Ok - Neither of them have gone past the 3rd round yet and Youshny is going to be a good challenge in my view for Federer. But clearly Federer and Djokovic should be meeting this week end and it should make for a great match.

I have a strange feeling about this one as I think Djoko is probably capable of beating a nervous out of rhythm Federer. Federer can improve after every round as he has done in his previous slams but Djoko can break his timing with his hard shots and agressive serving and consistency.

Federer's main strength will be his physical preparation. I m sure he will make djoko run from R to L and L to R which should at the end tire the youngster.
What's your take on this one?

Federer will win I think in 3 mabye 4 sets.
I don't think he will have much trouble .Its not like he has been terrible lately either.

May the tennis gods listen to you.

With the proviso that they do meet up, then it should be a really good match!

Novak is definitely on an upward curve in his game, and will certainly test Roger. Their David Cup meeting last year was apparently a really good match, very competitive, and brought out some of Roger's 'A' game, by all accounts.

I think that Roger will win in Melbourne too. He is bound to be in good shape physically, and has great competitive instinct. Novak might have had more of a chance over a best of 3 match, but best of 5 match should favour Roger more. The Fedster might drop a set, so maybe a win in 4.. I hope!! If not then a straight sets win for Roger would also be ok ;)

Tenez, i'm about the last person in this world who pulls your arguments in doubt (specially after that legendary YEC 2006 prediction ;) ) but your doubts about Federer lately do make me concerned a bit
Fed will be sharp, he once called Djoko (what's in a name..) "a joke" so he knows he'll have to.
I think Djoko's game suits Fed well as we all know Fed likes to play against hard hitters. In fact; this style favours Feds' rhythm.
But let's say it will be a tough one and it will be a 5 setter, do you believe Djoko can keep up with Roger for 4+ hours? Mentally; probably , but physically?

The other day, I looked at Djokovic's results on the ATP site and in truth, he hasn't really done anything much (perhaps taking Ancic to five sets on grass?) to warrant quite the level of enthusiasm he generates here. Maybe he will beat Federer and storm to the title but he will have to produce results that he hasn't done so far. If he does, then hats off to the guy (who is only 19 after all.) But I do there is a bit of wishful thinking going on here.

"Federer's main strength will be his physical preparation. I m sure he will make djoko run from R to L and L to R which should at the end tire the youngster.
What's your take on this one?"
:wacko:

Federer's main strength is allways his better tecnics, bigger confidence and better all around game :doh:

And in reality allmost anything can happen but there are some things harder than others.
And to beat federer in a GSlam in five sets in the hardest thing in tennis. So tomorow for Djoko to win three things would have to happen: federer to have an off day, djoko to play the game of his life or Federer to pull out because of injurie. And the first two would have to happen simultaneously :tsk:

Anyway this remember me the following story:

Once upon time in a jungle tarzoc was the ruller and he lives there with janez and sometimes cheta-pv would come for some monkie stuff. But the life there became dull and sad, so they use to go to a savanna near them to watch the other animals.
janez liked a lot the lion king but sudenly he needed to make things exciting so each time the lion king was out to hunt a gazzele janez would say "maybe this time the gazelle will hunt the lion". All animals there laughed a lot with this, even if some hiennas would laugh sarcastically and with wishfull thinking. At those times tarzoc would shout to putt things in order, he would say some vagarously stuff just to point out he was the ruller of that jungle and that janez was his companion. Cheta-pv on those ocasions became realy excited and jumpy and would say over and over again to all animals that this lion was pretensious and arrogant and that the gorila soon will make misery of the lion's life. But cheta-pv even in his monkie knowledge believe in this lesser and lesser, So he just dream with a distant era, a strong era, when a dinossaur rule the earth...

I agree Nick. Novak is a good player, and any top 20 opponent is going to be dangerous. However, I'm not sure why Djokovic should be any more so to Fed than other people --- after all, it's not like they haven't played before.

If Federer doesn't get off to a bad start, I hope Novak takes an injury timeout ... that's sure to get Roger going again! roflmao

Good lord. I meant if he *does* get off to a bad start. :doh:

Freudian slip?

Although, if Fed *doesn't* get off to a bad start, Novak may be more likely to take an injury timeout ... ;)

"Federer's main strength will be his physical preparation. I m sure he will make djoko run from R to L and L to R which should at the end tire the youngster.
What's your take on this one?"
:wacko:

Federer's main strength is allways his better tecnics, bigger confidence and better all around game :doh:

And in reality allmost anything can happen but there are some things harder than others.
And to beat federer in a GSlam in five sets in the hardest thing in tennis. So tomorow for Djoko to win three things would have to happen: federer to have an off day, djoko to play the game of his life or Federer to pull out because of injurie. And the first two would have to happen simultaneously :tsk:

Anyway this remember me the following story:

Once upon time in a jungle tarzoc was the ruller and he lives there with janez and sometimes cheta-pv would come for some monkie stuff. But the life there became dull and sad, so they use to go to a savanna near them to watch the other animals.
janez liked a lot the lion king but sudenly he needed to make things exciting so each time the lion king was out to hunt a gazzele janez would say "maybe this time the gazelle will hunt the lion". All animals there laughed a lot with this, even if some hiennas would laugh sarcastically and with wishfull thinking. At those times tarzoc would shout to putt things in order, he would say some vagarously stuff just to point out he was the ruller of that jungle and that janez was his companion. Cheta-pv on those ocasions became realy excited and jumpy and would say over and over again to all animals that this lion was pretensious and arrogant and that the gorila soon will make misery of the lion's life. But cheta-pv even in his monkie knowledge believe in this lesser and lesser, So he just dream with a distant era, a strong era, when a dinossaur rule the earth...

P.S. I am putting this again as a protest against who behave as a dictator and that thinks is entitled to censur me. I wasn't offensive to someone i just use some humour to represent methaforicaly my ideas. Maybe someone didn't think that was well represented on it, maybe is so but only if he thinks that the all thing has some truth on it. I believe it was funny and that the people on the forum should have the opportunity to decide by themselves. I laughed a lot...

:rolleyes: Actually, the evil dictator thought he had already cleared that earlier message, but he must have clicked the wrong button.

I didn't find it particularly offensive. (Of course, I didn't find it that funny, either, but it may have just been something lost in the translation. :shrug: )

I'll ignore the monkey-business and reply to some serious points.

You are right. However, I believe if *anyone* in tennis is having a real off day, they can be beaten by basically anyone in the top 20, even Roger.

So why is it so hard to beat Roger (particularly in a best-of-five)? Why does he seem to have so few real off days?

I believe --- and I don't think I'm alone in this --- that the answer is in his variety. There are days (particularly early in tournaments) when some part of his game isn't working that well. But he has many ways to win, not just one. And when he gets into the groove again, other things can fall into place as well.

I think Toronto was a case study in this. I seem to remember he was actually serve-volleying quite a bit in some of the matches. :wacko:

When Nadal doesn't find his usual depth and accuracy on his heavy spin groundstrokes, he becomes beatable, even on clay I reckon. When Roddick's serve isn't on, he's basically f*cked. Fed can have an off day in part of his game, and still find a way to win in the end against most players, by using some of his other weapons. :bow:

All hail the evil dictator!

:bow: :bow: :bow:

(and his dolly bird)

Njole will annihilate Udomchoke without dropping a set, and then of course everyone will think he's going to cause a shock. He isn't. For him to give Federer a nice, close match would be an achievement, since he's yet to have a 'big' win in his career.

Good post MJT! :ok:

I would also add to your post the fact that Roger is difficult to beat due to his technical ability.. it ties in slightly to your thoughts about variety, in some ways, as it means that his shots are less likely to break down under pressure. I would include in that his service action hardly ever breaks down.. his ace to double fault ratio for last year was something like 10 to 1! :bow:

Thanks Greasepipe. I posted this mainly to be reinsured about Fed's fate ;) but still I have my doubts. I agree though that over 5 sets Federer shoudl make it.

You right Nick Cica, he hasn't done much so far but he is young and at this age they progress very quickly.

I did not wait until Nadal won his 1st FO to realise he was going to be Fed's greater opponent. In fact I realised that end of 2004 and at the Jan 2005 AO when he could have beaten Hewitt on his home soil at only 18.

Djoko is extremely consistant like Nadal but hits harder. So yes I agree the harder balls will help Fed as opposed to the spiny ones from Nadal but it is not going to be a cake walk....I hope I am wrong though.....let's be clear on that.

MJT and Petalp -I cannot disagree either with what you say but at this age 19/20 players evolves very quickly and Fed once said (I believe it was about Bagdhatis or Nadal), "you play those guys once, 6 months later they are very different, they progress physicallly and therefore become suddenly very dangerous. A bit what happened to Nadal and Bagdhatis last year. Regarding Fed being more technically complete, it is true but has that helped him against Nadal? or Safin when it mattered? no.

If Djoko can generate enough pace to "break" Fed's technicallity, not much Fed will be able to do, will he?. (I am sure however Fed will be able handle Djoko's pace for now but this is just to argue my point and concern).

Well, Nadal's technique posed a very particular problem to Fed (the high bounce on the backhand), which means his game matches up well with Fed, particularly on clay. And of course a good player can pull off a win, given the right circumstances, although I'd say Fed has moved up and further from the loss to Safin. Still, against the very best players on a good day, only Fed's A game will really suffice. I'm just not sure Djokovic really belongs in that category, at least yet.

I just tuned in to the end of the third set Djokovic v Udomchoke. Djokovic failed to serve it out, and ended up losing it 5-7. He hits the ball pretty good and hard, but so do other players. Of course, I haven't seen too many matches of his, and I shouldn't judge him on a few games. I just tend to think that both Murray and Gasquet (who still is sometimes overhyped) have more in their game than him, in the long run. Maybe Baghdatis too.

Of course, I'm always ready to be proved wrong. Anyway, I really ought to sleep.

Djokovic has yet to play anyone outside the top 43 this year, by the way!

After seeing Fed play today I am definitely predicting a straight sets victory :)

I meant to post last night that I wouldn't be surprised if Youzhny took more games off Federer than Djokovic, and I think that's still very much possible.

Last year, Novak actually beat only two top-ten opponents: Robredo at Wimbledon and Gonzo at RG. Yes, these young guys can improve quickly, but I haven't seen any evidence that that has happened yet.

I see Fed storming through the first set, with a bagel or breadstick not to be excluded. If Djokovic wins a set, it'll be the third.

Let's hope I haven't jinxed Roger now ...

It will take more than a guy on message board to make Rog lose ;)

But you forget that I have jedi powers, Ace. :o ;)

Well, this problem occured against Nalby at the YEC 2006. The first set it was Nalby who dominated the match because he produced a incredible pace. And yes, the Fedster was in deep sh!t, until he made a few tactical changes and 60 minutes later it was GSM for Fed. Plain and simple.

To me the only scenario imaginable with Roger to lose;
his serve fails big time (like in cincy against Murray)

Looking at his service stats today (avg. serve speed 11 k/ph faster than the previous rounds!?) i'm pretty confident he'll win.

Otoh; i'm aware of the fact sooner or later we'll have to adjust our expectations concerning Federer

I think you meant that he has yet to play anyone inside the Top 43. :)

Everyone's downplaying Djokovic a bit too much for my liking. You can quote the statistics about the ranking of players he's beaten, but you can only beat the players drawn to play you. Djokovic is the youngest out of the Baghdatis/Berdych/Gasquet/Murray/Monfils new wave, yet has risen incredibly quickly up the rankings, and without the benefit of wildcards (unlike Murray and Monfils to name but two). He's won, whats it 2, 3 titles already now? And lost only 1 final? He clearly has the winners mentality. He is going places.

Last year, he played some of the best tennis at French Open (was unlucky with injury against Nadal), and pushed accomplished grass-courter Ancic. OK, he played poor against Hewitt, but generally he's been the most consistent out of all the younger players. I've seen his tennis against Udomchoke, and he's bringing some more variety to his game - dropshots, serve-volley, as well as his stellar groundstroke game. He reminds me of a cross between Safin, and early Ferrero (especially on that forehand).

I don't think he'll beat Federer tomorrow, but he'll really make him work for the victory, and push him. And, unlike some players, he is a threat on every surface.

Compared to that "peer group" he hasn't risen up the rankings incredible quickly. Nadal was a bit faster than the others (though I know you didn't include him in your scope of the "wave"), Murray and Berdych rose up the rankings at a similar pace. Gasquet and Monfils have been a bit slower. I think Djokovic's progress has been pretty similar to the others. Maybe incredibly fast compared to the average tour player, but not compared to other top young prospects.

But then, you say "Everyone's downplaying Djokovic . . .", which I don't think is so, either. Most don't expect him to beat Federer here, but still recognise him as a top-notch player.

It should be an interesting matchup . Looking forward to it. :)

Well yes Nadal is a special case in the sense that he developped first his body at the expense of his shots. Not that it was a choice of his as had he been able to hit winners more easily, he would certainly not have developed this retrieving machine that his body is.

Regarding the other players, let's not forget that Gasquet was by far the most successful at the youngest age. Most junior slams won, Reaching MC second round at 15, getting the number one Safin to a tie break abd reaching number 12 at 19 after beating Federer and close of beating Nadal on clay in the same tourny if it was not for the fact that he had played 17 matches in the last 21 days. If it was not for an elbow injury, he would probably be already in the top 10 where it seems he will be heading comfortably in the next 3 months.

He is, in my view the most talented, but I agree that there is a big question mark about his athletism as he looked knacked and even injured in the last set today against Monfils.

To be continued....