Excuse the title take-off on the Cold War classic novel and later film. B)

Hantuchova staged her return this week to the Top 10 after a four-year absence. It seemed a possibility after her title run in Indian Wells earlier in the year (just as Serena is guaranteed an AO title in odd years, Hantuchova will win IW every five it seems :P ), and it was the quarterfinal result in Birmingham that ultimately edged her to the No 10 spot. Good on her.

It did lead me to notice, however, that a paltry 68 points (!) separate No 9 Hingis from No 14 Vaidisova. At times inconsistent and injury-plagued Russians Petrova and Dementieva were Top 10 (at times even Top 5) fixtures for most of last year coming into this year, but have to settle for remaining on its fringe for now. Hingis seemed a solid bet ever since her own convincing return to the world elite after five years gone, but through no fault of her own hasn't been able to defend some big points owing to injury and now stands on the precipice. Vaidisova has remained a credible Top 10 presence ever since her RG breakthrough last year, but despite managing to follow it up just a stage short with a QF placing this year, she has also fallen out of it largely due to an injury layoff that saw her miss nearly the entirety of the clay season. Up-and-coming Russians Safina and Chakvetadze flirted with the Top 10 for a while, landing in and out of the No 9 and 10 spots intermittently, but it appears the latter has done better in carving out her own longer-lasting place in it after reaching the quarters of both Slams this year, with a relatively comfortable buffer of about 200 points between the rest of the pack and her perch at No 8. Serena is in an even better position, sitting at No 7 with only ten events played thanks to the AO and Miami titles and some QF/SF runs and can only go upwards for now.

So the point of this post, apart from highlighting this remarkable bottleneck caused by rising stars and slumping veterans (as well as the odd return to form like Hantuchova's), is to see what the rest of you think should be the shape of this Top 10 post-transition. Which ladies merit their spot? Which owe theirs to a bit of a rankings fluke at moment and which will be there for the long(er) run? Who isn't there but should be?

Venus will probably be a popular candidate, but she has yet to notch a Top 10 win since Wimbledon 2005, and even winning the title again this year would land her several placings short of it. So she has some ways to go just yet. Peer and Li seemed to be threatening for a time, but the clay seems to have knocked them off their game. Schnyder was a Top 10 constant and was competitive for a berth in Madrid last year, but despite doing very well for herself in the clay season, the Swiss veteran seems more likely to just tread water rankings-wise if not drop entirely. Vaidisova should probably stage her own return before very long, and having just turned 18 she still has a bright future ahead of her - also as noted it's just a handful of points that have seen her out of it for now. Will Zvonareva have her own Hantuchova-like return to the Top 10 after years out of it? She's been doing well again since last summer, with a couple of titles (including a pair in Slam doubles) and finals reached, but injury saw her miss RG and now Wimbledon as well, which means her revival of form has been prematurely cut short; just this past week she was unable to defend her Birmingham title.

Yes it's very interesting at the moment, it's also interesting to wonder what will happen with the top four, and even in time as high as the number one. Statistically Jankovic and Serena both stand a good chance to attain it at some point...Sharapova not so much as she has so much to defend coming up.

I think Venus' best shot of getting back where she belongs is having a favourable draw at Wimbledon allowing her to gain points, and then going on a real spree in the US summer hardcourt season, like she did in 2000 and 2002, I think if she finds herself at Wimbledon she can do this. Then a favourable showing at the open, not forgetting her excellent record there would surely see her within striking distance of the top ten, depending on whether she wanted to play the indoors season or not.

The rankings above are updated now btw and it's interesting that, until Eastbourne next week I would presume, Serena is still ahead of Henin in the race.

I assume you mean Jelena is still ahead of Justine rather than Serena? This is how the race stands at the moment. The current top 6 look like they'll all qualify for the YEC.

JANKOVIC, JELENA 2750
HENIN, JUSTINE 2520
IVANOVIC, ANA 1946
KUZNETSOVA, SVETLANA 1911
WILLIAMS, SERENA 1891
SHARAPOVA, MARIA 1645
CHAKVETADZE, ANNA 1265
HANTUCHOVA, DANIELA 1258
SAFINA, DINARA 1211
VAIDISOVA, NICOLE 1101
HINGIS, MARTINA 1096
MAURESMO, AMELIE 1076
PEER, SHAHAR 1062
PETROVA, NADIA 1023
LI, NA 937
GOLOVIN, TATIANA 865
SCHNYDER, PATTY 839
BAMMER, SYBILLE 810
DEMENTIEVA, ELENA 806
SAFAROVA, LUCIE 790

Sorry yes, obviously Serena was on my mind ;)

Venus has had top 10 wins since Wimby 2005 Manzikert ;)

2005- defeated Patty in cincinatti
Defeated Serena at the Us Open

2006- defeated Patty in rome
defeated Patty in Paris

But yes, hasnt had major top 10 wins since wimby 05 :)

You're right, of course - I thought belatedly to do some fact-checking after posting that oft-cited factoid.

