger keeps winning and staying at #1, he is not likely to start thinking about quitting. On the other hand, not having won RG and beaten Sampras's record obviously gives him extra motivation as well.

Overall my feeling is that, when he stops dominating, he will quit sooner rather than later. :(

If he hasn't won RG or reached 15, 16 slams by that time, he may be motivated to stick around a bit longer, but I don't think that's going to be enough motivation to keep him going in the long run. I don't expect him to stick around long after he drops out of the top 2 or 3.

I would love to see Fed win RG next year, quite apart from all the other feats that have been suggested here. Overall, though, I doubt that next year will be as successful as the last few. It seems to me as if we are beginning to see first indications of his decline. I hope I'm wrong. :shrug:

My feeling is somehow that Fed will have two more good years, but will have started to fade by the end of 2009. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw him say goodbye at Wimbledon 2010.

But all we can do is enjoy him while he's still playing, and hope for the best! :ok: