In wake of reading that he has a groin injury....ALREADY,only after playing 1 tornament.I have reason to believe that due to his now more than ever obvious decline he is trying to hard to push himself to do what his game doesnt allow.This is a serious mental thing and its worrying as we will have no challenges for Federer.

Nadals projected claycourt path is going just like all the others before him as I have pointed out months ago on BBC.Why is he adamant that playing more matches improves tennis.His game isnt made for that.

Views anyone?

Yes Darky, many had predicted that decline sooner or later due to Nadal's demanding game style. I was hoping there would still be a year or 2 in him. It must be a difficult time for him knowing he will have to cut matches in order to manage some success.

I have mentioned many a time that this era is by far the more physically demanding for all players and a loss of half a step - which in itself is not obvious in the naked eye - has a dramatic repercussion on winning or losing a match. We saw last week Murray v Davydenko and Nadal v Malisse but in fairness saw that both losers in those matches were actually injured?

Its really sad but it was inevitable.A really good claycourter has at most a 3 year stayimg ability.Look at them all.Coria,Moya,Gustavo,Muster.And he talks so much of improving and yet he will injure himself so much if he tries to make drastic changes to quick.

I hope he plays in Oz....

Yep - You can add JCF to this list.

Yep and him.JCF,Moya and Nadal all have immensley similar patterns.

JCF-Twice French Open Finalist,winner once,runner up at the US Open,Won Monte Carlo and Rome

Moya-French Open Winner,Winner of Monte Carlo and Rome.Runner Up at Aussie Open

Nadal-Twice French Open Finalist,winner twice.Won Monte Carlo and Rome,runner Up at Wimbledon.

All after 3 years started their decline with injury.Its a bit unfair for JCF,coz chicken pox isnt his fault!But all in all they are the same!

Really sad!

To be fair, Moya has not a typical clay court game. He is more of a shot maker I would think, but yes clay was where he achieved most.

I don't think we should send him to the claycourters retirement village just yet. I remember thinking when Rafa got injured at Queen's that he was screwed and was paying for playing so many tournies in the clay court season, but he came back and got to the final on Wimbledon.

I do think he may have made a mistake in playing so many matches early on in the season (he played doubles at Chennai as well as singles) but I wouldn't be surprised if he managed a good run at the Aussie Open despite this injury. (watch him pull out of the Aussie Open now and prove me wrong..... :unsure: )

To be realistically fair,he groomed Nadal and clay was where it happend.So Moya is a clay court specialist.He did achieve all round though!

Nadal plays more matches as he knows he cant win them all. He needs lot of points to stay at No#2 and maybe he believes the only way to get that (points) is to play more. Like you said Dark, he is not thinking long term but maybe is after the short term success. Maybe he wants to make the most of his fame and turn it to fortune. Its a shame really, when we al thought that he is the one who can give Fed a run for his money.

Very very interesting point.I never looked at it like that because we all deemed Davydonkey and Ivan as workhorses and there in the back is Nadal playing so much to hang onto his number 2.I think we were all blinded by his success he achieved early on that we ruled it out as a possibility!

Hi all,

Even if I share part of your views I have to say that I am not so worry about Nadal's injuries: On that side I continue to believe he can stay there and be a threat to anyone (FED included) on clay in particular (but not only). B)

The very worry part is more about his objectives and his motivations. I mean in a very recent interview he pointed out the following:

"I don't think I can challenge Roger at the moment," the 20-year-old Spaniard said.

"Roger is the best by far. He is at another level.

"Just look at the numbers, Roger's are so impressive and it's just unbelievable."

Details HERE

This is really scarry: This guy is a real big warrior out there and this kind of sentences well these are not good news. :wacko: ( Ok they show as well that FED is definitely becoming an Icon for their pairs and this is just amazing and rare :yikes: )

In the last couple of years, some of the best matches have been between Nadal and FED: But Rafa needs to be the real one the fighter the " I always believe I can win" guy...Come on Rafa...We want FED with a Grand Slam :pray: but after beating on clay a 100% RAFA Warrior :rolleyes:

TV, what do you make of his constant injuries?You can see what his type of tennis is doing to his body and yet you say you are not too worried!

I feel Nadal has taken a gamble in January on trying to pull back as many ranking points as possible on Federer while he has nothing to defend - if he ends up out of the Aussie Open then it's backfired spectacularly, and he'll have little scope for getting within striking distance of #1 until the autumn at the earliest - barring an unlikely (no matter how much Wise and co wish it) collapse from Federer of course.

