Hi all,

Then Monte Carlo draw will be available, it seems, only Saturday at noon (local time) so we'll probably know by mid afternoon :pray: ...

Nevertheless, I cannot wait it is time to try to forecast something about the final outcome. Please note that almost all big bosses will be there, a part:

3 Roddick, Andy USA 3 OUT
6 Blake, James USA 6 OUT
22 Fish, Mardy USA 22 OUT
44 Ginepri, Robby USA 43 OUT

and it seems as well that Canas will not be there ( I checked in a couple of web sites and it seems this is the case)...

Given all this what are the % of victory for the Big boys, i.e. FED & Nadal. From my side I see a:

Nadal :yikes: 50% / FED :pray: 40% / REST, i.e. Djoko/Nalbi/(Gonzo-Gasquet)...10% :whistle:

Opinions..Ideas ..Comments :ok: :rolleyes:

Hi TV and happy birthday to you :party:
First things first, we all knew it was on the cards but I still have to laugh at the American players pulling out of Monte-Carlo yet again. You can understand where they are coming from though. Until the end of Wimbledon, they have to spend months away from home so I suppose they'd want to delay coming to Europe until the start of the Rome tournament. It is strange that every year they all seem to mysteriously be injured once Monte-Carlo comes around though.
I am a big fan of Monte-Carlo. For me is the best out of the 3 claycourt masters series. It provides the best preparation for the French Open, as unlike Rome and Hamburg, the speed of the courts and conditions are pretty similar to those at Roland Garros. In recent years, the winner of Monte-Carlo has usually gone on to win the French Open, and if not they have at least reached the final.
It is important to note the that the draw size has been reduced from 64 to 56 so Federer, Nadal and the other top seeds will have to play a maximum of 5 matches rather than 6.
Given that Nadal is the double defending champion here and is on a 62 match winning streak, I would have to make him the favourite. He played well at Indian Wells and Miami in general and he seems to come back into form at the right time. Federer is obviously the 2nd favourite. Unlike the last two seasons, he'll have had a long period of rest coming into Monte-Carlo, which could help him. He'll come out all guns blazing hoping to make amends after his recent defeats, and I'm confident he'll reach the final again. I'm going to be boring and predict a Nadal V Federer final. The final will be best of 3 sets this year so that would give Federer a better chance of beat Nadal who is more formidable over best of 5 set matches. However I would expect Nadal to beat Federer in 3 sets. I do think that Federer will beat Nadal on clay this year but that he'll have to wait until Rome to do it. The key question is surrounding Federer's backhand. Will this shot be able to handle the high bounce from Nadal's vicious crosscourt forehand with heavy topspin? I think as Tenez has said many times, the cooler the conditions are, the more chance that Federer has.
One play who I think could do well here is Juan Ignacio Chela. He had a pretty successful South American claycourt reason, culminating with a title at Acapulco. He also had good month at Indian Wells and Miami, reaching the quarter-finals at both events. I think he will do well next week.
Gasquet stood too far behind the baseline for my liking at Indian Wells and Miami. However I think he'll end his slump and have a good run at Monte-Carlo (so long as he doesn't have to face Nadal or Federer too early) His weak serve will be less of a problem on this surface, and he has the shots at his disposal to trouble anyone.
I'm not sure about how Djokovic will do. He does have a good claycourt pedigree though, reaching the quarters at the French last year. Hopefully his respiratory problems won't hinder his ability to cope with the long, gruelling rallies on this surface. He is bang in form right now and I hope he can continue that. Murray has a strong defence and his fitness is much better than it was last year. He is surely going to improve drastically on his poor claycourt season from least year.
Obviously we'll have a better idea how this tournament will pan out once the draw is made.

Federer this year has had a mental breakthrough against Nadal after winning their last two matches . That could help him on clay this year compared to last , although the technical aspects of their matchup are obviously interlinked with the mental. But he definitely choked in Rome and Paris.

I reckon Nadal will win but Federer has the new advantages of best of 3 sets final and 5 matches rather than 6. Federer has incredible stamina don't get me wrong but Nadal thrives on physical exhibitions.

I think Fed choked in MC (though I did not see the match) and his first FO 2005 encounter with nadal. There he played badly at times without really Nadal doing much work.

I did not see him choke in Rome though. Like he did not choke against Canas in Miami. It was more a case of rushing or maybe being over-confident at crucial moments (thinking it was done and dusted when there was still a point or 2 to play).

