Fed is still 85 points behind Nadal in the ATP race this year. If he and Nadal mirror their USO performances, then he should be ahead by the end of the USO.

But there's a lot of tennis still to be played this year, and Nadal has proved before that he can be dangerous on hard courts.

By all rights, this should be Fed's part of the year now, and hopefully he will have a good run like last year, and retain his crown as the world #1. However, I also think Nadal has a great chance to do better on the hardcourts this season, although he's played an awful lot of tennis already.

Barring injury, I reckon we should be in for another year with Roger as the year-end #1. But could it end up being a photo finish at the TMC? Can you see Roger faltering at the USO, and Rafa picking up the mantle from there? Or can Djokovic --- or even Murray --- mix things up for the top two?

At the moment, only one thing seems clear --- we're in for a hell of a second half of the year! :yahoo:

Thanks for that, MJT. I was just wondering where the YTD points stood after that match. I was pretty sure Nadal would still be in the lead. That's pretty incredible, really, to have a guy who's won two of the three slams so far and trailing in the points race.

I hope Nadal continues to do well, and it ends up a real battle for the top spot at the end of the year. Seemed like he was pretty much spent after Wimbledon last year, but somehow, I think it will be different this time. I'd love to see it go into the Masters Cup with either having a chance to win the honour of year-end No. 1. B)

I just can't see this happening even if Rafa makes the US final and some of the remaining masters series.
You would have to assume that he will meet Roger again on most of these occasions.
Anyone know the permutations even if he were to beat Roger,can he haul back the rolling ranking which decides the year end rankings.
It must be still 2500 points approx.
He surely needs some early exits for this to be a possibility.So even if Roger makes the major finals between now and Shanghai,maybe he will hang on to it despite how rafa performs.

He needs to beat Roger at every tournament,and not only that,but rely on poor form and hope Roger slips up and takes a big cut out of his lead.

Not quite sure what you mean. Nadal is ahead in the ATP race (points so far this year). If he makes more points than Fed in the rest of the year, he will be number 1.

Of course, it could be complicated a little bit by the fact that Fed has played only one non-TMS tournament outside of the slams. However, unless he plans to play even more in the second half of the season, the most likely outcome is that he will actually be one tournament short for the rankings.

However, I still find it tough to imagine Rafa nicking the #1 ranking this year, given that his performance in the second half is traditionally quite a bit weaker, and Roger's tends to be very good. But at the moment, there isn't much in it --- all it takes is Roger missing the USO (let's hope *that* doesn't happen) or getting kicked out early, and Rafa could end up being the favorite for the #1 spot.

Sorry mate,I'm a little bit confused by the rankings system.I know the general state of it,and I'm unaware of the finer details.

Forgive my lack of knowledge,but is there a possibilty at the end of the season where the race is won by rafa,but the entry ranking he finishes no2?
Would Federer with his still massive lead,be able to just hang on to the entry ranking,but lose the race ranking?

They should mirror each other after the year is out,is that so?

Im also a bit baffled at that stupid race and entry system. Doesnt the entry system determine the ranking? I mean if Federer has that 2000+ point lead in the entry system how the hell can Nadal if he wins the race be number 1?

Nadal playing in Stuttgart should get him 250 points closer to Federer in the entry ranking and get further ahead in the race. He seems dedicated to catch up when the other top players take a rest at the mid season. Won't he be too tired when the masters and the USO will succeed each other?

Found out on TW forum that the confusion comes from one is a race for points and the entry race is about defending your points.

Basically Roger has lots of points to defend in the Hardcourt swing.Rafa didn't win a tournament for 8 months last year,and only has a quarter at the USO to defend.

I think also Rafa has played 13 of his mandatory 18 events and Roger only 9 so the advantage is still with Roger,but he will still need to out perform Rafa to hang on.

So if Rafa wins the race then those 2000 points will go as well.

Do you know I think I finally understand it all. roflmao

I'm sure the No1 ranking is an ego thing, but i reckon Roger would be wise not too chase it too hard. When people compare tennis greats, weeks at no1 is far from being the biggest issue i actually wouldn't have a clue who were the all time top five in terms of weeks at the top.
It's more important for Fed to save himself for the slams and masters titles.
It's easy to forget how players can burn out and find themselves sidelined because of injury because they've overplayed.

I still dont get how that race has anything to do with the number 1 the ranking.The entry system is still by far the best calculation!

As always,in total agreement! ;)

This knee problem of Rafa's might well be a storm in a teacup. If it's wear and tear then it could be a concern. He's due for a week or two off after Stuttgart isn't he? Well, maybe he does need to rest...


Nadal goes through despite injury

Rafael Nadal shrugged off a knee injury to beat Philipp Kohlschreiber 6-3 6-3 and book a place in the last eight of the Mercedes Cup in Stuttgart.

The Spanish world number two suffered a similar problem to the one he picked up at Wimbledon early in his match against the home favourite.

"It was the same as in the final, I had a piercing pain and began to doubt if I could play on," said Nadal.

Third seed Tomas Berdych lost 6-0 6-3 to Feliciano Lopez.

Nadal will now face Argentine eighth seed Juan Monaco, who defeated Austria's Stefan Koubek 6-2 3-6 6-3, while sixth seed Juan Carlos Ferrero overcame Argentina's Diego Hartfield 6-4 1-6 6-3.

"I felt this stab of pain and I held myself back at first on the court and then it got better," Nadal added.

"I believe I can keep going. Maybe it's not 100%, but it's pretty good."

...and then comes the hard court season.......

The race and the rankings coincide at the end of the year

the race seems a contrivance to create interest in rankings, but surely what counts is the no1 ranking based on the previous 12 months performance.

One of the main points of the race is to help keep upto track with who is on course for the end of year Masters Cup....