I thought it might make a little more interesting distribution, if everyone gets a chance to pick their Top 2 most likely winners. Lots of choices. I've included all of the Top 15, plus a couple other selected names.

I think this one is probably Federer's to lose really. The other choice is quite difficult - i was torn between Roddick and Blake. i think Roddick may be gaining in confidence, especially after getting so close to beating fed in Shanghai, and I guess he'll be hoping to capitalise on the good back-end of last season. Blake's another one who has done really really well in the last year and as much as he still seems to have some sort of mental block about beating Federer, he's still managed to beat Nadal and also got to the final of Shanghai. I went for Blake, simply because I hope that gave him the confidence to really shine this year!

I only voted 1 by accident :unsure:

However I agree it's Federer's to lose, especially with the faster courts. Especially having rested, trained and giving himself a light warmup at Kooyong.

Nadal is in a 'slump' relatively speaking and is tiring out himself with 2 weeks of warmup. Even if he does make it to the final Federer is in superlative form and took the last hardcourt match in straight sets.

Other than Nadal everyone say's Safin is the only one who can beat Federer at his best. Maybe in 05, but I think if they faced each other now, Federer would win, even at Safin's best. The H2H is fairly lopsided anyways.

Roddick is improving vastly but can't see him winning a 5 setter with increased pressure and heat.

Can't think of any other real threats.

I would love to be able to say that Safin could win it, or even just get to the final, but I'm just not sure that mentally he would be able to do it. He may surprise us all (and himself I suspect) but I could see him beating someone high in the rankings and then losing in the next round to someone ranked 100 places below him or something :(

I think Nadal will reach the final and might even win it. He is Federer biggest threat still and over 5 sets he is a real contender.

I picked Hewitt, I just see someone different winning it this year

I want to win: Roddick and Blake in the final would be great, with Blake winning

Who will win: Murray of course :P

I went with Roger - I'd rather see Gasquet, Safin or Davydenko win, but as Jo so rightly put it it's Federer's to lose. Still I'd rather Fed won it than Nadal, Roddick or Hewitt - bleh!

After a bit of thought I put Federer 1 and Nadal 2 . I agree he's still a big rival even though others have beaten him lately . Over five sets though, he's hard to beat, and his game matches up well against Federers. The faster court will suit Roger though :bow: and as always I bear in mind Commandment no.9 (Never doubt thy Fed ) :)

fed.

Well said, Brother Al. :)

i hope federer wins.. but if he doesnt then i would like blake 2 take it.

should be a good tournament.. i wonder how far rafa will get? some are predicting him 2 win but i think its unlikely. still... u never know.

Now that it's been suggested the surface is no faster than usual, I really can't see Roddick doing anything worthwhile, he's got a pretty woeful record in Melbourne. Blake's got no chance simply because he'll choke if he gets close, same goes for Nalbandian. I actually see Davydenko having a good run here :yikes: and Nadal, if he can shake off his dodgy form, should do well due to the slower surface. If he can get through the first few rounds he'd gain some confidence and would be difficult to beat. Safin I guess has a chance, but that's all I'm gonna say about him.

Of the youngsters, I fancy Djokovic to have the best run. Those bigging up Murray are gonna be in for a disappointment, over 5 sets in searing heat he'll struggle to even reach the 4th round, especially if he has a tough draw. I'd like to think Gasquet could do well, but he probably won't - one Slam, he's gonna suddenly come into his own, but sadly not this one. Berdych will most likely have his customary 4th round exit.

Not too much to disagree with there Wise :ok: , although Nadal and Davydenko have possible injuries to worry about as well as Nadal's form and I think (hope) that Blake or Roddick may do better than you think.

I would v. much like to see Nadal get into form/shape and feature.

No mention of the 10,000lb gorilla in the corner of the room from you though... :D

Hi all, well let me comment Wise really interesting post

Not so sure: I definitely believe he can reach at least the quarter and be there is already a very good result ;) .

From my perspective Blake has definitely more chances than Nalbi: I like his Tennis and if he will "choke" he will do that only against the maestro (i.e. FED :) )..Let's hope for a good run.

I do not see Daydenko when at the contrary I really hope to see Rafa fit and ready for the battle; he can definitely do a great result (even win :yikes: ...a 5 sets final aginst FED...Yesssss :P )

agree

Agree Murray is not yet ready for a GS format event. Djoko seems to be more dangerous on that side ;) .

I really like Gasquet's Tennis (one of the main reason being that his Tennis is so "easy", I mean it is really similar to the great Maestro :bow: one) and I really hope he will reach at least the quarter. BTW: Bagda needs to be considered.

agree

I will end by adding simply the following questions to Wise: Where is FED :yikes: in your analysis? Is he one of among the favourites or not (be honest :whistle: please)?

Sometimes I have the feeling that you have some problem even writing down his name roflmao ...Wise do not exaggerate: Come on!!! :rolleyes:

Hi TV - first things first, it's difficult to make these comments without seeing the draw, I might change my mind on my statements after we see everyone's potential opponents, although I doubt it.