Of course, even more disastrous would be an injury in the heat of the clay court season. Unlike Federer whose points are fairly well spread throughout the year, Nadal has a lot of his major points concentrated in that particular part of the season.

Dark I am not to worry because I still believe in his team and in his ability of changing a bit his game...But might be I am wrong..Let's see what will be the outcome during this first part of the season, i.e. until the clay season will start. :rolleyes:

Good point TV. I also feel motivation is key and one reason I believe one-dimensional players tend to tire quicker than others is maybe mentally as much as physically. To have to run after balls all day and put them back in the court will surely get on you at some stage. Borg, Wilander for instance lost interest pretty soon despite being fit and injury free. While guys like McEnroe or Agassi could go on for ever as they enjoyed the game and more importantly, their own game which they saw as an instrument to work, create and improve all the time. The excitement Nadal had about retrieving all the shots is surely going to get to him at some stage, especially if suddenly he realises power players can win points pretty easily in comparison without having to sweat every single one out as he does (i know he has always been aware of that but come a time when you start losing, things like that gets amplified). Another negative point for Nadal is that though he may start to put more power on his shots by hitting flatter, he will realise that many out there are better at it than him as they adopted that strategy at an earlier age. Besides That would strip nadal of his main weapon: the demoralising thought that to beat him, one has to play the perfect game.

So not all rosy for nadal right now, yet I expect to bounce back at this AO and at 10/1 is definetly a good bet.

I would not be surprised if an early withdrawal at Sydney was on the cards anyway. Sydney is quite an important tournament and not having fed was already a drawback, having Nadal committed would guarantee a minimum glory for the organisers and minimum revenue from advanced bookings and TV rights. Had Nadal won Chennai, I am pretty sure he would have withdrawn anyway from Sydney.

hmm, like TV said; don't worry about his injury. I think he will be physically fit next week. At this stage he lacks confidence big time.
Have you seen the match stats?
Guccione; 9 aces, won 100 % (!) 1st serves and Nadal no changes for a break.
Guccione was looking very good to win this match. And the last thing Raffa needs is another loss, specially against a WC.
Don't get me wrong, Raffa is no quitter, but he's totally out of balance. He will be back though.

Dyou know what I think? I think Nadal needs a nice big morale-building win to get his spirits up. His end of 2006 was so dissapointing and we shouldn't underrestimate the mental impact of his loss to Federer in Shanghai.
But TV, I'd like to say this kind of "scary talk" might just be Nadal being humble. I had a look at a few BBC articles about him from last year. Particularly the ones reporting about tournament wins.

Here are some quotes:

This was just after winning after winning in Dubai against Fed! http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/tennis/4774728.stm

This was after passing Borgs mark for all time consecutive wins, putting him in second place of that statistic. http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/tennis/4960758.stm

This is just after beating him in the French Open for crying out loud. http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/tennis/5059176.stm

My conclusion would have to be that Nadal looks up to big players (like Roger and Björn) even when everything is going his way. He'll praise Roger like mad even after beating him. The guy is just very modest. I'm not that worried about his psyche. But like you said Dark, his health is a bit of a worry. But let's not forget that this time one year ago he was recovering from a foot injury and it looked like his career might be in jeopardy.

Huegi

I am worried about his schedule. Even for one as physically fit as him, putting the strain of 2 tournaments preceding the Open (one with doubles) is not that sensible.

I hope he can last.

If the writing is on the wall for Nadal, (and it's early days yet, but hey these boards are all about wild speculation anyway) i'm wondering who else is going to be a serious challenge to Fed. Fed COULD dominate 2007 like no male in history, i mean look what would have happened last year without Nadal, apart from one loss to murrey, just about a perfect year.
I'm struggling to think of a challenger, the obvious ones Roddick, Hewitt? ...Murrey, Guasquet is talented no doubt, but isn't there yet....blimey i'm talking myself into thinking get well soon Nadal!

The difference here though is that he didnt play at all in the beginning of the year until Dubai so he seems to have added more matches and got injured in the process and still wants to compete at the Aussie Open so realistically theres no prpoer time to rest unless he just stays out until the clay but the risk will be match practice.

No offence TV,but you faith in his ability to change that game of his is yours!I feel its a bit late for him to amount that big a change and like someone else posted on here,players that have had that flat harder approach all along will just maul him and that would be damaging to his mind and game!

I pretty much completely agree with you, Jo. I think (and hope) that Rafa was being cautious in pulling out, so that he wouldn't risk his AO chances.

Also regarding the claims that Nadal is just a claycourter, it is good to remember that in his recent interview Roger denied this, and also said he thought Nadal would be a top player for a long time yet. I think Federer knows a thing or two about tennis, so it might be worth at least taking this into consideration before being so sure to write off Nadal ...

