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Title: Repeating the mistakes of Indian Wells?


barrystar - March 22, 2007 11:04 AM (GMT)
Before Indian Wells Fed knocked up with former World No. 1 Pete Sampras and lost in the 2nd round after receiving a bye through the 1st. Many criticised his preparation, others said he is saving it all up for the clay season anyway.

Now he is walking the Course with his new friend Tiger Woods at Doral before playing at Key Biscayne. Is this a good omen (he won in Shanghai the last time he walked the course with Woods), bad preparation as at Indian Wells (allegedly), or the ultimate wetdream for the Nike marketing department?

The two tours seem to love it:

ATP: http://www.atptennis.com/en/news/2007/woods_miami.asp
PGA Tour: http://www.pgatour.com/2007/tournaments/r4...ture/index.html

Tenez - March 22, 2007 11:51 AM (GMT)
I did not see the match against lucky loser Canas but what I said before the 2 TMSs is that I woudl be extremely surprised if he played both this time around. He even said after or during the AO that the off season was way too short and will certainly not want to play as much as last year. Clearly I think his mind is already on clay. He will try to play Miami and do well but probably won't care much if he loses early. I expect a very different commitment on the European clay for sure.

Winning or Losing Miami? who cares really.

Dark_Necrofear - March 22, 2007 12:09 PM (GMT)
QUOTE
I did not see the match against lucky loser Canas but what I said before the 2 TMSs is that I woudl be extremely surprised if he played both this time around. He even said after or during the AO that the off season was way too short and will certainly not want to play as much as last year. Clearly I think his mind is already on clay. He will try to play Miami and do well but probably won't care much if he loses early. I expect a very different commitment on the European clay for sure.

Winning or Losing Miami? who cares really.


I pretty much agree with this...It does however matter to me whether he wins Miami because with Nadal surging with confidence after Indian Wells,it makes it harder for him to get at least 1 of those titles on clay!

chairman - March 22, 2007 12:38 PM (GMT)
Is federer tiger woods caddy?

Tenez - March 22, 2007 01:06 PM (GMT)
Clearly the fact that he is having fun with Wood now confirms the view that he does not care much. Knowing how motivated and prepared he wants to be when focused, it might be worthwhile to put some money on the opposition for Miami. At the same time, i believe there is something in him that will click on time to get this Miami trophy under his belt again.

Difficult to say really, but I personally don't care.

Chairman, Federer is probably Wood's caddy atm but I guess like those guys who Balestero was caddying when he was younger, Wood must be thinking " glad he picked up tennis and not golf otherwise I would be like another Ljubicic in the Golf world.

barrystar - March 22, 2007 01:12 PM (GMT)
I think he'll want to win, or he should do. Winning is a habit that you want to keep up, and which you don't want your rivals to learn.

He has had longer than normal to prepare, and this is not the first time he has gone out with Woods before a tournament. I don't think losing like at IW would do him any good.

Dark_Necrofear - March 22, 2007 01:34 PM (GMT)
QUOTE
Chairman, Federer is probably Wood's caddy atm but I guess like those guys who Balestero was caddying when he was younger, Wood must be thinking " glad he picked up tennis and not golf otherwise I would be like another Ljubicic in the Golf world.


roflmao I love that wit...

A theory...What if Nadal wins Miami as well and this in turn has an adverse effect on him resulting In Federer winning all 3 claycourt Masters provided he plays Hamburg!

What If?

Tenez - March 22, 2007 01:40 PM (GMT)
QUOTE (barrystar @ Mar 22 2007, 01:12 PM)
I think he'll want to win, or he should do. Winning is a habit that you want to keep up, and which you don't want your rivals to learn.


Yes....and no. He might be so focused on the coming clay season that he might not want to take the risk to injure himself on hard surfaces. He hardly plays before the USO and hardly after cause he is worried about playing on hard or too much (same with the AO btw). He proved that he could win IW and Miami both and even 2 years in a row so I don;t think those tournies bring much value to him now.

I am not saying that is the case and he will want to get out of Miami but if he is really committed to the clay season as I would expect him to be, then Miami or IW could simply be irrelevant to him.


fedrules - March 22, 2007 03:53 PM (GMT)
Fed was quoted in Swiss press saying that it was always dangerous to meet a player like Canas in the first round and that had he played him in the 3rd/4th he would've beaten him.Arrogance or shrewd analysis?
He certainly doesn't seem too bothered about the loss and if he comes back in the same manner as after his defeat by Roddick,his next opponent is in for a hard time.
Today's papers featured photos of a smiling Fed and Tiger trailed by a hot and flustered Mirka.Tiger has been giving Rog golfing tips apparently.

liam_valid - March 22, 2007 04:00 PM (GMT)
He had an off day. I don't think preparation comes into it, and he certainly wont lose here just because he went for a walk with Tiger Woods. He will lose because he is meeting Tim in an early round :)

Tenez - March 22, 2007 04:06 PM (GMT)
QUOTE (liam_valid @ Mar 22 2007, 04:00 PM)
He had an off day. I don't think preparation comes into it, and he certainly wont lose here just because he went for a walk with Tiger Woods. He will lose because he is meeting Tim in an early round :)

:D

Indeed. Tim and his deadly S&V game.

Tennisveritas - March 22, 2007 04:40 PM (GMT)
Here some interesting reamks by FED about Miami, i.e. in particular about the speed of the court:

Q. How are the conditions here with the court? I know the weather is
different than Indian Wells, but how does the court play?
ROGER FEDERER: Quite similar. I think it's very slow here actually, too.
I don't know if it's slower than the last couple years, but it's hard to
hit winners from the baseline. You've kind of got to work your way into
those points. Kind of force the error, not actually get winners and stuff.
So it's very similar to Indian Wells, it's just humidity and wind, which
makes it harder to control, and sweat, which makes it difficult.


Q. Are you going to make any change in your game plan for this tournament?
ROGER FEDERER: Well, I guess so, yeah, because I had so much time off. I
had over 12 days of time basically to get ready from one to the next
tournament. Last few years every time I've come with a win from Indian
Wells here to Miami, so the preparation is definitely different.
I don't know if it's going to help me right away, but I think in the
long run I will definitely have no problems with energy towards the end
of the year because I haven't played much this season yet. So for me it
will definitely be good to get more matches here in Miami.

In addition an interesting aspect concerning Rafa:

Q. Any thoughts on Rafael Nadal you can share with us?
ROGER FEDERER: What do you want me to tell you?


Q. After a big win --
ROGER FEDERER: Yeah, he plays fantastic. For some it may come as a
surprise. For me, I think it's normal. I always said I think he's -- if
I'm not No. 1 he should be No. 1 because he's been playing so good over
the last couple of years. For me I can't believe he hasn't won a
tournament since the French Open.
But he was not playing that bad. People were saying he was in a slump
and everything, and I knew he just came up against one guy that was
really hot. Indian Wells suits his game, and finally he played like he
usually does and beat all the guys, so I was happy to see that.

Further details here

Ciao :rolleyes:

Tenez - March 22, 2007 04:53 PM (GMT)
You always come up with the good quotes TV. You must be chasing this man's words to the 4 corners of the world. ;)

Just a thought but I remember at the end of last season in Japan, in his blog, Fed tells us how he woke up in the middle of the night in panick after a nighmare. His girlfriend told him that's because he was playing too much and was probably extremely tired. I would not be surprised if some lessons were learnt from that experience. I think it is funny the way he says here that he will have more energy at the end of this season than the last one by playing less.