Roddick - yep, QF is possible, but given his form do you really think he'd be happy with that? I think a 4th round/QF exit is likely, because of the slow surface, but he does have the potential to go further.

Blake - Could and should do better than Roddick. Probably won't, but one thing's for sure, no matter how far he goes, he will NOT win it. He's just not got it mentally.

Davydenko + Nadal - If both fully fit, should provide Federer's main opposition. I'd have backed Rafa to beat Fed here a few months ago, but he seems to be in a bit of a crisis right now. Davydenko's going up in my estimation all the time, I just wonder if he's got the mental strength to beat Federer (remember last year?)

Baghdatis - Yep I forgot about him. I've got a feeling he'll have a disappointing early defeat after his heroics last year, unfortunately.

Gasquet - I don't think he'll even reach the QF although I'd love him to.

Federer - Favourite but prone to an upset. Unconvincing for me last year.

Agree with you on everything else ;)2

I am on the same side as MrI regarding Bagdhatis. I find his results quite disappointing. He surfed the wave a year ago and had a good Wimbledon but he has been so inconsistent in between. If I remember, he had an easy draw at Wimbledon until he met Nadal.

His losing to Moya this am is another strange result. He was serving at 5/3 in the third I believe. The pressure of having so many points to defend in 2 weeks will not play in his favour either.

I picked nadal i really think he could win this slam at the start of this year. :D

I suppose if winning isn't enough to convince you, nothing ever will be!!! ;)2

I agree with you on most of the others. I'd obviously like to see Safin go far again, but i think it depends which Safin turns up! Glad to see he's seeded though, he's done well in the last year, and I really hope he can have a good run here!!! :pray:

I'll be interested to see what Roddick's loss to Federer in Shanghai did to Roddick's mental state. He'll either have gained confidence from having got to close, or he'll be slightly shattered by the fact that despite that, he lost....again.

Davydenko may not even be in this tournie - i've not heard the latest on his suspected stress fracture, but it doesn't seem good for him! As for Nadal, again, he doesn't appear to be fully fit, but i'd hope he can go far. However, considering his little "slump" at the moment I wouldn't be surprised to see a slightly earlier exit than expected for him.

I'd like to see Baghdatis do well, and he may happily rise to the occasion, but i would agree with you Wise, that we may see an early exit!

Hi Wise

Clearly I share your view on this :ok: :

When the draw will be available? Tomorrow Right? Might be already in the morning (GMT Time) ... Let's hope: a full day of discussion :pray:

Come on man you cannot use last year FED performance as a reference: He was not at his top. Honestly, given the Tennis he was able to produce at the Master, I am expecting from him either a 2004 or a 2005 type of event, i.e. he should be able to move quite "easily" (it is difficult to know given that there are a lot of good players out there :whistle: ...a quite "strong era" roflmao ...)until the quarter (semi).Then it will become difficult even for him...

:yikes: But please do not use FED's last year performance as a benchmark: He was definitely not well prepare.

Finally, I am really concern about the motivation of Nadal: I really hope he will be ready...But the last signals were quite bad

It's not just last year TV - other than the French, the Australian Open has been the least fruitful Slam for the Swiss. Let's face it, he's probably going to win, but I don't see any difference between his preparation this season and last season. Only an on form Nadal has a really good chance of beating him, although there are a lot of players who have the potential to.

Regarding Nadal and Davydenko, we'll just have to wait and see the extent of their injuries and the impact of them performance wise. It'd be a shame if two of the players most likely to give Fed difficulty were well below 100% :whistle:

I don't think Roddick will be affected adversely by his choking against Federer in Shanghai, Connors simply won't have allowed him to. His loss to Nalbandian at the Masters was most likely a direct consequence of this setback, but he's had a while to get over it. Having said that, the absence of his coach in Melbourne could well contribute to his downfall. I still say Roddick's just not that great on this surface, which is the main reason why I don't tip him to do so well.

I don't accept that Safin did well last year, although I see the point. Someone with his talent should be at the highest echelons of the game, but given his almost comical mentality, it was quite impressive that he dug in and improved his ranking. It's basically impossible to analyse his chances, but this does seem to be his favourite Slam. He could win it; he could also crash out to a koala bear in the first round.

Oh bummer, I only chose 1. I chose Blake and should also have chosen Federer.

I would love Murray to win of course and feeling confident he is going to have a good run and some big wins would be such a boost...then who could be riding a wave this year. :D

Of course would have chosen Nadal, but with the injury scare and possible lack of motivation right now, I have discounted him, but don't mind being proven wrong. :D

:blink:

He was coming off an injury last season, and I believe may have still been wearing an ankle brace. That's a difference in his preparation, in my mind.