The wins against her bunny Schnyder in Rome and RG last year came when the Swiss was ranked No 9 so do rate as Top 10 wins as you say, although the one in Stanford (not Cincinnati) the year prior was whilst she was ranked 12 so does not. And that curious match against sister Serena at the USO 2005 (only the second time they'd ever met before the quarterfinals at an event, the first coming seven years previously!) which she won in straights was a win against the No 8.

The larger point probably still remains, although I did sell Venus short there.

Speaking of Top 10 wins, I left out Safarova, who had that golden week at the Paris indoors event (and was one set away from a fourth consecutive straight sets Top 10 victory against Petrova in the final), and of course has owned Mauresmo this year. Was that simply a hot streak or a genuine harbinger of a future Top 10 player in the short term? At just 20 years of age surely her best is still ahead of her, but she has yet to crack the Top 20 although could do so before long. I confess I can't quite warm up to her (for some reason she evokes Linda Blair in The Exorcist for me) but from what I've seen she's got a solid, penetrating game.

It does seem to be an interesting period, certainly!

Leaving any favourite choices aside, I would think that Hantuchova could be in for a little period back in the higher echelons of the game. She seems to have really applied a degree of steel to her game, which looks as if she has a good chance of going deep into most tournaments now, which usually guarantees a top 10 placing. The fact that she has had two recent narrow defeats in 3 hour matches indicates that she now has the stomach for a battle more than ever. She always had the grounstrokes, but seemed to lack the stamina to really dig in and fight. She's very bright, a good matchplayer, but does seem to be her own worst critic at times, can become quite dispirited at times. It's very heartening to see a good all-round player back into the top 10.

I think that with Vera Zvonareva, it's easy to forget that she is still only 22, and was of course in the top 10 back in 2004 (I think). She also has the all-round game to compete although doesn't quite have the weapons to quite hurt the top players. However, she has definitely managed to curtail her temperament in a good way.

Interesting that both of the above are accomplished doubles players, both with a few slam wins. I had wondered whether they might edge into becoming doubles specialists but am glad that they have held their own on the singles front. I hope that Vera gets back from injury soon, and that she continues her good form.

I'm not sure about Petrova and Dementieva. I think that they are prone to playing bad matches, and it's difficult seeing them putting a string of results together at this point. They could be in danger of drifting down the rarnkings in the same way that Nallbandian has in the men's game.

Martina Hingis? Well, focus is key for her. Of course she could remain in the top 10, as she has every ability to make the last 8 of slams (in the same way that Hantuchova and Zvonareva can) and also has consistency as a good part of her game. If she is focussed then she will remain in the top 10 for another year or two.. but that's a big 'if'..

As for the young guns.. well, I think that they are likely to continue to blow hot and cold for a year or two. Safina seemed to have so much promise, but could be prone to inconsistencies not unlike her brother. Imagine those two playing doubles together! Vaidisova and Peer definitely look dangerous and are likely to be top 10. Whether this happens this year or next year will be interesting to see. However, the hardcout season will suit their games.

Venus? Who knows? Injury and motivation always the key. But even just wins over Patty will not be enough and her aura of course not what it used to be. But of course, never ever write off a Williams!! :lol:

So, yes, interesting mix. Lots of variables there in terms of form and injury. But I'd think that Hantuchova looks the most likely to occupy top 10 for the next year or so. Vera, well, if she regains momentum then probably top 15. Martina 8-12.

So, probably the more established players holding these positions for a while, and then the likes of Peer, Vaidisova when they finally become more consistent (they may have periods of form to get back into the top 10, but then retreat back into 13-15 positions when form dips).

cheers to dani on her top 10 return :clap: :clap: :clap:

and martina, get back to playing already or retire again!!

well Justine will prob keep hold of her no.1 spot for now, but will probably lose it to Mary when she returns to action :)

Most definitely :yep:

at last, someone agrees with me :) that lucky heather must be working at last :lmaao:

Great play on words, fantastic thread title-unlike the book and film which are both grating.

Hmm...lucky heather, I wonder.......

Tell me about it, a load of pretentious twaddle with littel real substance! :rolleyes:

Didn't expect to see this thread resurrected, although it makes for a good comparison to the time when I wrote it.

The closeness in ranking points has diminished somewhat. Petrova has returned to the Top 10 and is relatively comfortable there now, and Serena seems a good bet to defend her R16 points at the USO at the very least if not improve on them, so really only the No 10 spot is up for grabs, with around 300 points separating it from No 8 and 9. In fact this week saw Bartoli sneaking past Hantuchova to make her Top 10 debut on the difference of their New Haven results (quarterfinal versus an opening match loss). But Hantuchova did manage a decent stay in the Top 10, despite falling out not long after her first return, with her second return lasting a month or more.

The USO like any Slam can shake up the rankings a good bit but it will have limited impact I think, being the last of the year. The most likely result will see Venus stage her own return to the Top 10, with no points to defend and a likely R16 result if not better being enough to do the job in all probability. Mauresmo's self-imposed exile will see her drop all her semifinal points (just as well since that was a semifinal to forget) and just about slip out entirely. I think we'll see Mauresmo exchanged with Venus, and the Top 10 spot changing every so often although Bartoli will probably hang onto it, but otherwise the current lineup through to the YEC.