http://www.oddschecker.com/betting/mode/o/...94x/sid/1147580
Victor Chandler are giving odds of 15/8 on Nadal to win the French Open. They are either being very generous here or just incredibly stupid. Nadal is the indisputable king of clay, double champion at Roland Garros over the past two years, has won his last 62 matches on clay, and has beaten his main (and probably only) claycourt rival on all 4 occasions that they have met on the surface. It's safe to say that he has earned the right to be the outright favourite for the tournamernt. I'll definately be sticking some money on this.

Bookmakers are business men and their odds reflect the caprices of the punters. They shouldn't be taken as an objective court of opinion as to who is the more likely winner! The odds of 15/8 reflect the bookmakers current calculation, based on the bets they have received, that they will be in profit whoever wins.

Fair enough, but 15/8 on a man who is head and shoulders above the rest on clay to win the French Open is a very attractive bet indeed! £20 of my hard earned money is sure to be placed on this.

Sure. Don't forget, professional gamblers are people who shrewdly bet against the public perception of the odds, rather than the odds themselves. As a Federer fan, I hope you lose your money but I agree you have found yourself a bargain!

At this remove from the Tournament (3 months) those odds include Nadal's fitness and what may, or may not, occur during a clay court season that has not even started.

Recent events suggest: a. Nadal is prone to injuries b. Federer's form has improved c. off the clay many more people have found a way to beat Nadal than had been the case in the run up to the 2006 FO.

Having said all that, I think it is right to assume that Nadal will get his form back on clay, and he is the favourite (even strong favourite) to win, including beating Federer should they meet in the final, but there is a HUGE difference between those odds now, and such odds being offered on 28th May.

TBH his omens are getting worse. He loses again in the DB quarters there goes points and his crown.

SO depressed Rafa is out of Dubai in yet another lousy quarter final. It was great to see Mikhail so happy and thankful to his fans though. I hope Nadal gets some advice from a hc specialist. Need a stiff alcoholic beverage now...

Was a shame that Nadal lost, but Youzhny is in brilliant form right now, Though this result doesn't affect his clay court chances one bit. Once he has the clay under the feet again, his vicious topspin, standing ten feet behind the baseline and unrivalled fitness will ensure that he'll be ok. Until someone can actually beat him on clay, he's nothing less than the strong favourite for RG.

I do think it will affect his confidence, even though the surface is different. For example, in the Rome final when he saved two match points against Federer, he had a first serve average of 83%! I think when under pressure, and he has come under pressure on clay and not just from Federer, I think we are not going to see quite the same self belief. He knows he can be beaten and everyone has seen he can be beaten. I think it will be harder on clay but I'm convinced he will find it harder.

I still think Nadal is the favorite to win FO if he stays injury free. But that is a big IF. He has had more injuries in the last 6 months or so and once the clay season commence he could be prone to more.

I actually think the bookmaker are not that wrong. Unfortunately, like most of us experience, they overall win and we overall lose. AA I d love to take on your bet actually.

I don't follow the logic that because one has won the French (or anything else) twice, he/she shoudl win thrice...in a row! You only win a third time if you are still better than the others. Federer winning 4 Wimbies won't guarantee him a fifth title. Only if he is still better than the rest will he be in a good position to do so.

I am not sure Nadal's confidence is that high at the moment and physically at his best. We have seen however other players gaining in confidence and I believe the next FO will be quite open. Federer for sure as good a contender as anyone.

yes, if he can address Nadals topspin and adding to that his confidence going in, Federer will be in a strong position. I'll also be watching Gonzalez-he's good on clay, not a great record at RG (QF once??), but I think he'll be one to watch this year.


That said-Nadal is unstoppable on clay, I still think only injuries could bring him down. I think it will be a Federer/Nadal final again...

That's pretty much right. Nadal is head and shoulders above the rest on clay. A 62 match winning streak is absolutely phenomenal and no fluke afterall. Coria at Rome 2006, Niemenen at Barcelona 2006 and Federer at Rome 2006 are the only matches where he was close to defeat. People also mention the Bastad final in 2005, but while he went a set down he gained early breaks of serve in the 2nd and 3rd, so he wasn't on really on the verge of defeat there. 3 matches out of 62 is pretty good ratio from Nadal's behalf. The fact that no-one in the last couple of years has had what it takes to beat Nadal on clay is why he is the sensible favourite to win the French Open. He will take some stopping that's for sure. It's very much his title to lose. At the minute the claycourt scene sees Nadal comfortably ahead of Federer, and then Federer comfortably ahead of everyone else. We'll have to see at Monte-Carlo whether this balance is altered at all.

When it comes to clay there will be tons of pressure on both Fed and Nadal.
Fed because he's yet to beat Nadal on clay and because Fed knows it's the slam he really wants most of all to complete the set and make history.
Nadal because if he doesn't do well on clay not only will he slide down the rankings and he's done nothing since Wimbledon-being the no2 must be starting to become an embarrassment, when apart from clay he isn't.
I'm not sure i see anyone else snatching the French, but wouldn't be too shocked if they did.

15/8 is not exactly long odds. Plus, you have to remember that these are the odds of him winning not an individual match, but 7 consectutive matches. What are the odds on Federer winning. If you tell me Federer has shorter odds than that, then I would be mildly surprised, but I'm guessing 15/8 makes Nadal the favourite.

The same bookmakers make the Federer the 11/10 favourite. Nadal's odds have been cut to 13/8 in the last couple of days.

OK, so I'm mildly surprised, but as someone else pointed out, it's more a reflection of the pattern of bets than the bookies' opinions. The folks placing the bets seem to think Federer is the favourite. :shrug:

Hmm, I'm surprised that the bookies havse Fed as the favourite..

I agree that when the Clay season comes around Rafa will probably get himself back into the groove, and back to winning ways.

However, I'm hardly saying anything radical in the observation that if Fed and Rafa meet again in the clay tournaments prior to RG and Fed manages to win even just one of them, then his chances are bound to increase.

I'd still put Rafa as favourite simply due to his track record. But if he loses on clay to Fed at all this year then I think that this will be hugely significant, just as it would/ could have been had Rafa beat Fed at SW19 last year.

I wonder what the odds might be on a Fed Rafa final at RG? :shrug:

Do you guys see any players who could possibly prevent a Nadal-Federer final? To me it doesn't seem likely. Nalbandian has gone backwards since last year, and is not exactly in the best shape. Ferrero is a shadow of the player that ruled clay in 2003. Gonzalez is not as good on clay as people think considering he's from South America (he prefers the hardcourts). Murray's fitness (improving but there is a way to go) will prevent him from handling a series of gruelling matches on clay. Safin is a lost cause. Gasquet has never gone beyond the 4th of a grand slam and struggles to cope under pressure. Davydenko and Robredo are solid players who don't really have any major weapons to hurt the top players. Del Potro isn't ready yet.

I don't see Nadal head and shoulders above the rest on clay. He is better than the rest for sure and had amazing results the last 2 years but he also had a few close matches. His physical and mental edge saved him several times. I don't think he will keep this edge this season and certainly not for ever. Those close matches he had against Coria, Gaudio, PHM, Federer, Berdych could turn differently this year. The way Blake blasted Almagro last year at the French should also be a potential threat. And we have yet to see how he would do against Nalbandian or Safin if those 2 were at their best. nalbandian played probably the best set of the FO in his semi against Fed and I am pretty confident that with this kind of form, he would have had Nadal's scalp had he been able to maintain it for three sets.

I personally would be pretty surprise if Nadal were to win the French this year with the form he has shown thus far. He can for sure but I see it very open.