What do you all reckon folks...I've also mentioned this on BBC's 606 boards, to stir things up a bit, and put the pundits in their place - they don't appear to have looked at Nadal's draw this year, and are all assuming Nadal will get to the final again!

I reckon he'll have tough matches against Youzhny and Berdych - especially Berdych - but survive them, only to go out to Djoko in the semis...... :unsure:

I also think Djoko will get him if the others dont .

you make it sound awfully sinister al :unsure:

Another point though...plenty of us are assuming Djokovic is a certainty for the semi-final...he has to negotiate a tricky 3rd round match against Kiefer, and has Hewitt/Nalbandian/Baghdatis potentially in wait. Not impossible, but very tricky nevertheless...Hewitt and Nalbandian are very canny players when facing the youngsters too...

I like Nadal really :whistle: :P
Just dont want him to meet Fed in the final again . :shrug:

I voted Soderling. I don't think he has the nerves to win but he certainly has the game on grass.

Will see.

He really had chance in the first set but his nerve failed him .
Nadals looking in ominous form I must say ... :huh:

again with the sinister-sounding Al!!!!! :P

What, you dont think Im sitting here sticking needles into a wax effigy of Nadal ? ;)

no, i think you're plotting with Djoko/Soderling/Youzhny to remove Nadal from the competition in some horribly sinister way :P

Well lets hope nothing sinister happens to him (other than a good beating on the tennis court) other wise we'll all be in trouble :P

:blink: :blink: :blink:

As in 6-0 6-1 6-0 by Djokovic :D

oh, you've changed it now - trying to make me look like i'm insane..... :angry:

i think i hijacked Mr I's thread - sorry Mr I :hug:

roflmao

nadal will try to spoil things by getting to the final, but federer will take care of him :clap:

Well I vote Berdy in the quarter: I really believe the man has the weapons to do the job and, most of all, he does not fear at all Rafa (and even they do not like each other a lot and this could help in the key points as well..And as we know: Grass Tennis is often like that: You have a chance you need to take it because he is very difficult to have a second one)..said that: Rafa is such a fighter and great player (he definitely have the best court coverage and speed at the moment out there, even slightly better than the FED one, IMO) that he can definitely reach the final: We will see...But in any case: his major thread is definitely Berdy..If he pass this guy..I do not see someone other able to eliminate him (a part FED B) in the final of course ;) )

Well frankly...I think a few players could take out Nadal on grass purely on shot making abilities. Soderling with nerves could do just that but his baseline shots are really unconsistent, especially when it gets tensed. I expect a real tough game for Nadal if he plays Youshny. I actually think that on grass Youshny has better chances than Berdych because the former has a more versatile game.

im quite confident Nadal will reach the final :) i dont hold much prayer of him beating Fed though, so im hoping Fed loses before he gets to the final :pray:

I said it before Queens and i'm saying it now; Fed will stop Nadal.
Nadal has to face some players who basically own Rafa on HC, the thing 'bout those players is they are just like Nadal no grass court specialists either.
Players like Delic or obviously Mahut could have done it in an early round but from now on Rafa will have to face sort of "transitional threats".
Soderling is indeed way too shaky at the big points, moreover he's relying too much on his serve.
Youzhny has everything what it takes to play a great grass game but somehow he never feels comfortable on grass.
Berdych is an upgraded version of Soderling, so this should be an interesting match up. But i think Berdy will be in trouble if Rafa gets a lot of serves back and is as deadly with the dropshot like he is today.
Djoko (or Hewitt) are the ones who are theoretically better grass players and should imo beat Nadal, but as long as Rafa will manage it to make a streetfight out of it -which usually he will- i'm still not sure one of them will beat him.
Fed is -Nadal fear or not- just too good on grass. It may have looked not that spectacular against Safin but to me it was another masterclass. So clever!

With a thread title like that, that would certainly stir things up!!

How about an alternative title: 'How do you think that Nadal will do at Wimbledon?'. :shrug:

Answer?

Well, he ought to make the final, but if he faces Federer in that final then he will do well to win more than one set.

However, I think that he has a tougher route to the final.

His biggest threats (pre-final) in ascending order: Berdych, Djokovic, Hewitt.

I have to say it's funny to see Nalbandian's name up there alongside Hewitt and Djokovic intead of Baghdatis, considering today's result. :rolleyes: I'm actually slightly favouring Baghdatis to come through that quarter now - he proved last year he can beat Hewitt on grass and Djokovic hasn't been convincing all week and might be vulnerable to the shotmaking Cypriot, who reached the final in Halle and seems to have picked up where he left off. As for Davydenko, whom he will almost certainly face next, he's obviously only half the player on grass than he is on every other surface, where he is so tough.

As for Nadal, if anyone will send him packing before the final it will be Berdych. I always thought Youzhny was a bit overrated as a 'nemesis' trailing their H2H 3-4 - he is clearly a tough customer for the Spaniard on hard court but though he may be tested, I think Nadal will get past. Berdych, unlike the Russian, is a proven factor on grass, and will be able to get to the quarters without fatigue - he is one of only two men to complete his match today, and Bjorkman will hardly tax him. Nadal has also never beaten him anywhere outside of clay, with a 2-3 H2H, so clearly the big Czech has the game to consistently defeat him; but I (very slightly!) favour Nadal to go through because he just has the big match experience and strength of will, whereas the notoriously inconsistent Berdych would be contesting his first Slam QF.

Nobody who emerges from the other quarter to reach the semis can beat Nadal, I think; I used to think it would be Djokovic's match to lose, but I'm less sold on him seeing how Delic and now Kiefer have tested him. He also doesn't seem fully comfortable on the surface just yet, whereas Nadal has more than come to terms with it. And as noted above it may not even be the Serb but instead Baghdatis repeating as semifinalist - he may trouble Nadal more this time round but not to where he would win it.

One thing, unfortunately, is almost without question - not even Nadal will beat Federer in the final. His only chance is in having the mental edge against the No 1, but if that were ever going to come into play it would have done last year, coming off four straight wins that year across two surfaces against Federer, who still rose to the occasion to take it convincingly despite dropping a set. Plus fatigue will be a factor, namely with Federer into the quarters without lifting a racket (where he will face non-world beaters Ferrero or Tipsarevic) and then dismissing his bunny Roddick as usual, whereas Nadal will have a series of tough matches played on consecutive days to even get that far.

Well I'm backing Baghi and Hewitt to come through in that lot. I don't think Djoko will beat Nadal if it's him. And I also rule out Nalbandian. So if I am right, Baghi - not sure, he lost to Nadal last year here. Could go either way. If it's Hewitt though, I think he has every chance of knocking Nadal out. If he's back to his best on grass that is. Berdych though will surely give Nadal a clsoe match, if not knock him out?

Ooh, I'd totally forgotten about Baghi. Could push Nadal, and from SB and Manzi's comments it looks as if he's worth backing. I'm not up to speed with today's results, as yet!

Maybe revise order of threats to: Berdych, Baghi, Djoko, Hewitt.

Berdych will definitely be a test though. He beat Rafa in Madrid last year, didn't he? He would seriously fancy his chances against Rafa.

Hey, i just chacked, Nalby;s out! :yahoo:

Djoko didnt look too convincing today did he? :unsure:
Its an interesting point that someone made above, that the mentality on grass is different not just the style of play . On clay , Nadal is confident to win the war of attrition , on grass one or two points can change the whole match. I couldnt believe it when I saw the score against Soderling was 2 sets all , after Nadal thought he had won. If Soderling was anyway mentally tough and more consistent /better at the net he'd have won that match already.
This year Nadals got his work cut out for him to reach the final , and though if he does , Ill still be a nervous wreck until Roger wins ...as he will of course. :D

:cheers: :yahoo:

roflmao roflmao roflmao

Thank God, I can't think of much worse than watchign him in the quarters! :D

Yeah, I did not see the Soderling result coming though. I thought 3-0 to Nadal.

:cheers: Add my name to the happy list concerning this one: Fat Dave does not deserve any better after refusing to develop his (IMO) huge potential and instead eating too much during the off season ...Well done Bagdy...Happy for you.. :clap: :clap: :yahoo: ...At least another young gun who is taking seriously his job (like Djoko BTW :ok: ) :rolleyes:

I thought when I saw the way the bottom quarter was coming together that things would be tough for Nadal. Soderling was always going to be dangerous --- I'm not sure he'll be able to pull this final set out, but Youzhny will be a tough ask after that.

I would love to see Nadal go out to Bjorkman. :D

Seems unlikely though. I think both Youzhny and Berdych would have a good chance against Nadal. I'm less convinced about Djokovic --- he can cause Rafa problems, but I'm not sure his game matches up as well against Rafa as either of them. That's if he makes the semis at all --- which I would say is far from a certainty.

Agree big al. Soderling lost his first 2 sets quite stupidly and almost lost the 3rd being 5/2 or 5/3 up. Mentally he is worse than any of my compatriot. he used Nadal gamesmanship to upset him at the beginning of the 5th but the trick worked against him (he lost his serve). That shows how bad he is mentally. But despite having a very risky game from the baselline, he held his own against Nadal.

I am not sure why some think Youshny is no good on grass. The first time I saw him play was in Wimbledon, he was only and reached the 4th round at only 19 or 20. He lost against the finalist Rafter in the tight four set. The following year he reached the 4th round against just to lose to the winner Hewitt. and reached the 4rth round on 2 other occasions.

I am pretty confident he can beat Nadal on grass. We won't have to wait for Berdych or Federer.

...And no, I don't think Baghdatis has the weapons to hurt Nadal. He has an appauling record against him and I don't see this changing even on grass.

Yeah Baggy was disappointing against Nadal last year. Did he even win a set? I dont think so.
But after watchin Soderling miss so many chances today, and still ended up in a fifth set , Im convinced Nadal's going out before the final. He's good on grass but is he better than top 5 there ? We'll have to wait and see though . I could be wrong :unsure:
Im also disappointed with his timewasting tactics. A player of his status doesnt need to resort to that , on every important point , and quite a few others as well. :wacko:

To be fair to Rafa, he's going to have to beat a whole host of nemeses in consecutive days to get to the final - I don't see it happening. I don't know which player will take him out, but the chances are one out of Youzhny, Berdych and Djokovic will. Obviously everyone will jump on him and say last year was a fluke, but with the rain and bad scheduling, it's a huge ask for him to make the final now.

Then again, I don't think Youzhny's better on grass than Rafa, and the only way he'll lose that is if the Russian plays a blinder.

Berdych is pretty poor when it comes to Slams, and doesn't seem to know how to break serve - look how many sets he's won in tie-breaks against fairly mediocre opposition.

And if he does get to the semi-final, I think he'll be sufficiently pumped up to take out whoever he plays there. Djokovic hasn't shown us anything that implies he's a formidable grass courter - he may have taken Ancic to 5 last year, but lost to Clement at Queens this year. :wacko:

It'll be interesting to see how he does, although it's a real shame that external factors have made this a lot less interesting than it could have been.

The thing is before struggling to Youzhny, Berdych or Djoko, Nadal already finds it difficult against Soderling. And it was not vintage soderling either today. He played relatively poor in the first 2 sets. With a bit more nerves, not much, Sod could have won in 4 and that is before Nadal could claim to be tired.

Having said that Nadal plays better and better on grass but I simply do not think he has enough natural skills - besides his movement - to win the title on day. His really hard working game doesn't pay off on grass.

To be fair to him at least Nadal is showing that he does have some natural skills. He's not just a tennis bulldozer . He can play some decent touch shots as well.

I can't see Berdych losing to him ;)

They all have "natural skills" big Al but his strength comes essentially from being able to pull powerful shots from anywhere in the court due to his amazing abdominal, legs and arm muscles. He does not have to be perfectly placed to generate power. This is such an advantage to the others.

I agree he comes with some nice drop shots at times but again they are helped by a very powerful arm which can easily control the ball. McEnroe's drop shots were a bit more elegantly disguised and executed.

Again, don't get me wrong, he really impressed me at last year's final and I find some of his shots mind blowing. But if we think about it, it is his athletism which is behind all that.