Here's how I see things...

WARM FAVOURITE:

FEDERER.
Why: won 3 out of 4 slams last year, only lost to 2 players all year last year, and likely to be in better physical condition for Australian Open than last year.
Why not: Can be vulnerable to the higher bounce of the courts, not as dominant at Aus Open as he is at Wimbledon and Flushing Meadow.

MrInvisible verdict: Wins title more comfortably than last year

MOST LIKELY NEARLY MEN:

RODDICK.
Why: Connors has restored his confidence. Has performed well against Federer on last 2 occasions. Serve should be in good nick.
Why not: Can break down in rallies on the surface. V bad head-to-head record against Federer.
MrInvisible verdict: Semi-final or final.

BAGHDATIS.
Why: Huge crowd support. V difficult to beat when he's on a roll. Likes the night matches, and good record in long 5 setters.
Why not: Poor recent form, lack of consistency - might find it difficult to repeat last year's feat.
MrInvisible verdict: quarter-final

SAFIN.
Why: Performs brilliantly on the surface, good record at Aus Open, excellent record in 5 set matches. Can compete with Federer on the surface.
Why not: Lack of slam success since 2005 Aus Open. Recurring injury niggles.
MrInvisible verdict: quarter-final

NADAL.
Why: Slower, high bouncing conditions should suit his game. Not too much pressure on him at Aus Open, winning head-to-head over Federer.
Why not: Poor record against power players, Federer has beaten him last 2 times, comparative poor form during 2nd half of 2006.
MrInvisible verdict: semi-final

NALBANDIAN
Why: One of most talented players on his day - reached semi-final last year.
Why not: Knee injury worries, doesn't win too many semi-finals.
MrInvisible verdict: 3rd round - our early partly due to injury.

DARK HORSES

HEWITT
Why: Still a v good big match player, home crowd on his side more than in the past.
Why not: Doesn't play that much tennis these days, no weapons to hurt Safin or Federer.
MrInvisible verdict: 4th round, then out to someone who can hit it harder

DAVYDENKO
Why: 3rd best player last year - improved a lot from 2004 to 2006. Reached semis last year.
Why not: Not sure he can really take on the big boys.
MrInvisible verdict: quarter-finals, steady as you go.

DJOKOVIC
Why: V tough competitor, v consistent, and looks in good form.
Why not: Lack of big match experience, not had a v big win yet.
MrInvisible verdict: quarter-final.

MURRAY
Why: Beat Federer last year, has a tricky game, more mature than before, good match player.
Why not: Won't like the heat, can suffer dips in form from 1 match to another.
MrInvisible verdict: 4th round.

GASQUET
Why: Extremely talented, can get a winner from anywhere, good form towards latter half of 2006.
Why not: Lack of wins over big name players. Poor record against Federer and Nadal.
MrInvisible verdict: semi-final.

Feel free to add your thoughts, or argue against mine!

I pretty much agree Mr I. Watching Murray 2day and though if he gets 16 ranked then he can get to 4th round and gain big points.

Agree with all you say although not sure on Gasquet.

Other dark horses...

BLAKE
Why: Played some brilliant tennis last year, much more consistent than previously
Why not: Poor record in 5 set matches. Surface may be bit too slow for his liking.

LJUBICIC
Why: Much better in slams than previously. Semi-final run at French Open shows he can handle a higher bounce. One of best servers out there.
Why not: Can be a bit predictable, not his preferred slam.

Oh, and I reckon Blake will reach the quarters and Ljubicic will reach 4th round...

Murray will pretty much have heat stroke.We all know what his fitness is like!

Cheers. I was reading the opening post and thinking, "What about Blake?" I hope he does well. I want to see him win at least one fifth-setter to get that monkey off his back. (Of course, winning the whole thing would be nice.)

it's federer's to win. where he's at and how well he's playing suggest that either everyone is a darkhorse or there's no dark horse at all.

the more logical question could be if there's a surprise baghdatis-type run to the final by someone we don't expect.

Here's a question: who could stop Federer on the way to the final?

Who can give him trouble in a five-setter?

