The two US TMSs left more questions than answers and while we are all waiting for the clay season to start, I wonder what people think the next 9 months will yield tennis wise. 2 months ago, I was convinced Federer will take about everything including the French as his closest rival was looking really out of shape. 4 weeks on, Nadal appears stronger than ever, Fed loses to a lucky loser twice who in turn provided little fight for the young Novak. This latter is now seen by many as a real number one potential.

So what can we make of 2007?

1 – Was Federer’s consecutive losses to Canas a feat of hazard (entitled to think so as he “controlled” the match for 1 set and a half)? Should everything get back to normal once he stops hanging around with other sport stars like Sampras and Tiger and refocus? Some serious training and in particular better play of the big points is needed. But I am sure IW and Miami acted as wake up calls and we all know that beneath this amicable, gentle persona the killer is still there…maybe more than ever.

2 – Nadal – Let’s admit it! We thought his best years were behind him and that at 20 he was burnt out. IW proved us wrong and there is probably still a lot to come from the Spaniard. Imagine if his shots get more powerful, lengthy and that his stamina increases like it usually does with age (cyclists). Surely, we have more uncertainty than ever regarding his future. He is likely to be a real danger for everybody on the circuit for the years to come.

3 – Djoko – Clearly, there is no hype about this guy. What you see is what you get. Some were slow noticing, but I said at the AO before his match against Fed that I considered him his closest rival for the tournament. Fed was in supreme form and did not let him play his best but as TV pointed out, it was probably the best match of the tourney. Not in terms of suspense obviously but rally wise, they were the fastest and cleanest of the forthnight.

Surely, we can expect some other youngsters to come along or some older players to get into form but those 3 will have to share the bulk of the ATP points this year.

It will be interesting and as a Federer fan (note "fan", not "worshipper"), it will be good for some new players to step up and challenge him.

No doubt it will also provide the clown brigade (Wise, Chet, Chairman, etc.) more fodder but at least that isn't that much of an issue here.

Okay his last two tournaments have been shit but I don't think we should be talking this pessimistically just yet.

Nadal won Indian Wells but followed it with another unexpected loss at Miami! He is still not looking near his best (this probably will change with clay though).

So far Djoko has shown he is a great talent but Federer has always beaten him....

I'm sure Federer will follow this up with a stellar year. Remember it's all about the Grandslams as well and he is going to go deep in all of them and maybe win them all still!

Agreed Fed-Will - I dont think I will be writing off Fed just yet. Nice to see the upcomings doing well though - am looking forward to seeing Djoko in action, rather than watching a scoreboard...

Federer is as much of a force to be reckoned with as ever. I think half the problem-personally speaking, is that I had got to the point where I just didn't expect Federer to lose when he stepped on court...having forgotten that my previously lauded champions from previous eras did just that with much more regularity than Federer.
He's shown some kind of mental weakness, but easily overcome. As you say, beneath that impervious, unflappable exterior lies iron will and determination. I still think that the GS are his for the taking (we'll see as to RG :D ); whereas other players show flashes of brilliance and form, no one shows the same natural skill as Federer. Once he refocusses, he'll be out to prove a point.

Nadal: I always thought the quick write off of him was somewhat premature. He's shown real promise by mixing up his game more...coming into the net more and more, and his ability to grind down his opponents and drill out the points is as lethal as ever. Coupled with the fact he's about to go straight onto his stomping ground. He'll be determined to secure his 3rd RG, and it's hard to see beyond him on clay.

Djoko: brilliant that he won Miami, he's clearly on the ascendence and deservedly so. I think he'll push Fed and Nadal...but I think a couple more seasons before he bags a GS. That said, watch him go and prove me totally wrong now, and nab a Wimbledon!! I really hope he does well, I like his play and temperament.

Great to see some people coming through to mix things up and add to the rivalry...it certainly adds to spectator enjoyment.

I think you have hit the nail on the head with how you have expressed that as I think Roger himself perhaps started to believe that he just would/could not lose when he stepped on court. Perhaps the hanging out with Sampras and Tiger along with walking the Aussie Open also helped that feeling.

I think he got caught out a little by Canas, all champs have lulls now and again. There is no doubt that he is the best about at the mo, but it's still great for the ATP that he lost a couple of times I think.

As for Nadal and Djoko, they both have much to learn still (Djoko more so) and I think both will challenge for some time yet. I am looking forward to see how Nadal fairs at Wimbledon (and of course the French Open) this year. I think that will say alot about his character.

Gav

Glad to see that some are interested in tennis matters on this forum. ;)

I am convinced we have not see the end of Fed of course but in the same way that Nadal did put a serious dent in Federer clay Palmares thus far (imagine if Nadal was born 5 years later), I can now see guys like Djoko stepping up and put pressure on Fed on the other surfaces as well. Djoko is certainly one of the young players that matured early, but I can see Murray, Gasquet, Del Potro bringing their own angle and weapons and keep Federer busy.
We shoudl realise that Djoko tomorrow will be better than today, and same applies for the 3 others. With their confidence growing, they will quickly take over the 5 top rankings.

We know Fed had some close matches already over the last 3 years but we can expect those to be closer and see him lose more often....unless he can surprise all all over again. He is after all a phenomenon. As much as I can see the talent in Djoko or Nadal, they are not impressing me as much as the maestro thus far. I could see early on that the young Fed could become a better player than Sampras. I have yet to see someone who can potentially better him. I think Wimbledon will be his for another 2 years easily but on the other surfaces it is much more open.

my expectations (almost bite my tonque off...) ;
Fed won't win a single title this clay season. I've seen that same face again. All tensed up , despondent and a bit sad in a way. All because of a obsession called RG. He said he was in control the second match he lost against Canas, yet he lost the match because he panicced when it mattered (that drive volley at 5-5 in the decider?! come on..) . Just like last year in Rome. What happened at RG after the first set was a logical consequence of what he felt deep down inside.
To me those Canas matches were crucial, specially the second one. It's a bad sign he couldn't overcome that one against basically a cc specialist on a HC. To win RG he needs to overcome much tougher situations.
Am i totally out of hope? Well, Roger can win RG, if a few aspects favours him. Such as; chilly weather, Nadal out before the final, Canas in the bottom half.

BUT;
By the time Mats talks about balls again, Trolls asking who's the real no. 1, Rafa smells a take-over, Roger will win his fifth Wimbledon title.
At the end of 2007 -3 slams under his belt- after he demolished Djoko in the YEC final, tennis fans throughout the world will be asking themselves; "will he win RG next year?"

if you look at the careers of any of the greats you'll notice they all have blips, that's no big deal long term. It's just a question of how big the blip really. I doubt Feds blip will be big, but clay was always gonna be the most interesting surface for the guys this year and even more so now.

Hi Greaspipe - Those double break points missed could have also been converted. Another day, another outcome. Look at Wimbledon last year. Fed is a break down in the second set against his nemesis Nadal who comes back very strong. Keeps his calm and win the tie break despite all his bad nightmares resurfacing from the clay season with much more pressure than in any other clay match.

What I like about those defeats in Miami and IW is that they have taken pressure out of him and will be now like any other player on clay having to prove his worth instead of having to maintain an aura or reputation.

Cheer up, He might lose all the TMS on clay, I would still fancy him to win the French.

ah, thats interesting Tenez, I was just wondering after reading BTs thoughts about the clay always going to be the most interesting, if Fed is already writing it off in his head.

But I dont think thats Feds mentality and, like you say, pressure is off slightly, while he might not be writing off the clay season, others might be writing him off now, so he can go out and prove them all wrong.

I'd be quite happy to see him do that - even if its only at the french :)

Good post Tenez :ok:

I already predicted a changing of the guard at Indian Wells, and Miami further cemented my expectations. The changing of the guard won't involve Federer's demise just yet, but it looks like he's finally about to face some stiffer competition than the garbage of the last few years.

Like yourself though, I don't feel Fed's chances have decreased at the French; if anything, they've increased because the pressure will be off. However, that will all have changed once we actually get to that tournament. If he beats Nadal just once on the clay, I feel the floodgates could open, but once we arrive at RG the pressure will be immense and he'll probably choke.

With regard to Djokovic, he was excellent over the last two tournaments, but let's not forget Tomas Berdych won Paris in 2005 and we all expected him to kick on - if anything, he's got worse. Having said that, Djokovic has a much more consistent game than the frequently misfiring Czech. Unless Djoko suffers a similarly unexpected stagnation, I expect him to be a major factor at all upcoming clay court tournaments, along with, to a lesser extent, Canas and Almagro.

TBH with you,I cheekily suggested last year,that 2006 was Fed's peak,and that it would be a small slide from the top,gathering pace in a couple of years time.

There's something mysterious about tennis players who are great,and when they reach 25 start to fall off the perch,but Federer still I think has another great year yet,and if he can stop this apparent vunerability here,then it's a race for who's second.

I maintain still that Canas is the current bogeyman for Federer as someone has filled this role in previous years for the Fed.He could easily blow us all away in the clay season,but if he didn't then the security of the Wimbledon courts will offer him redemption.

I pretty much agree with this.He had that look on his face.The on of worry and its actually not a pleasant site because his tennis then becomes very ordinary and he loses belief.Its like the French Open Final last year.

Having said that I agree with what someone else said,that Federer is still very much a force.And this is fact.All great champions lose and all great champs have slumps and the prime example will have to be Andre Agassi who fell from grace so hard he lost his hair(literally).He did however end up back on top with a couple of slams to his name and a record amount of Mercedes Super 9 Titles now called TMS Events.

Federer by no means is in the Agassi Doldrums after 2 losses but he has had his armour dented.If he is a hungry as he claims to be then we can expect greater things from him yet.He is only 25 just like Rafa is only 20/21...

I don't think Federers iron determination can be underestimated-he'll pull himself out of this minute dip. And it really is the most minute of dips...

some reasonably interesting thoughts on this:

http://www.tennis-x.com/xblog/2007-03-28/155.php


I don't know if it's just me, but I am still to be convinced on Canas. I'll reserve judgement until I have seen if he can profit from his short run of form.

Though I may have sounded pessimistic in my original post reg Fed's chance to continue his domination, I certainly did not meant to be. And I certainly do not see Canas as a possible threat for the future. Canas has no weapon besides his legs speed/stamina (confirmed by Djoko in his interview) and that won't be enough on clay.

A fit Nadal will still be Roger's main threat for the next 9 months. Djoko is getting there but his game matches pretty well with Roger as it is pacy with angle giving Fed opportunities to be creative. The balance will shift when Djoko's pace increase as not many have been able to sustain pace and power without collecting some form of injuries.

No Sara - You are not alone. I wrote my post above at the same time as yours. Canas probably played on his favourite surface in Miami (slow and grippy to make the best use of his movement) but clay won't give his big legs the pace they can get.

Agreed.

Like you said, I still think it's the "Roger and Rafa show" for the immediate future, but seeing players such as Djokovic coming through is brilliant - and much needed.

Out of all the youngsters he seems to be one of the few that can match skill and consistency together...

Come on guys...How pessimist you are ..This is just beyond me..He is at 14 - 2 :yikes: win loss from YTD with a GS and an ATP title :yikes: ...Come on..

I mean 2 negative matches against the same player BTW and we are already talking about the end of an Era, the change of the guard roflmao ...Come on..

Did you decide to give free weapons to (troll, i.e. when he is playing in his schizophrenic behaviour this role) Wise & Co?

There is nothing wrong. There is no fire on the Roger's house (There will be if he will be eliminated at Wimbledon IMO)..The second lost against Canas was a VERY VERY tight match: In the third set the guy had several opportunities to run as often away of his opponent; He was not able to do that..Well Sh** happens..

But, should we count the number of times other great champions of our sport did the same in the past? ...Come on...This sort of stuff was possible in the past as it is possible now ;)

I mean I really do not understand how two matches can delete from your memories the AO: He win that without losing a set :yikes: (Like the great BORG) ..AND the end of last year, i.e. the YEC: AROD at that occasion he had two match points..Well FED was able to win..And the USO Final, the third set and the break opportunities for AROD well he was able to eliminate all of them and win another slam with a fourth set on fire.

Come on: FED is already one of the GOAT of this game. He is already in MonteCarlo preparing his major threat of the year, i.e. the clay season with Tony. Tony will be able to reassure him and to tell him that his class is 1000000 more than the Canas' one and than he can sdistry this guy whenever he wants to. :D

So come on guys and girls: FED is there and Djoko will be as well what we want more: Two great players that hopefully they will be able to trouble the " ON CLAY fiesta" of the usual (boring) purely on defence players like Rafa-Canas.. :rolleyes:

In no way am I a pessimist! I was just calling it like I saw it and its so funny because now I am watching an hour long highlights show of Miami and guess who is on...Federer against Canas!

Federer is by no way over,and this I believe not only as a fan but as a tennis player myself.He has heart and passion for success.He is still going do lots more.

Just having watched Nadal against Djoko in Miami,it actually reaffirms Nadal is going to be Federers main rival on clay.He ran everything dizzy in Miami against Djoko so imagine what a fit Nadal is going to be like on clay!

I expect Federer to at least walk away with 1 TMS on clay.Murphys law has a very odd way of rearing its head.Federer was defending champ at Indian Wells,he got knocked out and who was there in the wings to collect,Nadal!I expect the same repetition somewhere along the line on the clay events with roles being reversed!

Interesting stat.

TV - If you look at my points, I am not bothered about Canas's wins over fed but the rise of Djoko and "re-birth" of Nadal. Those 2 and other youngsters are certainly going to give Fed harder times than the usual Blake, Roddick and Daydenkos.

On that point I agree Tenez: Nadal & Djoko are the main threats for FED on clay and outside...On clay I am expecting as well some good news from Gasquet BTW...We will see :D

Darky :ok: ...You are great Fan of the Maestro I know..so, I was just exaggerating a bit...The clay season will be very exiting and we have simply to hope and :pray: :pray: that FEd will be able to capture at least a MS (Rome I guess more likely) and the FO Yeeesssss :rolleyes:

I dont think Djoko on clay,I see him as a Threat at Wimbledon for Federer because of his big,well directed solid serve and groundies.He is in no way an A-ROD character,he has weapons!

On clay,its definetly Nadal.Gasquet,as much as I love this boys flare and shotmaking abilities,he is overrated!No worries for Federer there!I will wait to see Murray on this years clay before I worry about him!

Tenez my friend,you and I are both lovers of the game and we both analyse just about every detail.Things happen for a reason.And thats a constant not only in sport but in the human way of life!

I'm almost giving up on waiting for Gasquet to deliver on his promise...he's not a threat to Federer as it stands, and he's got a long way to go before he is.

It's great that someone like Novak is challenging as opposed to the solid, but dull (imho) Davydenko's and Blakes of the tennis world. I was hoping for a change of guard, and it appears this is starting to happen. With Fed still leader of the pack ;)

I'll be interested to see how A-Rod performs this season, he's been hounded by that miserable defeat at the AO, but he is improving more and more. I just don't think he has the weapons for a GS win.

Darky I disagree over the possibilities open to Djoko on the dirty stuff this season: Last year he was already able to show some very interesting results and IMO without an injury during his quarter against Rafa at the FO he would have be able to trouble Rafa...Darky, Djoko is coming from Serbia and down there all is on the dirty: This is his natural environment. :rolleyes:

BTW: will Safin be able to come back and do something or do you think he is definitely gone :( ?

Safin has to step away from the self destruct button effective immediately

He's got the play to deliver, but the mental side needs to be sorted out.