RafaRoastLamb - March 22, 2007 06:18 PM (GMT)
Hmmm. Nice of him to say those things about Nadal. I think he's going to come into this tourney really wanting to make a point and he's going to win the whole thing without dropping a set. I think Rafa could go out very early to the likes of Youzhny etc. He was very lucky indeed that other players took care of the tricky ones (Berdych, Blake, Youzy - not to mention FedEx) before they got to him in Indian Wells.

greasepipe - March 22, 2007 06:55 PM (GMT)
QUOTE

He was very lucky indeed that other players took care of the tricky ones (Berdych, Blake, Youzy - not to mention FedEx) before they got to him in Indian Wells.


RRL, i wouldn't be too concerned about your hero, last week he probably played his best tennis on HC of his career .

on topic; i'm afraid Roger lost some rhythm and therefore we won't get see his usual standard next week. It's true, last season was quite busy but it didn't looked like he was running out of steam at the end of the season. On the contrary; the "MAdrid-Basel-Yec" run can be considered as one of his most impressive runs.
A good rest is essential but 13 matches in 4 months.... :shrug:

barrystar - March 22, 2007 07:09 PM (GMT)
Absolutely greasepipe, and if he cocks up at Miami he will be hitting the clay season with very vew matches under his belt.

Federer-Williams - March 22, 2007 07:33 PM (GMT)
I am a Federer fan through and through. I know one first round loss shouldn't make me that worried at all.

BUT if he did win Miami (which is not ludicrous considering his current form) and took that momentum on to win the clay events (like he has the past two years) he would have helleluva momentum.

The above scenario seems at the moment dauntingly realistic. It would not be an upset if Nadal was to do that. If he did do it then Fed would be alot more worried IMO and the commentators would be talking again about Nadal being "the real no.1"

Having said that I doubt this will happen. I expect Federer to win Miami and beat Nadal atleast once on clay if not 2 or 3 times.

Nick Havoc - March 22, 2007 09:14 PM (GMT)
Quick quiz:

When was the last time Federer lost two consecutive matches?

Lex - March 22, 2007 10:14 PM (GMT)
the man goes for a game of golf and suddenly it's a cause for concern?

perleeeeez

Manzikert - March 22, 2007 11:31 PM (GMT)
QUOTE (Nick Havoc @ Mar 22 2007, 05:14 PM)
Quick quiz:

When was the last time Federer lost two consecutive matches?

Not so long ago as one might expect (unlike, say, the last time Federer was bagelled--1999!). It was in 2003, losing to Philippoussis in the third round of Hamburg and then in the opening round of RG to Horna. He came close in 2004, losing to Hrbaty in his opening match in Cincinnati (the Slovak still has a spotless 2-0 H2H against Federer) and then to Berdych in the second round of Athens (saddling us with Massu as a quixotic gold medallist).

As for the furore over whether more vain exercises in frivolity will similarly imperil his chances on the court, I don't think Federer is in any danger. Cañas was the wrong opponent at the wrong time, like Murray in Cincinnati. Nobody in his draw this time can trouble him until potentially Haas in the QFs. And much as I might like to see Henman get back to even in his H2H against Federer--his was the last of the non-Nadal last in terms of leading after a substantial number of matches played, until having to face him three times last year--I don't see it happening somehow. =P

Dark_Necrofear - March 23, 2007 07:53 AM (GMT)
Our Cable has an interactive part on the remote control which brings up on the screen stories from around the world and you can select which sport you want to read about.

Yesterday they had an ineterview with Federer and he sys that he has had much more time to train because of his early loss in Indian Wells...He then went on to say that he has been training intensely for the upcoming claycourt season.He expressed that he hopes all the training pays off be cause he doesnt want to be a first round casualty in the clay events.

This reaffirms that he is clearly in the depths of the red stuff...He wants that French Open title!

BIG-TODGER - March 23, 2007 10:05 AM (GMT)
Agreed Dark, Fed must to want the French and clay has to be his priority.
I just hope he doesn't want it too much, it could be a lot of interenal pressure, but it's hard to escape the fact he needs it to propel him from great to greatest.

