Now that Davydenko has kindly dispatched Canas, i reckon the odds are very good Fed getting to the final. With an 8-0 head to head and Davydenko's reputation as a journeyman i can only see Dav taking a set off Fed at best.
Must admit as a Fed devotee i was more than a little concerned about a potential Canas Fed face-off.
Nadal faces Moya and potentially Djokovic-both have beaten Nadal, Moya has beaten him on clay-i'm not betting much against Nadal getting to the final, but he could at least face some stiff opposition-or is my anti-Nadal world view blinding me to the bleedin obvious realities of the situation. :unsure:

Yip.. many people counted their chickens about Canas reaching the semis, without realising that Kolya's game actually matches up well against that of Canas.. :rolleyes:

It won't be plain sailing for Fed in the semis, even though as a Fed fan I'd have taken Kolya as a semi final opponent over Canas and Nalby simply because Fed's game matches up better to Kolya's. however I would have backed Fed to beat the other two anyway :)

however, Kolya is much more match tough than Fed in this tournament (in fact he's more match tough than anyone else in the draw), and will test Fed. He has tested Fed in slams in the past though.. have vague recollection of him testing Fed at the AO, maybe last year?

Interesting that you've completely ignored Andreev.. don't worry, you're not the only one, he's reached the last 8 by stealth! He may well test Djoko.. or maybe he'll run out of steam, who knows?

Nadal v Moyini.. my bet is that the match will have been decided this evening over a grudge match on their playstation.. Moya might get a violation/ disqualification for abuse of the remote control.. or something like that. ;)

Never believed Canas could be a real threat. I really thought Davydenko would be the tougher test. It doesn't matter if Fed beat him 8 times before....a new match is another occasion to change the trend.

Federer will need all his firepower on hiserve and FH. I would ve loved to se a Nadal v Davy semi instead.

I'm expecting a fairly easy straight sets win for the Fedster B)

After Davydonkey pushed bum digging Nadal to the max In Rome I have new found respect for him.I seem to think that he will be a real test for the Fedster and I hope he does give him something to think about coz if he is to face Nadal in the final then he will at least have had some kind of feel for all his tennis repitoire and will have a better idea of what he needs to do to beat Nadal.Lets face it,Hamburg is over and this is where it matters!

Yeah I see this being a good test for Federer. It's one I think he will overcome, but seeing how he went walkabout during the 2nd set against Robredo yesterday Davydenko will be looking to see if he can exploit any walkabout's when they meet.

My tip is Feds to win in 3 tight sets.

Federer in 4 Im going to say!

Well I guess we at least agree on the result....

You just couldn't go that one extra step and agree with me that it will be 3 sets....!!! :D

I bet your hand hovered over the 3 button on your PC and then when you realised you might just be agreeing with me an involuntary spasm controlled by the Anti-Gav control centre in your brain made you type 4 instead!!!! ;) :P :D

roflmao But my friend all logic points to a 4 set win if Federer is playing well and if Davy is playing well.If Federer is in sublime form then your 3 set win may prove true.I dont think he would want to repeat what happened last year in his semi with Dunking Donut!

Yeah I agree to an extent. That's why I think it will be three tight sets rather than easy ones. There is a chance that Davydonkey will take a set from him for sure... I just see that being perhaps one step too far...

something like 7-5 6-4 6-4 to Federer.

I expect Fed to win, like everyone else, but would add two caveats:

* There seem to be two Feds at the moment, Monaco/Rome Man, and Hamburg Man - if Monaco/Rome Man (who is a pp server and hits his groundstrokes short) turns up like he did yesterday for more than one set I think Fed is in deepish do-do's

* Fed has a relatively weak record in 5-setters, he has won 9 and lost 10, so he had better finish Davydenko off in 4, which I think is what he will do.

I just dont think Donkey will be a pushover in 3 tight sets he almost will win a set.This surface favours him coz Federer wont be able to inject as much pace to rob Donkey of time thats why i say 4.But time will tell!

What is interesting is that Volandri and Canas, both players who have recorded victories against Fed this year, were each stopped just one round short of facing Roger. Now, if this trend continues ... :P :P :rolleyes:

I'm going for a:
6-4, 5-7, 7-5, 6-3 win for Federer.

Davydenko has been quietly impressive this clay court season, and I too have a new found respect for him, after berating him a lot.
His dogged determination and good groundstrokes will mean it's no cake walk for Fed, but I've every confidence that we'll have Hamburg Federer

:clap:

:o You're right! Could it be Djoko over Nadal???

If that were to happen (which I doubt, but you never know) I wonder if Fed won RG, would he be as contented with the win than had it been over Nadal?

I doubt it, as I think he would get just that little extra satisfaction out of beating Nadal in the final. But I don't it would dampen his mood much. :D

Btw, as for the original question . . . I don't consider Davydenko a free ride to the final for Fed. He's been quite good on clay and quite good at RG. In fact, he's probably third best at the French the last couple years, behind Fed and Nadal, having made the SF in 05, QF last year and now SF (or better) this year. I think Fed has the will and the skill to beat him, though.

I'm also not convinced that it is likely to happen ... but if it did, I don't think he would lose too much sleep over it, given his victory in Hamburg.

We should not get ahead of ourselves though ... it might be Davydenko v Djokovic in the final. :D

federer is going to rip davydenko to shreds 3 3&3 :P

i agree, Fed will beat denko in three sets.
Regarding Canas, Fed certainly has the weapons to beat Canas, but it's a head thing-being beaten by the guy in consecutive tournaments ild be worried by the thought of Canas facing Fed in the Semis. I reckon Fed would still have won, but it would have been un-nerving, of the two i think denko is a better player, but Fed knows how to handle him.

Of Course! Nadal is happy to meet Djoko and not Davydenko.

He knows Donkey would have pushed him if not taken the match as its a best of 5.He must be happy to face Novak!

Hmm I wonder what Davydenko is gonna try against the Fedster this time. His usual game obviously wont work so I hope he mixes it up and at least makes it a contest.

The thing is ACE,the fact that its clay makes it harder for Federer to pummel him off the court.Its gonna be a fight Donkey has really had a great claycourt season.

physically Davy can't compete with Fed for 4/5 sets, and i can't see Roger lose in 3. It's very likely it will be another Fed-Nad final.

BTW; it starts to look like the weather conditions won't be any different compared with last years final. :(

Actually GP, looking at teh Wether channel forecast, the weather looks like it's going to be quite different, with even storms on Sunday. And even teh semi shoudl be under the rain which shoudl really advantage Djoko.

http://weather.yahoo.com/forecast/FRXX0076_f.html

Come on heavy weather!

hmm, which source is right?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.shtml?world=0040

I would say the weather channel is pretty good. I remember once I was in spain on vacation and was accessing both site and the BBC one was wrong very often while the WC was very accurate. The BBC is quiet good for the UK but outside it looks like they are simply guessing.

Anyway, this will be a good test to see which one is right.

i think we should ask Kate Bush and Donald Sutherland for help .. ;)

Ah.. cloudbusting!! Terrific Song, great video :ok:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IRHA9W-zExQ

:D
I'm not surprised at all the walking music guide of this board spotted this reference
:ok:

melancholic song isn't it?

Yes, I admit I didn't get it at first, GP, though I knew the song. But last time I listened to it....(years ago), my English did not allow me to grasp the theme, let alone its meaning. :(

Nice song for sure!

Thanks GP! :D

I have just been reading up on the lyrics to the song. This song was written by Kate Bush after she read "A Book of Dreams" by Peter Reich. Peter was the son of Wilhelm Reich, a psychoanalyst who also used a machine called a cloudbuster to make rain. In 1954 the FDA ordered that Wilhelm Reich's books be banned and destroyed. Wilhelm died in prison after being arrested for contempt of court. I think that in the video, Donald Sutherland has a copy of the book in his pocket?

More about the song here:

http://www.songmeanings.net/lyric.php?lid=54746

So yes, the words and the video I guess do have a melancholic feel to them! However, I find both the way that she sings the song and the strings very uplifting. I always love that combination of a melodic poppy sound with lyrics that have a melancholic undercurrent (without dampening the passion for the song by being overanalytical about it :unsure: :lol: )

Anyway, going slightly off-topic.. hope that Donald and Kate can indeed help re: weather conditions.. ! ;)

Interesting about the weather --- at the moment, it certainly doesn't seem to look all that nice, with the humidity way up.

The problem is that weather is a system which tends to exhibit "sensitive dependence on initial conditions", and hence is basically impossible to predict over a longer period of time. So whether the conditions on Sunday are to Fed's liking might depend on the flap of a butterfly's wings in Brazil ...

More to the point, both weather reports seem to think that the *temperature* will be fairly high (unlike Hamburg). How would Fed fare in warm but humid conditions?

Weather temperatures are not that important because they are always measured in the shade. so if it is overcast or sunny, they don't vary much and don't tell the story. L'et's say, it says 24 degrees. There is then a huge diference if it overcast as the temperature on the court is likely to be around that but If it is in bright sun out there, the 24 degrees become 40 degree plus on the court and that is what really makes the difference on the bounce.

The devil is in the detail....as some would say!

Going back to W Reich, I heard about him because I read quite a few books on psychology and knew about him through CG Jung's books (my other favourite Swiss). I had no clue Reich was referred to in that video. Strange life he had, his mother committed suicide because at the age of 12 he told his father she was cheating with the preceptor, his father died 3 years later from TB...not a good start! :(