I have to disagree with you here.Last year Djoko was relatively new to the scene.He played like a teenager going for broke and was rewarded with this fearless attitude,especially in his RG run.However this year he is more knowledgeable and match aware.His game has evolved a lot since last year and it may have been to his detriment for clay.

Did you watch the match against Nadal in Miami?Nadal ran everything down.Now imagine him doing that on clay.Dkoko wouldnt stand a chance against Nadal on clay.Djoko games is suited for fast surfaces.Having said that though,he is still very young and could surprise us all with his dimensions especially on clay!

Not so sure about the way in which Djoko was playing last year at FO, I have to say...Well I agree to desagree on that specific point: From my side he was not playing so differently (To be honest I started to follow him precisely at te FO :) )...

But once again great fun just ahead of us..I can wait B)

In any case, I see your points Darky..Thanks...

Well I guess Just wait and see :cheers:

I do think Safin could have the occasional good run this year, but I'm just not sure his heart is in it anymore. I've read a few interviews where he's been discussing his plans for a life after tennis, and he has insinuated that he has some business plans in the pipeline. If he's got his head in the game, Safin could do so well, but - judging by his performances in the last couple of weeks - I just don't think he's mentally in the right place. It'll be interesting to see how he does at the Davis Cup this weekend.

As for Federer, I think if he'd lost in the finals or semis of Indian Wells and Miami this discussion probably wouldn't be happening. I think it's the fact that he went out in earlier rounds and I guess not to a player that we expected. As a Federer fan i'm not particularly worried, and I do think that having these younger players coming up and winning things can only be good for men's tennis. :)

Thats where I first saw him and have been following him from.Because I was stunned that there was someone other than Janko Tipsarevic from Serbia and that he is also just as good if not better!And he is playing differently believe me.

All we can do is but wait!

;) Oh yeah Darky.

But you know that those kind of "jinxes" work only if unoticed at first. Once they are anticipated or envisaged, the Creator will do His best to wrong-foot us...if you know what I mean. :wacko: ;)

great to see the ascent of the Serbians!

Yes, we'll have to wait and see...it's going to be a great season

Yes, let's not forget Safin but more importantly Nalbandian. Nalbandian versus Djoko or versus Nadal could be extremely interesting as David's pride will definetely get the better of him against those guys.

Agreed,but Im a believer in Newtons action reaction theory and a bit of a maths lover.So that allows me to pick up patterns easily.Divine intervention is the odd thing out!

I agree,Nalbandians pride will allow him to excel,but also having said that,he is dangerous on clay and on any surface nonetheless!I would love to see those matches you posted about and especially Nadal Vs Nalbandian on clay!

Yes I have lost a bit of patience with Gasquet as well. like Djoko he had 6 break points against Canas in their first set in Miami but missed the first 5 which would have given him the first set.

However it is when we dismiss those guys chances that they are most dangerous and a bit of confidence could simply see him back to the top. Let's not forget that he was 12th a year ago before all those young guys and before his elbow injury. He just has to learn the patient game like Djoko and Fed and he will certainly be a force to be reckoned with.

Gasquet is just too injured for my liking...Everyone kept saying he is young etc we need to wait...Its become like we are waiting for the second coming of christ with this boy.He has been around for like ever!

roflmao Gasquet could be as well the ultimate proof of the String Theory in fundamental physics...I mean if this theory is correct then it seems we will be able to navigate on time... roflmao

Have a look here

Darky you like math then ;) Gasquet is definitely a player to follow... roflmao

Ay,even that string theory is simpler than Gasquet...I swear,give me a good Sudoku quiz or something Algebraic rather make me wait for this kid!

Can you understand my frustration?So immensley talented,what is he waiting for?

Sad but true on the Safin front - its all about the mental with him and he just doesnt seem to have his head in it anymore. Would love to see him have some good runs - and maybe the Davis Cup will inspire him a bit - he strikes me as the type to go for it when there is national pride at stake.

And agree re Fed. Already said, not about to write him off just yet, and loving the young ones coming up ready to challenge. Can only make it interesting.