Dark_Necrofear - March 23, 2007 10:15 AM (GMT)
QUOTE
Agreed Dark, Fed must to want the French and clay has to be his priority.
I just hope he doesn't want it too much, it could be a lot of interenal pressure, but it's hard to escape the fact he needs it to propel him from great to greatest.


Its kinda borderlining on obsession.Just like Lendl and Wimbledon and he just couldnt win there,just like Johnny Mac at the French as well...I hope he is able to go BEYOND their flaws and actually succeed.That for me would be a total sign of tennis evolution in the form of take past greats mistakes and transforming them into your own success...There is no other great than that!

RT. - March 23, 2007 10:21 AM (GMT)
I'd like to see Federer play more clay tournaments so it might be good for him to lose early at Miami. He might then decide to play one of the smaller clay events as well and not just MC & Rome.

Tennisveritas - March 23, 2007 11:07 AM (GMT)
QUOTE (RT. @ Mar 23 2007, 11:21 AM)
I'd like to see Federer play more clay tournaments so it might be good for him to lose early at Miami. He might then decide to play one of the smaller clay events as well and not just MC & Rome.

RT, I see your point and I agree until a certain point...What about being ready to fight on clay with your motivation at the top: From that side I guess the best bust is a long Miami till the final :ok: ...

I have as well the feeling RG is becoming a sort of fix point for him: But, I mean, it is so human right: You have already win all the majors and several times and this is the only one you do not have yet...well it is hard to stay calm and relax when, moreover, last year at the same time there was already the same expectations and pressure.

For me, FED is already so "exceptional": behave as he is behaving under these circumstances :yikes: :yikes: : Just impossible to fully understand for me (i.e. How he manage to stay so calm :bow: ...AHHH :yikes: :yikes: !!!!)


barrystar - March 23, 2007 11:16 AM (GMT)
QUOTE (Lex @ Mar 22 2007, 10:14 PM)
the man goes for a game of golf and suddenly it's a cause for concern?

perleeeeez

That's not my view - I was merely asking others for their's. It may be that Fed did not treat IW as seriously as he might have done - but walking out with Woods is not an indication he has not done so with Miami given the Shanghai precedent.

He is likely to know better than any of us what is good for him so I can only speculate when I suggest that going into the clay season with a Miami win under his belt is likely to do him more good than any other scenario I can think of.

We are in slightly uncharted territory compared to the last 3 years given that in the biggest tournaments (GS, Masters Cup, IW & Miami) it is unusual for Fed to fall at such an early hurdle. However, this year I think that the pressure on the clay season for him is even higher than last year and I would not be surprised if his main eye is on that.

Tennisveritas - March 23, 2007 12:33 PM (GMT)
Well, what is sure is that the RG is definitely in his head...Look at the following interview coming from his web site:

"Roger, you are receiving large amounts of praise and awards. Don’t you sometimes feel that it is all a bit too much?

I guess I have merited the praise, but I do sometimes wish people would give me some more time and say: okay, you’re doing a great job, all these records and so on, but let’s wait until the end of your career and see if you were really the best looking back from that point or if you even get close. I don’t play to break records, I play to win. I’m not surprised people talk about it, but I do occasionally think it is too much for me.


One of your next goals is certainly winning the Grand Slam. Would it be a failure if you didn’t make it?

No, no way. I think what people really want to see me do is win the French Open. They’ve more or less seen all the rest, I think. It’s obvious, if I were able to choose, I’d go for the French Open, but the most emotional and best title to me will always be Wimbledon. :ok: "

details: here

The last answer is quite ambiguous No? Well might be not :bow: Wimbledon :bow: is still the best of everything...Right Roger Right

Tenez - March 23, 2007 01:08 PM (GMT)
Very interesting comment again. It answers the question of a thread I created a few weeks ago.

It seems that for his career perspective he would NOW chose the french over Wimbledon even though Wimbledon will always be his favourite slam for personal reasons.

Which again means how desperately he wants the FO. I can't help thinking that he has already left Miami mentally or probably was never there. He probably did not want to go to the French with to much pressure of having too many records at stake. Winning the French and holding the 4 Slams at once is enough.

Losing IW, Miami, and a few clay tournies as a preparation could put him back as a challenger for the FO - an much easier situation for most players - and ease a pressure which could have burried him otherwise. Smart move if that is the case.

greasepipe - March 23, 2007 05:52 PM (GMT)
QUOTE

He probably did not want to go to the French with to much pressure of having too many records at stake. Winning the French and holding the 4 Slams at once is enough.

Losing IW, Miami, and a few clay tournies as a preparation could put him back as a challenger for the FO - an much easier situation for most players - and ease a pressure which could have burried him otherwise. Smart move if that is the case.


Could be true, Tenez. But i still think the best weapon Roger could bring to the clay season -or even RG final- is the spirit of invincibility. This helped him through some tough matches over the years
I'm sure Rafa wouldn't mind if his clay court streak is still running while entering the RG final.

QUOTE

the man goes for a game of golf and suddenly it's a cause for concern?


No of course not, but this thread is more about Roger's intensions at IW and Miami.
To me it's risky to approach Miami in a frivolous way. Although i'm not saying he is.

Tenez - March 23, 2007 06:31 PM (GMT)
QUOTE (greasepipe @ Mar 23 2007, 05:52 PM)

Could be true, Tenez. But i still think the best weapon Roger could bring to the clay season -or even RG final- is the spirit of invincibility. This helped him through some tough matches over the years
I'm sure Rafa wouldn't mind if his clay court streak is still running while entering the RG final.

Good point but it all depends. If you are really dominating on a surface like Fed on hard or grass and Rafa on clay, then you don't mind the supremacy. But ask most players, including Rafa and Fed, it was harder to retain their first slam than winning it the first time.

I think Fed was a better claycourter than Rafa in semi FO 2005 and even in 2006 but he actually never played really well -except glimpses in some sets - cause he was always under more pressure than Nadal. Nadal always played as if he was the challenger, strangely enough. Maybe he wants to change that.

Of course i am not saying that he will want to lose the first clay matches but psychology he has to consider all his matches on clay as being the challenger and not the one "we" all expect to win. This is a very important approach in my view. He has to lose this confidence - if not arrogance - and play the game as if he had all to prove.

barrystar - March 23, 2007 07:12 PM (GMT)
Ooooh... that all sounds a bit too clever to me. I would think that he should do what he normally does to win, work on his technique, and get on with it. The minute he starts thinking about the difference between the mentality of a challenger or favourite and which he would rather have he may out-psyche himself. He knows how to win, he's a winner he ought just to hang onto that and trust in his technique.

greasepipe - March 24, 2007 09:01 AM (GMT)
QUOTE

I think Fed was a better claycourter than Rafa in semi FO 2005 and even in 2006 but he actually never played really well -except glimpses in some sets - cause he was always under more pressure than Nadal. Nadal always played as if he was the challenger, strangely enough. Maybe he wants to change that.


A win against Nadal on clay , that's what Fed needs before entering RG. Last year Fed had a superb clay season but those missed matchpoints in Rome were in the minds of both men in the RG final and finally gave Roger that despondent look

Tenez - March 24, 2007 10:57 AM (GMT)
Yes he could do with a win on clay before but I don't know if this is necessary. I don't think the 2 MPs where in his mind in the FO final but would certainly have come up to mind had he got into that position at the French. But he was never really close, was he?

I think Wilander was mentally the strongest player I ever saw. Simply because he never considered himself a favourite but played every match as if he had all to prove. Never saw signs of nerve in him either. He clearly made the most of his "talent" and was only beaten by better players. Fed needs to get into that skin at the FO. He could win all the clay court matches before which could be helpful for his confidence but winning the big title, the one that matters, will always be of a different order and I don't think previous matches will or even should come into effect on the field.

Tenez - March 24, 2007 11:01 AM (GMT)
Actually to support my point. Let's look at what happened last year. He started well, didn't he? How more confident can you be after almost bageling your opponent and being 40-0 up in the second set?

So in my view, it is not about building confidence there, but getting the job done by eliminating all kind of thoughts about previous matches while at the task and concentrating on the game.

Big Al - March 24, 2007 12:56 PM (GMT)
Yes interesting how much of winning is in the head !
Federer clearly was playing well enough to beat Nadal last year but seems like the enormity of what he was about to achieve got to him.The two match points at Rome probably were on his mind as well.
This year he's a better player, and has an even better chance of winning RG . He just has to find a way to play his game and not think too much about the expectation of winning or of previous losses . Its as simple and as difficult as that .



vivahate - March 24, 2007 01:26 PM (GMT)
i for one am looking forward to the federer/nadal clay court season showdowns...i do hope they materialize.

BIG-TODGER - March 24, 2007 01:31 PM (GMT)
QUOTE (barrystar @ Mar 23 2007, 01:12 PM)
Ooooh... that all sounds a bit too clever to me. I would think that he should do what he normally does to win, work on his technique, and get on with it. The minute he starts thinking about the difference between the mentality of a challenger or favourite and which he would rather have he may out-psyche himself. He knows how to win, he's a winner he ought just to hang onto that and trust in his technique.

There's a very good chance you might be right on that, but i also can't help thinking he needs to stay fresh and in top physical shape for clay and fore fitting
a tournament or two before hand doesn't sound bad, especially as by winning he would have played more than anyone else.

greasepipe - March 24, 2007 02:26 PM (GMT)
QUOTE

I think Wilander was mentally the strongest player I ever saw. Simply because he never considered himself a favourite but played every match as if he had all to prove.


Well, i guess it was easier for Wilander to maneuver himself into a underdog position then it is for Roger at the moment. ;)

Clearly the best thing roger can do is to play as if he has all to prove but i can't see why it would help him to lose some matches beforehand.
That sounds a bit forced to me and it won't take any pressure away.
Maybe later on in his career things will turn out like this but not during his finest hour.

besides; interesting debate!

Tenez - March 24, 2007 04:40 PM (GMT)
QUOTE (greasepipe @ Mar 24 2007, 02:26 PM)


QUOTE
Well, i guess it was easier for Wilander to maneuver himself into a underdog position then it is for Roger at the moment.  ;)


True. But Wilander was also better than many lower ranked players but he never expected to win and approached those matches the same as if it was lendl or Mc. While Roger has/had a bit too much self confidence bording to arrogance almost. But as he is also a very wise man I suspect, he is probably fighting this tendency as well. he is reaching a second phase of his career where now he will want to concentrate to grand slams and number 1 spot only. losing or winning Miami is in my view irrrelevant now.

QUOTE
Clearly the best thing roger can do is to play as if he has all to prove but i can't see why it would help him to lose some matches beforehand.
That sounds a bit forced to me and it won't take any pressure away.
Maybe later on in his career things will turn out like this but not during his finest hour.


I think he shoudl approach the French, the way he played at the French not in the first set but rather in the 4th when he was 4/1 or 5/2 down. Nothing to lose. And as Big AL says; "Its as simple and as difficult as that ."

QUOTE
besides; interesting debate!


Indeed. I recognise that I might be completely wrong. But in the same way those guys work very hard on their technics and tactic, I feel they also work on on their mindset when approaching those milestones tournaments.

Big Al - March 24, 2007 08:57 PM (GMT)
If you look at the failure of Borg at the US, Lendl at Wimbledon ,McEnroe at the French it does seem the mental pressure is much greater in getting that fourth slam to complete the set . Plus its often their least favourite surface . Maybe theres a lesson to be learned from Agassi in 1999 who wasnt really expected to win so much less pressure .




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