Thought this is an interesting question --- Nadal got close this year, but that is no guarantee that he will be able to win it next year. I thought it would be interesting to see when people think Roger's reign at Wimbledon will come to an end.

Despite winning 2 GS out of 3, I do not think this is a vintage year for Federer. At 25/26 he should be in his most dominant form having his fitness peak year and more experience ..but that does not seem to be the case as he has been struggling since Feb/March. Is it the beginning of the end or just a dip in form? Of course the other players have their say as well and it is not all in Federer's hands.

I see him equalling Sampras 7 Wimbeldon titles. He might lose in between but he will want to get 2 extra titles at least. This is going to be his next mission...with the French.

That's a pretty downbeat assessment! I'd go for the 'glass half-full' look at things here. Federer is a smart cookie, and playing the long game, and his priorities are very much for a long career with lots of slams. Since 2004 he's probably not cared about the run-of-the-mill ATP tournaments, and now, I don't think he even cares that much about the Masters events (with the exception of the claycourt ones building up to French Open) - he's only really bothered about the slams.

Its inevitable that as Nadal has improved, and more young players come along, that Federer will have more of a struggle winning the slams. We may even be coming towards the end of his stranglehold on 3 out of the 4 slams, and on that number 1 spot.

I think that from now until end of 2008 we will see a gradual change in things at the top - Federer will still be winning slams, but more like 1 or 2 a year rather than the current 3 a year. The Masters events will be shared between the likes of Davydenko, Roddick, Robredo, Nadal, Djokovic, Murray and Gasquet, but Federer will still be the man to beat at slams, although more reminiscent of say Agassi (always a contender, but not dominating every slam).

Next Wimbledon - well, Federer may be brilliant on the grass, but he is due a duff Wimbledon, and Nadal gave him a real scare this year - I'd look to Murray, Djokovic, or a fresher Gasquet to beat him there.

I think he can win for the the next 2 years......however u never know what can happen with injuries and unforeseen events.

I think he'll win again next year . This year was a struggle, but I have the feeling we still havent seen the best of him on grass. He's due a 'purple patch' final like McEnroe in 84 or Sampras 99 .Winning Wimbledon without dropping a set is well within his ability .We did see that in the final set on Sunday.
Beyond that, who knows .He'll have to lose some day and as Ace says injury etc.can happen anytime .

To put things in perspective regarding Nadal closing in on Federer, Federer won 4 of his last 6 matches against Nadal and the 2 matches Nadal won were on clay.

Exactly, Tenez, and the way people are talking you'd think Federer was in decline . Plus he hammered Nadal in Hamburg .He has had a slight dip in form this year but put it in perspective .

Yes I know, this applies to me.... ;)

Ive just twigged !
You're Roger Federer ! :D

Just call me Roger..... :P



I meant the "putting it in perspective" of course as I first gave a "downbeat" outlook at first.... according to MrI.

i also think the no 1 ranking is going to lose some value to him.. i agree with an earlier post.. his focus will be now to achieve bigger goals and leave the smaller tournaments and lesser goals to others

Exactly, being number 1 is probably far less important to him now than it was a couple of years ago. He's broken Lendl's record on number of weeks spent being number 1, but what matters to him at this stage of his career is winning slams, and virtually nothing else (with exception of Olympics Gold, end of year Masters Cup and one of the claycourt Masters events).

Number 1 though is the big objective of Nadal and Djokovic at the moment. That said, you've got to say that the schedule at Wimbledon showed the advantage of being world number one (starting play a day earlier than everyone else).

I am not sure I agree with this regarding the top ranking spot. It is way too early for now. The number 1 ranking is everything for all players. This is an ego thing as well as a financial one. And once they have tasted the sweetness of the top spot, going down is most likely a painfull process. I can see Federer fighting for nber 1 for the next 2 years.

Once a player goes down the ranking to nber 4, 5 downwards, then I agree that they probably develop an opportunistic approach of winning slams while they can. Being number 1 does not mean you will win the slam so they are all more or less with a chance. Federer will probably see himself as a contender to any Slam title until he retires, so in that respect I agree with you but He will only give up the number one ranking with a fight.

I feel ...

As well as that, once they lose the no. 1 spot after a long time, their air of invincibility tends to go with it . And it can be the start of their decline, when more and more people start to beat them .So yes it is important for Federer .

I agree totally with Tenez when he says taht the no1 spot is a matter of Ego.Federer is always called the number 1 in the world and lose that status will definitely weigh down upon him,he having held that post way too long hey but what am I talking here.?.Fed will remain at the top for a long time for sure but I feel Nadal will win the wimbey next time..if health permits.Fed is sure at his peak but Nadal is still getting to it.Only Nadal can beat him on grass.

On average, people seem to think 2009 ... which agrees with my feelings.

I also thought the last option is intriguing --- suppose (hypothetically) that Fed won all four slams and the Olympics next year. Would he really have a lot to go on for?

Somehow I don't think Roger is the kind of person who would retire when he feels he still has a number of slams in him. But you never know ...

And yes, I think Roger will want to hang on to #1.

I'd second this as well - its something he takes a lot of pride in I feel. That said, if he is going to focus more on just the slams - especially the french, he is going to have to expect to be fighting for that spot - lots of good contenders out there.

Personally, I think it would be good for him if he does want to hang onto it - I dont want to watch Fed just focused on slams - I want him focused on it all - but then I am greedy like that!

other than Wimbers, this year hasn't been stunning for Fed

perhaps next year he'll try to concentrate on getting all 4 slams?

*wonders what Nadal would think about that :rolleyes: *

Concerning the number 1 ranking: it could be in Fed's favour if Djokovic really breaks through. Djokovic's power game is always going to be more of a threat to Nadal than to Federer. Djokovic could make sure Nadal isn't the only one to win the big tournaments besides Fed.

People have been saying Fed hasn't been challenged by anyone besides Nadal, but it can also be said that Nadal hasn't been challenged enough by anyone besides Fed.

One of the reasons Sampras was able to be number one for so long was that his challengers weren't very consistent. Agassi was the only one with the same hunger for big titles, but even he usually didn't play as consistent as Nadal has been playing the last few years. Sampras other challengers consisted of the likes of former champions past their prime (Becker, Edberg) or younger players who were either too limited (Chang, Muster) or too inconsistent (Kafelnikov, Stich, Ivanisevic).

Fed is always going to be able to dismantle the games of players who simply hit big and flat, while Nadal tends to have more trouble with the powerhitters on faster surfaces. Today's young players tend to play the big game, because it tends to generate the best results on average. Murray is an exception to the rule: he has the potential to beat both Fed and Nadal if they play below their best, but he will always be susceptible to unnecessary losses.

In short, although Nadal is hot on his heels now and could even overtake the number one spot in the next year, it doesn't mean Fed won't be able to take it back if more challengers arrive on the scene.

Concerning more Slam wins: I still don't anyone besides Nadal really giving Federer a hard time in a best of five match. Sampras won quite a few slams by beating a surprise finalist, because, like Federer, he was able to reach the latter stages of a Slam without wasting too much energy. His challengers were always going to be susceptible to surprise losses because their inconstency or energy-consuming style of play meant they could succumb to fatigue or a dip in form, even before the final. I think Fed still has a few "easy" Slams he can win, especially on Wimbledon, because I'm not convinced Nadal is going to reach the final of Wimbledon easily next year.

That's interesting just in itself. He's won two slams and reached one slam final. For most people, that would be a stunning year. However, we expect more from Roger ...

I think he's had a great season already. If he can win the USO and hang on to the #1 ranking, I would say it's a fantastic year. Not as good as last year, perhaps, but still hugely impressive.

I seem to think that he has had a great year thusfar.We cant expect him to do what he done for the last 3 years.I also seem to think that the rest of the season might shape up quite nice for him.Expecting a few more titles and big ones at that!

Hi Darky - Good to have you back.

His achievements this year are excellent but expectations after last year's masters and the AO were pretty high. I thought the FO was in his grasp but Nadal upped his game while Fed's lost a bit of form. He is fighting like a lion and this is why he is doing well...I m curious to see whether he can get his baseline game to where it was.

Good To be back Tenez,was very sick. Yes he has had a great year thusfar,I mean I know of players that would kill to have his achievements for this year alone for their career to look stellar.

Interesting point about his baseline game,its not where it should be because had it been there he would have KOd Nadal quicker in that final,nevertheless it made for great tennis.Given the pace of the US hardcourts he is gonna have to get it up really quick especially for the US Open as those courts are lightening fast.We saw glimpses of vintage Federer in the last set at Wimbledon with the forehand being great.How was that last point of that match?Thats the way he should be playing consistantly.

Sorry to hear. I was not aware you were ill. Hopefully, nothing too serious.

Exactly. in 7 months he achieved what a great player like Rafter achieved in his whole career, slam wise....bar another slam final I believe.

. I am glad you saw that as well. Hitting the ball with a tiny bit extra pace and/or angle makes the difference between setting the next shot for a nice winner (as in the MP) or simply having to rally with Nadal on Nadal's terms.

:yahoo: :yahoo: Darky s back..Come on man : I really hope now everything is fine...You are just back at the right moment..Fed season has been great until now: What I like it most to be honest it is the way in which he was able to handle his first serious crisis from since 2004 ,i.e. since he became No#1: I amen the Volandri defeat was hard..But then his ability of fighting back and then win Hamburg and reach the final at RG and then move on, despite the defeat..And offer us that final at Wimbledon in which he fight against anything (i.e. even against the last technology)..Anyway: a really all time great Champion ..And really happy to see you back amn..You are an asset here.. :bow: :bow:

Excellent post!! :ok: Can't think of much more to add to that, except to say that the ease with which the next couple of years can be predicted isn't so straightforward, even with as good analysis as you have provided of the way things were in the 90s (that is bang on!). People predicted an extended period of dominance for Safin, Hewitt and Roddick in the early 2000s, and it didn't materialise. i'm sure that people didn't expect Agassi to go quite off the rails so much in the 1990s either. In view of that, it's feasible that of all of the young guns threatening to break through, only 1 or 2 might be able to challenge Fed and Rafa consistently.

Yeah Im back. Had a bad bout of the flu and then coupled with that my wisdom teeth flared up and I had to have 2 removed.I still have stitched in my mouth but thank GOD its over and Im on the mend.But thats why I wasnt here for so long.

It is really great to see Federer get over his slump and in fighting fashion no less.I hope this spurs a fire for him to put himself in that position again to hold all 4 slams.Third time might be lucky for Federer.

Im an ardent fan bud,I watch everything from facial expressions to ball bouncing the works.Did you see how he hit a brilliant off forehand winner return in the last game.I thought that was a page out of Steffis book!

My club league starts this weekend and I cant wait.Gonna be great!

I agree with most here. I think Fed will definitely win Wimbledon next year but considering this year's final, I really think Nadal will beat him at some stage. He's playing better and better on grass, which is always good to see.

Another year or so and I think Nadal will be lifting that trophy.