Wise I disagree about the following two points:

(*) Man come on: Last year FED did not have his usual 100% footwork and court coverage, this because he was still carried some of the consequences of his serious injury before the 2005 master (man you know better than me that he decided to participate to the the 2005 master just at the last minute). This year it is totally different: He did not have any serious injury, he finished the year on great notes (the semi and the final at the 2005 YEC were among the best matches of the year) and he took a long break (i.e. he should be even more "fresh")... :P Come on everything is different for FED compare to last year.

(**) "although there are a lot of players who have the potential to"...During a GS event :yikes: ? On a five sets match :yikes: ? Come on Wise a lot of players have the potential to beat him...Where are they :yikes: !!!!

Man you cannot be serious.

If you are honest with yourself in a 5 set match nowadays there are few players who can beat him IMO...

You surely cant be far of the mark if you choose Fed eh Mo? ;) But I would love to see Blake have a good run here, and Andy too.

Would have been even happier to see Tim make an appearance :angry:

Anyone reckon Roddick wil suffer for Connors not being there?

TV, the notion that Federer was seriously injured this time last year is a complete myth. So badly injured that he double bagelled Gaudio in the Masters Cup semi-final, and served for the match against Nalbandian in the final?

At the start of the 2006 season he WON Doha without dropping a set and played 3 matches at Kooyong, so forgive me for completely dismissing the 'preparation' excuse.

Nadal, Davydenko, Roddick, Nalbandian, Safin, Gasquet, Berdych and Djokovic are the main players who could beat Federer should he perform like he did last year. Whether they will or not remains another question.

Here's to giving a more precise evaluation when the draw is released tomorrow (I think?)

Federer wasn't seriously injured this time last year but he was seriously injured in October 2005 and spent three weeks in plaster. I don't think he looked like the "old Fed" until he played Gasquet in Indian Wells, and it was only then that he took to the court without that black ankle support. He won the AO but apart from a couple of sets against Haas, there were very few times when he looked particularly comfortable and his timing seemed off. If you don't believe me, compare the AO and US Open matches with against Davydenko. Chalk and cheese.

:ok:
Totally agreed Nick. To know this specific what the "turning point" in 2006 was, you really have been watching a lot of tennis in 2006.
I remember i was thinking during that match he finally played as well like he did at Wimibledon'05.

Federer of course is the fave to win (even though I don't like him) :angry:

I hope Nadal can win though, so he can shake off being a "clay court player" (If he doesn't no worries), I just hope another player wins otherwise it's going to get boring :whistle:

With regards of Roddick, I think with Connors not around he may suffer, BTW sorry to hear of Connnors mum's passing :(

Anyway: Fed to win or Nadal
But would like another player to win, just to keep tennis more interesting :pray:

Really?!?

I never would have guessed roflmao

Yes I think he will, especially in the latter stages (assuming he gets there); hopefully his form won't dissolve or anything like that though :rolleyes:

I think the draws out in half an hour or something :D

:coffee:

Hi Wise...Thanks for posting the AO drawn BTW...Anyway, back to this discussion. You posted:

Look it is a pure question of point of view: you saw a "mith" when I saw more the proof that this guy is able to provide decent (and even great) performances even when he is not fit 100% ( and at the beginning of 2006 he was not at his top in terms of his footwork and court coverage).

But, in some sense, it is not so important :) : at the end even if he was not playing his best tennis he was able to win the AO and this, I guess, was really what matter for him (as well for us)...

With all of that said his last year AO victory was not obtained presenting his best Tennis (BTW: FED pointed out this fact in a recent interview. There he said that one of his 2006's AO objective was to present his best Tennis during the event: We will see..I, I really hope to see the 2004 FED :P ).

Finally let me add some further questions: If FED at the 2006 AO was not presenting his best Tennis, we agree on that, when was he able to present it?

IMO it was in particular during the last part of his season, i.e. after his USO title (already the final match at USO was quite impressive BTW*).

In other terms, the best was reached during the indoor season: his victories in Madrid/Basel and Shanghai were just awesome...So, once again, his 2007 starting conditions are very different from the 2006...Which leads me to believe that, as far I can see, the current AO event is likely to be more similar to the 2004/5 campaign than the 2006...But OK looking at the drawn I very happy to see the presence of Mikhail Youzhny quite quickly : This guy can be very dangerous as well as Djoko (but even more Gasquet if he will be able to eleiminate Djoko)...Anyway a very interesting AO :rolleyes:

5 cents opinion as usual.

*Wimbledon performance was awesome..But Ok I know you do not agree on that one :whistle:

Guess what?I want Fed to win!He has got a tough draw though so it'll be anything but a stroll in the park.Have put Roddick as my second choice as he beat Fed recently.

Whilst I hadn't forgotten that Federer was my first choice to win, what I had completely forgotten about (until today!) was that in this poll I had put Gonzo as my second choice! :yahoo:

If only I'd had the courage of my convictions and made a little bet at the a bookies at the time :doh:

Ah well, interesting to view these predictions in retrospect. Whilst my guess was a little flukey, most people weren't far off the mark with their predictions.. :ok: