I believe we created a similar thread at the beginning of the year, Would be interesting to see how we fared so far. Anyhow, below is the current ATP Race standing and with a bit more than 2 months to go, who do you think will make it, who won't?


1 Nadal, Rafael (ESP) 981
2 Federer, Roger (SUI) 871
3 Djokovic, Novak (SRB) 661
4 Roddick, Andy (USA) 401
5 Davydenko, Nikolay (RUS) 350
6 Gonzalez, Fernando (CHI) 294
7 Ljubicic, Ivan (CRO) 281
8 Robredo, Tommy (ESP) 276
9 Ferrer, David (ESP) 267
9 Youzhny, Mikhail (RUS) 267
11 Haas, Tommy (GER) 265
12 Gasquet, Richard (FRA) 258
13 Canas, Guillermo (ARG) 257
14 Berdych, Tomas (CZE) 245
15 Baghdatis, Marcos (CYP) 242
16 Moya, Carlos (ESP) 240
17 Chela, Juan Ignacio (ARG) 222
18 Ferrero, Juan Carlos (ESP) 221
18 Murray, Andy (GBR) 221
20 Monaco, Juan (ARG) 206

It's funny to note that the top 8 (in bold) are almost those that played last year and that includes "guests" like Gonzo, except for Blake who was replaced by Djoko and may not be in a position to defend his title....Like Nalbandian last year.

My pick is:

1 Federer, Roger (SUI)
2 Nadal, Rafael (ESP)
3 Djokovic, Novak (SRB)
4 Davydenko, Nikolay (RUS)
5 Roddick, Andy (USA)
6 Youzhny, Mikhail (RUS) 267
7 Blake
8 Ferrer

Gasquet, Richard (FRA) (my joker) to replace one of the last 3.

I would like to see Blake and also Gonzo make it. I have a funny feeling Ferrer might just miss it. Other guys I wouldn't mind seeing in Shanghai are Tommy Haas, Youzhny, Berdych, Gasquet, Baggy. And Murray of course, but that doesn't look so likely now; hopefully things will be better next year.

If I had to make a prediction, let's see ... Roger, Rafa and Novak have already clinched it, and Davydenko and Roddick are probably as good as in. So that leaves three places really open.

I'll say Blake, Gonzo and Tommy Haas with my heart. With my mind, I'll say Gonzo, Ljubicic and Youzhny.

Probably both are going to be way wrong now ...

I am going to be frank but Ferrer will not threaten anyone at the top so I am not sure I want him to qualify even though I like his fighting spirit.

Looking at the race standings now, Haasy isn't too far away, fingers crossed!

True. But he really could have done better in Thailand ... although, after having dropped out of the DC semi against Russia, I didn't expect too much from him this week.

Not much movement in the Race after this week; the biggest news is Gasquet moving up two places. There's no movement in the top 10 at all.

Nonetheless, with both Gasquet and Berdych picking up a few points this week, things are getting even tighter ahead of Shanghai. Current No. 14 Gasquet is less than 100 points away from No. 6 Ferrer, and less than 30 from current No. 8 Blake. Berdych going out in the semi-finals in Mumbai missed a big opportunity to go up the race; if he had won the title, then I think he would have been just one point behind Blake. :o

So there's a lot to play for in Tokyo for these guys. Ferrer, Berdych, Gasquet and Hewitt are the top seeds here, and this is a big tournament, worth quite a few points. Whoever out of Berdych and Gasquet comes from the lower half of the draw will considerably strengthen their bid for Shanghai. (That's provided that one or both actually makes the semis.) Based on last week's form, my money would be on Gasquet, but you just never know with him ... :rolleyes:

The race is really heating up now.

This week, Gasquet and Robredo both jumped up 4 places, Robredo replacing Blake at No. 8 and Gasquet entering the top 10, only one point behind Blake and seven behind Robredo. Berdych is close at Richard's heels, edging in at No. 11, just one point ahead of Tommy Haas.

If we accept that Roddick, Davydenko and Ferrer are basically safe, barring disaster, we have a hot competition among

7. Gonzalez 331
8. Robredo 327
9. Blake 321
10. Gasquet 320
11. Berdych 317
12. Haas 316
13. Moya 315
14. Ljubicic 314

Look how tight this is! Only 17 points separate 7 and 14, and any points they might pick up this week may turn out to be crucial

Youzhny, Canas, Chela, Hewitt and even Murray and Baghdatis are not too far behind, and one of them (perhaps Youzhny?) could still make a push for it, but it is likely that it will be fought out between these guys.

I do hope hope that Robredo won't make Shanghai; I don't think he added much to the competition last time, and there are much more interesting players in the mix. I feel similarly (though not as strongly) about Ljubicic; Moya seems to have sabotaged himself a little bit this week.

I wouldn't mind seeing any of the others in Shanghai, to be honest. My preferred choice would probably be Blake and Gasquet --- Blake in Rafa's half would be interesting, and Gasquet can always be good for a surprise; he also seems to have been finally getting more consistent. Berdych has done really well this year, and Gonzo may have had a slump in the middle, but if he picks himself up now, he would also be a deserving contender. Finally, Tommy Haas had patches of brilliant form this year, and this might be his last chance to qualify for the Masters Cup, so I wouldn't mind him getting in either.

Overall, look at the quality in that field! It's rather impressive, if you ask me.

I'd like either gasquet, Moya, Haas, berdych or Blake to make it. I have a soft spot for Youzhny too - he's incredibly unpredictable but he's a fighter and I think he could make life quite difficult for some vof the top players.

Neither Gonzo nor Robredo's form has been that great towards the end of the year has it? And let's sincerely hope Ljuby doesn't make it - not one too do well under pressure (having said that neither's Blake ;) but at least he has some personality...... :whistle: )

Well, at least Blake has been known to make life difficult for Nadal, and the Spaniard should have a challenge to overcome here --- although Djoko and Fed should provide challenges of their own, if/when he meets them. :)

As for Gonzo, he had a really good run at the beginning of the year, and then slumped off, but recently seems to have rediscovered his form a little bit (despite the horrendous performance in DC). Last year, his indoor season was fantastic; if he can repeat that, he should be able to make Shanghai. Otherwise ... probably not.

PS. Did you read the story on the ATP site ... "Mountain Man Marat Back to Earth"? roflmao ... I noticed in particular the comment

:blink: :wacko: :yikes:

Yes, not much to decide between those players. My choice is clearly for Gasquet, for the obvious reason :rolleyes: , but also because I think he is one player that lost a very stupid match in the FO that otherwise could have given him a great run and many points. I also think it is a shame he had to withdraw at Cincy and at the USO with injuries where he coudl have gained enough points to be in the top 6 if not top 5 of the race already.

The other reason is that if he plays a round robin, he is less likely to have pressure and this format shoudl help get the best out of his talent and we know he has the skills to challenge the top 3...or definetly getting there which is something much less obvious for the other contender.

Blake and Berdy are the ones I want to see up there!

Course wanting and getting are two different things, and like you say, its definitely hotting up competition wise...

Let's have a look at those out of the 8 players I mentioned above that reached the QF or higher this week, and what that will do to their points.

If I am correct, then Vienna is an International Series Gold event, and both Vienna and Moscow will give 22 for a SF and 12 for a QF. (Winner/Finalist will receive 50/35). In Stockholm, I think there are only 18/10 points for SF/QF (40/28 for W/F).

7. Gonzalez 331
He went out in the QF in Vienna. So he will gain 12 points for a total of 343.

9. Blake 321
Blake is in the semifinals in Stockholm, meaning he will get at least 18 points. This will replace the Houston SF at 15, meaning he gains only 3 points, putting him at 324 so far. If he wins today, he will pass Robredo again; if he takes the title, he will move past Gonzo.

12. Haas 316
Tommy, like Blake, is in the semifinals in Stockholm. However, he has played fewer additional tournaments; his lowest score is 8 for the Houston QF. This means he gains 10 points, actually putting him past Blake, and one point behind Robredo at the moment. Whoever goes further in this tournament out of Blake and Haas will pass the other in the race.

14. Ljubicic 314
Ljubo lost his perfect record in Vienna this week, going out in the QF. He will gain no points from this, since his best other countable event is a SF in Beijing.

So the main movement after this week is likely to be due to Blake and Haas.

what will happen to Gasquet and Berdych then? will they drop down the race?

And MJT, you're very handy to have around to work this type of thing out - thanks :hug: :)

I think Gasquet and Berdych are behind Blake but ahead of Haas at the moment --- so they should drop one place each if Haas moves past them.

Of course I'm not giving any guarantees that these numbers are entirely correct; they were done on the fly ... in particular, i might have gotten the number of points wrong that they each get, since this seems to be very hard to determine. (You would think the ATP would put some such facts on the tournament information.)

What happens now as Haas lost today? :(2

The ATP site says that Haas actually will now be at No. 8, passing Robredo --- which means that I must have gotten it wrong; easy to do when things are so tight.

Blake also went out, meaning that he actually drops to No. 10, with Haas passing him. However, the gaps between Haas-Robredo-Blake are so tight that everything is still to play for in the MS events. But if it ends up being very close at the end of the year, both Blake and Haas may end up kicking themselves for going out in the SF here.

Davydenko just won the first set in Moscow. I haven't done the maths, but I think that, if he wins this title, he will have qualified for the Masters Cup. Unless I am very much mistaken, for anyone other than Roddick or Ferrer to overtake him after winning this title, they would need to at least be a finalist in *both* remaining MS events, as well as pick up plenty of points from a third event. This would mean that at most four people have any mathematical chance of overtaking Davydenko, meaning he will finish at least at number even if he stops playing and all circumstances conspire against him. (If I am right.)

Of course, all this is only theoretical speculation --- for all practical intents and purposes, it was long ago clear that he was going to be there.

On the ATP site, it said nothing about Davydenko being qualified for the Masters cup. But unless I am very much mistaken, he should now have 530 points, putting him almost 200 points ahead of the No. 7 in the race.

Now, it seems to me that the worst-case scenario is that Gonzo and Haas (No. 7 and 8 at the moment) both reach the Madrid and Paris finals, with one title going each way, so that they each gain 170 race points from the MS events, and then also both win an additional title in between to take them beyond Davydenko, and that Roddick and Ferrer somehow also gain enough points to pass him. After that, I don't think there would be enough ranking points available for *yet someone else* to gain 200+ points.

So to me it seems like Davy is actually a mathematical certainty for qualifying. If someone can come up with a scenario where he fails to qualify, I would be interested in seeing it --- maybe I've been reading the facts wrong. :shrug:

Ok, I obviously have too much time on my hands. As far as I can tell, the best three different players can do in the remaining three tournaments is to each gain 190 to 195 points:

Player 1 wins Madrid, reaches SF in Paris and wins Basel: 100 + 45 + 50 = 195.
Player 2 wins Paris, reaches SF in Madrid and wins Lyon: 45 + 100 + 45 = 190.
Player 3 reaches the final in Madrid and Paris and wins St. Petersburg: 70 + 70 + 50 = 190.

I *think* Tommies Robredo and Haas both would need more than 190 points to move past Davydenko. So if I got all the numbers right, it seems Davydenko is through, even without accounting of the fact that not all of the points from the additional tournament will count anyway (because another tournament will need to be dropped.) But it's still a lot tighter than I thought!

I guess the ATP just doesn't want to go through these kind of calculations, and just checks whether the current No. 9 player could still pass Davydenko --- which he obviously could. Since he is through for all intents and purposes, Kolya is unlikely to lose any sleep over this anyway ... :)

MJT, it could be that the ATP only update their rankings on a Monday, and therefore their little maths elves won't have done their calculations yet......

keep an eye out on the ATP website tomorrow maybe??? :unsure:

Exactly, they usually update the tables between midnight and 8am gmt.

Yes, but in the article on Davydenko's victory yesterday, they said explicitly something like 'he made a giant step towards qualifying for Shanghai' ... and usually in the match reports, they do report on what consequences it has for the race to Shanghai. (For example, when Haas lost, they said he was still going to get to #8 in the race, even though this was on Saturday.)

But, sure enough, today they have the news that he qualified. :)

Ok, I had the points for Stockholm wrong in my original calculation - it's 20 points instead of 18 for a SF.

This means that Tommy Haas is now one point ahead of Robredo, instead of one behind ... further evidence how tight the race is! :o

I think the way the 1/8th finals shoudl shape up in Madrid are going to be very key for Shangai.

1 - Haas v Gonzo then possibly Davydenko
2 - Gasquet v Blake then Djokovic
3 - Berdych v Robredo then Nadal
4 - Lubo v Ferrer then Federer

I can see Haas getting the better of Gonzo and maybe a tired Davydenko so getting 45 (25 at worst) points and Gonzo 15 is certainly a possibility.

Robredo would be my pick over Berdych but both losing to Nadal this time. So Robredo getting 25pts max and Berdych 15

Lubo could get the better of Ferrer but again both would lose to Federer
so Lubo 25, Ferrer 15 (or the other way around)

Then Gasquet and Blake are both capable to beat Djoko so this could turn also into a 15 points for one and 45 for the other if one of those 2 reaches the semi and why not the Final as they could also take Nadal out. 70 points would almost gurantee them a terracota statute.

So all this looks complicated but in short I think Robredo and Berdych have little chance to score heavily here, while Lubo (to a lesser extend), Haas, Gasquet and Blake could make a real entry into Shangai's 8.

Having said that I can see Del Potro taking out Robredo in the next round or in form PHM and Ancic taking Gasquet and Blake respectively.....

The race is certainly very open.

It certainly is.

I actually don't see why Berdych shouldn't have a chance to get past Robredo, and he was able to beat Nadal last year, so why not today? More likely than not, it won't happen, but perhaps the extra motivation of Shanghai will help.

Regarding Nadal - he first has to face Baghdatis, then possibly Murray, and then Berdych. He has a good chance to come through all of these, but coming back after a long break, it might be quite an ask.

But on the other hand, Baggy has been rather shaky this year, and it might be Chela and Robredo instead of Murray and Berdych - in which case things look a lot easier for Rafa imo.

The friendly guys at the ATP have conveniently produced a list of the current standings in the race to Shanghai, after Wednesday's mass exodus of seeds:

So Gonzo may have a chance to virtually clinch his place at the Masters Cup with a good run here --- leaving only one place really up for grabs (unless one of the others comes up with something spectacular in Paris to pass him). And if Murray could pull off the upset tomorrow, a good run could put him right back in the mix with the contenders in Shanghai! :o That's a testament to how good his season was before his injury.

how's that for predicting skills from Tenez? :ok:

:clap:

Yep - Looks like none of these players want to go to Shanghai. Almost as if they made sure they could plan their end of year Holidays without being bothered by a tiring trip to the end of the world.

By reaching the QF, Gonzo now has 368 points. Karlovic or Kiefer next --- if Gonzo can win that one, he will be difficult to catch in the race for Shanghai. :ok:

Apparently Roddick has now qualified - although the maths behind how he's managed to do that without playing is beyond me...... :unsure:

:blink:

Well, as we discussed about Davydenko, essentially the only way most players below him could still overtake was if they both did well in both MS events (this was prior to Madrid).

With most of the contenders dropping out early in Madrid - Gonzo is the only one still in, I think - the only tournament during which anyone else can still pick up lots of points is Paris. If you look at the points, he is more than 100 points ahead of No. 8 Tommy Haas. If Tommy does well in a tournament next week and wins Paris, he *could* still overtake Roddick. But then there wouldn't be enough points left for anyone else to overtake him as well, and knock him out of the top 8.

It's the same thing as when Murray broke into the top 10 this year without playing ... it doesn't just depend on the player, it depends on the other contenders as well ...

I'm confused too. Does this mean Boris will make it as well? ;)

We can only hope. :)

If he pays the bills, I can't why he shoudln't be able to go to Shanghai.

www.ba.com is a good starting point.

Roger is now already leading the race by more than 200 points. If he picks up 50 more points - e.g. by winning Basel next week, or by winning Madrid and reaching the semis in Basel - I believe he will have clinched the #1 spot even before Paris begins.

Yes to make it official...but realistically, the job is done., isn't it? I can't see Nadal winning everything that's left out there and Federer losing it all.

Of course. I was only talking about mathematical certainty. E.g., if Fed wins today, then Fed winning one match at Shanghai, or Nadal losing one, would be enough, no matter what else happens - and I think on current form, it is very unlikely that Nadal wins Paris (or that Fed loses all his remaining matches for that matter) ...

Still, it may take some pressure off at Shanghai and at the beginning of the year, which is good. I would like to see Fed going into the AO with enough of a cushion to maintain his #1 at least until IW --- at which point he will have a chance to actually pick up some points! :o