I don't think he choked in FO06 either, I think it is more a combination of being over confident again and Nadal destroying little by little his confidence on the BH with vertical bounces. If he had played Nadal consistently for 2 or 3 days in those (hot) conditions, i think he would have tuned his BH and be prepared for it in the final. Unfortunately, it was almost a case of coming suddenly to a new surface as soon as Nadal started to find his ground.

Well maybe choke is too strong a word . Rushing and being overconfident certainly . Like he thought he was playing at Wimbledon where the points are quicker and he's used to wrapping things up much quicker. In Rome he had two match points so really didnt do much wrong there, a bit unlucky .
In Paris 2006 I do think the enormity of what he was about to achieve must have affected him to some extent although you've explained many times how much the conditions affect the bounce. There did appear to be a 'turning point' in the second set after which Nadal started to play better and got back in the match. A gradual grinding down after that .
I do think Federer will have learned and improved from that experience though, but will he beat Nadal on clay before Paris ? That would be a big psychological blow .

Can't wait for MC to get started for sure.

:ok: Wonder if it will be on BBCi ?

In any case here the draw:

DRAW

Djoko is in the side of Fed...

Rafa seems to have a difficult draw IMO: Chela and then Safin ...

Well it is very very interesting...

Still I continue to believe on Rafa:

Rafa 45%
FED 40%

He lost 5% Rafa simply because he will have to fiight: but he is used too.. :D :D

Edit several interesting first round matches:

interesting first round match ups:

Youzhny-Moya I hope Youzhny in straight
Andreev-Acasuso I hope Andreev
Henman-Ferrero Well Henman but it will be Ferrero I guess
Gasquet-Verdasco Come on Richard
Almagro-Berdych Berdy you can do it PLEASE
Rochus-Soderling Rochus you have more Tennis than him...
Nieminen-Safin :bow: MARAT :bow:

Projected third-round matches:

Fed v Youzhny
Djokovic v Ferrer/Benneteau

Gonzalez v Ferrero (or Henman ?! :wacko:)
Gasquet v Ljubicic

Robredo v Berdych
Baghdatis v Davydenko

Murray v Nalbandian
Nieminen/Safin v Nadal.


There are quite a few intriguing early match-ups in the draw as well. Djoko could face a test against Gaudio, and Youzhny against Moya. Chela v Nadal and/or Safin v Nadal could also be intriguing, as already stated.

Interestingly, Fed has consecutive 3R and QF matches against Youzhny and Djoko; reminiscent of AO. He will play against a qualifier in the second (his first) round.

Potentially dangerous potential qualifiers include Falla and Kohlschreiber, but I don't see Fed falling early again in this one.

Well done to Marat going through --- hoping for a match against Nadal, for sure, no?

Qualifiers are now divided into the draw: Fed will face either Gabashvili or Seppi. Gabashvili should be favorite given recent form, although I'm not sure how comfortable he is on clay.

Meeting an in-form qualifier (with three matches under their belt) whom he has never played is perhaps not the best start of the tournament for Roger. However, I'm not sure either of these have what it takes to stop him --- provided Roger is as hungry for a good start to the clay season as he should be!

roflmao I've just realised that the man I tipped to be a darkhorse this week, Juan Ignacio Chela, is due to play Nadal in the next round. Ah well it was good while it lasted

Hi AA it will be a great match I hope...as well Djoko against Gatto..I mean this will be very interesting: Young gun against an "old" clay specialist :D

And BTW: Gonzo is playing double with Lubo :yikes: roflmao roflmao

Hi TV. Yes Nadal-Chela should be a great match. They met at Indian Wells a few weeks ago and Chela caused Rafa plenty of problems in the 2nd set. He is a man in good form and I think he will at least keep the match competitive being losing to Rafa in two tight sets
Djokovic-Gaudio is very interesting indeed. You can never underestimate these 'past masters'. Just when we think they are finished and past it, they surprise us. Djoko will not be underestimating Gato on clay that's for sure. He had better not mess up as I really want to see him play Federer in the quarter-finals.
Also many of us have been waiting to see Nadal and Safin play each other. If would be great if they met in the 3rd round. Safin loves being the underdog and his unpredictably could unsettle Rafa. Please let Marat win his 2nd round match

roflmao For some reason I find Ljubicic and Gonzalez playing doubles together hilarious. These funny pairings always seem to crop up.