I will agree with this to some extent.Federer and Nadal are also friends so their coutesies to one another is also a tad bit obvious.I mean on the one end you have Nadal praising Federer to no end and then you have Federer now patting Nadal on his back.

I speak purely from a objective point of view and as a follower of tennis for years.Patterns over the years have very seldom changed and this hold especially true with players who have only managed Major Success on clay and at the French!I havent written him off yet but until all evidence points to the contrary I will believe he is on a claycourters path in one direction!

I thought I would bump this up again after his loss in Dubai.

What are the views now?Lets be objective.I dont want to hear about us witing for the claycourt season and yada yada yada.Is he going down or what?

Nadal is getting worse on the hard courts. I definately think taht the Nadal of 2005 wouldn't have lost to the likes of Malisse for example. Yesterday's defeat is no surprise. We now expect players like Blake, Berdych and Youzhny to beat him every time they play. As long of these sort of players of playing well, Nadal is at their mercy. His hard court prospects don't look good. He his no longer a contender for the major hard court titles.
Clay is a different kettle of fish though. We simply don't know how his slump will effect his form on the red dirt until how we see how he shapes up in Monte-Carlo. But until then it would be foolish to consider him as anything other than the undisputed clay court king and favourite for Roland Garros. The claycourt season could provide him with the solitude that he needs from his poor form (a bit like Sampras from 1998-2000 when he was struggling more and more at the other three grand slams but instantly hit it off on arriving at his beloved Wimbledon). Being back on his favourite surface where he rules supreme could give him the lift that he needs. As I said, we'll have to wait until Monte-Carlo.

Until Monte Carlo,he is however going to be losing points.Big Masters Series events coming up on yes,his favourite surface,Hard!

Yep I would be very surprised if he is able to defend his sem-final points from Indian Wells last year. On the plus side for him, he was knocked out of the first hurdle of Miami last year and only has 5 points to defend, so he should be able to make some gains there.

Thats actually great fortune for him!It will be interesting though if he make the quarters of both which will put him on even footing and since he can only make quarters these days its not a far fetched goal!

You're right. Reaching the quarters is pretty much a realistic target for him at the minute. Miami reportedly has the slowest hard courts on the circuit, so if he can't perform well there his prospects away from clay will look even more bleak than they already are.

Perhaps we're sad that Nadal hasn't lived up to expectations but what I'm really looking forward to seeing is whether Mr Gonzo can continue his improvement. To my eye, he plays a far more attractive style of tennis than Nadal and if it is his turn to climb to the near the top of the tree, I don't think the game is any worse off. In fact, I think the offensive all court style that he is trying to perfect is just what the game needs more of.

Miami slow!Thats new to me,but if it is the case and he doesnt perform there then it will be a foregone conclusion!

Then we will see how it affects his clay season!

Miami is generally thought to take top spin better. I'm not it's appreciably slower than Indian Wells though

Darki AA is saying the "slowest hard court" of the season and I fully back his statement ;) : Moreover, we need to stress that the conditions at Miami are quite often really in favour of "slow-clay court players", i.e. very humid which implies even more "slowness"...To be honest I was surprise of Rafa's records last year: He did better at the Pacific than in Miami. I definitely believe this year should be just the contrary...But we will see. In any case I really believe Rafa will not be at the top in both events: I am quite sure that the last performances low a bit his "fight" spirit... :rolleyes:

Im well aware of what he means my friend,I just never knew that it was a slow hardcourt.

Darki :) I know that you know that we know that you know that we know... ;) ...that we can not :yikes: rally properly in a slow court ;)

BTW: Darki (my friend) have a nice week end...I will be out soon and I will not be able to follow FED live :(2 ..In any case the next three weeks are likely to be very interesting...So be ready :ok:

Ciao :D

I'm not sure about the speed at Indian Wells. I've always though of it as a medium paced hard court, slower than the US Open and US open series tournaments, but faster than the Australian Open and Miami.
The conditions at Indian Wells, with the wind and desert air, make it pretty tough. It if there is a clear sky and it is sunny, the court plays faster, and if it is overcast and windy, it plays more slowly. I do think that Nadal is going to have a hard job trying to defend his 225 points there.

Well,we have the luxury of them showing us both the semi finals and the final live here in SA,so I will be watching him live for you!

The next few weeks are going to be so much fun I cant wait.And we are all talking about Nadal defending his points,but we have forgotten that Federer has a shitload to defend in the next month.So Im really looking forward to it!