If Federer slips up, who is most likely to win? Nadal wouldn't even have been on this list 12 months ago, but was v impressive on way to last year's final, even if the draw was easy! Hewitt knows his way round a grasscourt, and Roddick is tough to beat on the surface. Nalbandian is underperforming everywhere these days, but still could possibly reach another final at SW19. Ancic is still apparently out with glandular fever, but has a well honed grasscourt game. And Djokovic, may not look a natural grasscourt player, but he does perform well on all surfaces, has a good serve, and moves fairly well for someone so tall.

Gasquet has been following the traditional French path of style over substance recently, but nevertheless has the potential to do well on grass, so I put him in there too...

Henman! :P

Nah, gotta be Nadal... I see another final from them both.

I agree with you Trisco.

Nadal for me as well

I'm surprised at the number of you going for Nadal (I voted for Hewitt). I know he was impressive on grass last year, but he will have to beat at least one out of Hewitt, Roddick and Blake, and possibly two of them at Wimbledon, and I just can't see that happening.

I thought about Hewitt, I couldn't decide between him and Nadal, Roddick I don't know, I really wouldn't be surprised if Nadal beat him :shug: His performance in Surbiton didn't do anything for me either :lol:

I see Nadal playing as well as he did last year.....is he playing queens btw? It will be interesting to see how he does there...

hes playing Queens, and hes in the other half of the draw from Hewitt and Roddick

Djokovic looks a good bet. He is pretty handy on fast courts, and it took a monumental effort from an in-form Ancic to beat him last year, and Nole has improved a lot since then.

I do think that the chances of any of these depends on their draw. Whoever is in Rafa's half of the draw in the above list will have to fancy their chances more. ;)

Nadal, he's mentally stronger than anyone in the draw, and if Fed were to slip up thats going to play a huge factor. Near impossible to break nadal mentally, has such overwhelming self-belief. I feel also technically he's eclipsed some of the more established grass-courters in terms of his serving is so much better than last year, and if he's being aggressive and moving forward to the net, he's a contender never mind a threat....

I went with Djokovic as well. He should also have a Top 4 seeding this time round by dint of his shiny new ranking, which will do well for shielding him from the top players until well into the second week (I seriously hope Roddick isn't given that seeding in his stead, given that the Serb went a round further than the American last year, but I would think Davydenko's seeding should drop instead in any rejigging given his decidedly weak history at the event). His attacking style of tennis is ideal for grass, and he seems to take the role of challenging the Federer/Nadal axis the most seriously of anyone else on tour. As petal pointed out it took Ancic, possibly the third-best player on grass after Federer and Roddick, to topple him in five sets (only to lose to the defending champion himself) and Djokovic was still barely in the Top 40 then without any of the confidence he has now.

I might put Nadal third - he is the only player assured of being opposite Federer's half of the draw and that makes him the natural inheritor of any (still unthinkable) upset of the No 1 before the final. He also has the strength of will and seems to prize this Slam even more than RG (which still surprises me), but isn't in danger of wanting it so much he buckles under the pressure. The fact remains however is that he faced a steep learning curve on the surface last year, and mightn't be able to meet it again this time round.

The big question marks will be former finalists/champions Roddick and Hewitt. Their efforts last year were poor, for all that Federer touted them as his only threats. But Hewitt seems a new player of late and Roddick has made some strides in his game, although this improvement seems to have stalled out this year.

I went for Hewitt. He's been playing very well recently and seems to have got his head back in the game. He had a good clay court season, and if he has a successful Queen's I think he could be a serious challenger. Plus, of course, he's also got the mental strength.....

Yes, but if Fed were playing, Roddick or Hewitt would certainly be in Rafa's half...

...Which will most certainly be the case at Wimby.

Theres certainly no guarantee Roddick and Hewitt will be in the same half at wimbledon, but its possible they could both be in Feds. The only certainty out of those four is Nadal and Fed will be in opposite sides of the draw

I'm not sure why, just have a feeling about hewitt this year (now watch him go out in round 1!)

even though he doesn't deserve it right now...gasquet :rolleyes:

I would have said Roddick, but last year he put up little resistance against Andy Murray, so I'm going with form and skill and that will be Nadal.

After watching Roddick in action today against Alex, I dont think he is a serious challenger to the wimbledon throne. His base line game was awful as he was almost waiting for Alex to make mistakes. I thought ALex played brilliantly and its a shame he lost. The only diference was Roddick's first serve. If comebosy return his serve well and has a solid base line game, roddick shall be in trouble. So I shall go with Djokovich. This young man really impressed me with his all court game and attitude.

definitly Nadal.
4 days ago he played 15 feet behind the baseline, today he played serve&volley, just like that. His forehand is as much of a weapon as it is on clay. Even the lowest slice is an easy target for Rafa.
Who's going to stop him? :shrug: It should be Fed, although Fed will have to play better than he did last year in the final if he'll have to face Nadal.

No Way. Nadal won't pass Youshny, Berdych, Blake, Djoko, even Gasquet (if he decides to play), and others. We do not know how good Nadal is on grass. The only grass specialist he met was Federer and he got bagelled and a breadstick during that match. the fight in between was only due to nerves from fed who had a lot at stake.

no breadstick there. Although he should have served Nadal a breadstick in the fourth but the familiar Nadal fear took control..
The players you're mentioning aren't exactly grass specialist either...
Besides; I just don't think the absence of Rafa's main clay court weapon "high bounce" will make that much of a difference. His game is one-dimensional but like we say in Dutch; "within the limitation, the master hides".
At Queens i see him tank a match but i won't be surprised if he gets to the final at Wimbledon..
But i guess you know by now i hope he doesn't.

Hmmm...I'd be a bit reticent to automatically put Nadal as 2nd favourite for Wimbledon. However, I have been very impressed by his form at Queens, so soon after defending his Roland Garros title.

I have to admit I don't especially enjoy watching him on clay (those winners on the run may be spectacular but I tend to feel sorry for his opponents who take the initiative first only for Nadal to win by getting the ball back followed by a lethal counterpunch).

However, I find Nadal quite enjoyable to watch on grass - he takes the initiative more, and mixes it up and isn't afraid to come to the net.

Performance at Queens this week will be a good indication: if Nadal and Roddick play each other on grass, I would be inclined to proclaim the winner of that match 2nd favourite for Wimbledon (although Lleyton can bounce back after losing to Tsonga).

yes, Mr.I, and that's why i found it even more spectacular when his usually so lethal counterpunch is answered by a even more lethal volley or groundstroke, and with saying that i immediatly have think of my avatar ;) )

Very much agree with this. One difference is that I think players are getting closer to Nadal on clay. Players like Djoko and Federer just showed that pace can really put Nadal in trouble, even on clay. On grass those lower bounces and significantly pacier shots make a difference. It made the difference between winning and losing regarding the top 2 but I am sure others can add to that. Those good shots Nadal runs down and turn into winners are simply too good on grass.

I was very surprised Nadal got to the final last year, but until he met Fed, there was not much to really gauge him.

He plays well on grass and it I was really impressed by him in the final. He gave 130% I felt....yet it was not good enough.

Well, maybe the results of Queen and Halle will make you reconsider you thoughts..
Some of the few players with a reasonable grass run up till now are Baghi and Niemienen; both have been beaten by Nadal last year at Wimbledon :unsure:

But OK, let's wait if Mahut can trouble NAdal, he's a former junior Wimbledon champ if i remember correctly and plays some solid S&V.

I thought we might be rushing back to this thread to reassess after seeing Nadal and Djokovic both crash out in Queen's. :P

They both went deep in Paris so might still be feeling the effects of too much tennis? :shrug: But then I wouldn't read too much into the upsets just yet; there's every chance that in a best-of-five both men would have staged the fightback (even from two sets down, which Nadal had to do against Kendrick last year).

Baghdatis seems to be doing well in Halle, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him showing up in the second week at Wimbledon again. He seems to have recovered some of the form that saw him in back-to-back finals earlier in the year, as well.

I really think that the actual draw itself will have a big bearing on who could be considered second favourite at Wimbledon this year.

Last year's draw was just outrageous to have the likes of Gasquet, Ancic, Djoko, Fed, Tim all in the same quarter.. Can't remember the rest but it was case of all of the best grss court players all in one quarter.

Rafa and Roddick could both be undone by players that they struggle against. Polssibly Hewitt too.. but give them a kind draw and any of them could get to the final..

I'm not worried about Blake, and at present not Roddick either, He's in great danger from an in the zone player more attuned to the grass. Like Mahut today. Last year he went to five with Kendrick, another good grass player IMO, huge serve, good volleys. He's vulnerable in the early rounds. Last year he has a peach of a draw. he'd have died in Fed's half! roflmao

Btw Ancic isn't playing, or I might say him. It is tough to cal and so dependant on the draw really, not just in terms of one really tough opponet who si a seed but a succession of good grass players. At th moment my eye is on or Djoko if they can pull it together and don't meet Fed early on. But Djoko dissappointed today and Baghi is unpredictable but he does rise to the big stage. Could also go out early too. And Hewitt, if he gets back on track, can be the one. I am reading littel into his Artois defeat as it was 3 sets. I think he'd have pulled it back over 5. He's also a match for Nadal on grass. I'm gonna keep eyes on Karlovic and Mahut now too, and can Davydenko go further this year?

Yes last year the draw was scandoulous. It robbed us of both established and up and coming grass talent being seen at its best.

We have the habit to judge players according to latest results. It is in itsef very deceptive. Yes Blake can get "surprising" losses for 3 or 4 tournaments in a row and becomes the laughing stock of all those who always liked to criticise him. People did/would easily put Ljubo, Hewitt, davydenko and even Robredo in the same bag. Then we see Nadal losing everything he enters last summer and last winter and are quick to burry him for the rest of his career.....until he wins IW and everything else on clay. Same happened for Fed and all players for that matter.

I personally do not pay too much attention to what happened last week or the last 4 weeks in most cases. Cause as we can see, there is no real pattern out there. there is potetial players......or lets call them dangerous players. For me players have more or less potential to acheive things and whether they will on a D date is simply impossible to say. I know however they can or could win if in the right frame of mind. in that line of thinking, I feel Nadal has not got what it takes to win Wimbledon ...for now at least. Nor has Roddick or Bagdhatis or many others. i might be wrong, certainly, but i doubt.

Now I think Djoko, possiby Hewitt (if the court pace is right for him) and even Nalbandian are here potential winners (besides Fed). Nadal should not be dismissed entirely either but i would certainly not put him in the top 5. A motivated blake would still get the better of Nadal on grass. Mahut proved me right today but I am sure many others can.

It's true, we judge players according the latest results, but isn't that legitimate? This makes more sense than to judge a player on results he had 2 years ago. Confidence and great form doesn't arrive out of the blue very often , it's a proces. But that does not mean i'm writing players off because of some bad results (something i never do).
Your fellow frenchman did a great job yesterday, he proved Nadal doesn't like to play against S&V players, problem is; how many players play like Mahut? The fact Mahut beat Nadal doesn't increase the chances of players like NAlbandian or Gasquet.

But experience tells us - except in the case of streaks from guys like Fed or Nadal on clay - "recent form of a player" hardly ever translates into something consistant, or predictable for their future matches...not even for the top 5 to 10! yes they are the more consistent, but frankly could we honestly say that Gonzo was in form in the AO and therefore should have a good DC match and a good IW and miami run? we wish! same applies for Ljubo and all others. The great Robredo (quite a consistent player) was eliminated in the 1st round of the only TMS he won the year before...despite being "on form". I could of course hilight the case of Nadal we thought invicible a year ago, then had a poor end to season where most of us had burried him already and then while no one expected it, he came back stronger than ever. Is it to say, he'll have a fantastic Wimby and american summer? Not sure! according to the last year pattern.....no, but can we base anything on the past results? I don't think so.

I personally see Nalbandian's returning skills and fast pace being more dangerous than Nadal on grass for instance. I know that nadal will take every single match more seriously and will probably try to fight harder and as a result might go further in the tournament but should they face each other...then I think we have very open match. This is just an example.

Well, T, it isn't my style to seek for holes in one's argument based on a single example but Gonzo supports in fact my point of view; i wasn't surprised he made it to the AO final, he was probably the second best player of the last few months of last year..
Nevertheless; of all the "non big servers" Nalbandian (or a fit Murray). is one of the worst match ups for Rafa. It's about time they face each other, preferably on grass :pray:

Not sure Gonzo serves your case GP. He had a patch of form indeniably.....but no conclusion could be drawn from that. The patch extended to the AO certainly but stopped there. My point remains that it is not because they reach a final (Gonzo, Bagdhatis, Blake , you name it) that they will be a force to be reckoned with from then on. I would say the top 4 are rather reliable....the rest is simply a lottery.

A Murray-Nadal match at Wimbledon ? Mouthwatering, if they're both fit and in form . :)

Based on grass-court credentials, probably Roddick, but i still think he's not that much of an elite contender compared to other players on grass nowadays. I would put nadal as second fav. Learning all the time on grass, and is mentally stronger than all those on the list. Whilst his game maybe isnt the strongest on grass, his mental prowess gives him such an edge :ok:

good post Dl :ok: tbh i would like either of those 2 to give Fed a good stuffing, although i can only see him getting knocked out in an early round and it being a total shock. Once he gets to the latter stages and plays himself into form, i cant see anyone beating him