Roddick: He played awesome at the USO, but there was never much doubt who would prevail. I can see him winning a three-setter against Fed (as he almost did in Shanghai), but not a five-setter.

Safin: When he's on fire, he can give anyone trouble, including Federer. He will be seeded pretty low, so he might meet him early on, when Fed isn't completely hot yet. But still, based on his recent (particularly mental) form, I can't really see it happening.

Nalbandian: Can't see it happening, honestly.

Verdict: Unless Fed's form drops considerably from the end of last year, I'd be *extremely* surprised if he doesn't make the final. The only ones I would give a whiff of a chance of beating him there would be Nadal and Safin, but still he's got to be the clear favorite.

I know anyone can have an off-day, but Fed has them so rarely, and even then he can usually pull it out in a five-setter. Of course I hope I'm not jinxing him :shrug:

Murray perhaps? Gasquet? I suppose they're already so highly ranked that it wouldn't be a complete surprise.

Still, I don't think Andy has the stamina yet for such a run in a slam. There are a lot of people Gasquet could lose to, as well.

I'd actually like to see Davydenko reach the final --- although he's ranked number three, people underrate him regularly. Other people I'd like to see in the final are Roddick, Blake or Nadal.

I personally think it may be Rafa. He's got a lot to prove after the second half of last year, and he'll be rested and rearing to go. It may depend on how the surface plays, but I think he may surprise those who have already written him off everywhere except on clay.

Rafa can and will get better, but right now he's peaked.

Nadal's peaked on clay, maybe, but he's adapting his game for faster surfaces and a more consistent year. He has the fitness to grind at Federer for 5 sets.
A good lead-up from Gasquet and he could get the confidence he needs to give Federer a run. Not sure about his best-of-five pedigree though. Anyone?

The problem with Nadal and his adaptions to his game on faster surfaces is that he always has the fear at the back of his mind that he is going to lose his claycourt game and thats why we see him reverting to his defensive game all the time on faster courts.Adaption seems to have an adverse effect on him as was witness to his peformances after Wimbledon.

The Rebound Ace Court is a fair surface and should be equally fair to Nadal.I await to see what type of performance he presents us with!

the thing is rafa is young enough that his game is still evolving. i presume he's been or is currently working on that adaptation. he can only get better. we know he has the drive and desire.

He said in a pre-Chennai interview with a paper in India that he has been working on all the areas giving him problems during the hc season. Like standing too far back on the baseline, and his serve, etc. So I'm really hoping that his game on hc will improve substantially.

I think 4th round or better would be a great effort for murray considering he lost in the 1st round last year.

interesting vivahate (not his best work, that was with the Smiths, but i love the idea of him doing Eurovision).
Why must Nadal get better? is it some unwritten law of nature that a great player must inexorably accrue skills, like a snowball gathers snow if pushed from a the top of a snowy hill?
He ran out of steam or something last year after Wimbledon, nothing to do with unlearning skills or acquiring them, but to do with his mind, and the strange place in which it languished.
A hell of a lot rests on young, slightly over muscular shoulders, i have my doubts that Nadal will become the tennis superman predicted, not because of an inability to learn skills but rather because the past decrees it, a past that has seen many a clay court wonder boy, fail to transform into a man of consistency.

I really do feel Murray has a big chance to go deep into the draw now. I think he's maturing and improving all the time. His coach is a great asset. My concern though is the heat and how that will affect him physically, especailly if he gets to play long matches in the hottest part of the day. I'm sure it will affect other players too, after all those temperatures are very high indeed. But fitness aside, it's certainyl a disadvantage for any player who hails from a much cooler climate like Murray. My other concerns are that his draw isn't as straightforward as some seem to think either, but it is a fair one. Also, I feel he'll need to be on the ball and sharp very early on in this GS and I hope he is or he coudl face an early exit with that opposition. I am rooting for Andy though, I really hope he can at least get to where he shoudl go, i.e. round 4.

I do think this is Fed's to lose really and I'm fully expecting him to raise his game when it counts and win this. I am very interested though to see how Baghi and Djokovic do as they are two huge talents who can turn it on on the big stages and I love watching them both. Baghi's had a bit of an inconsistent time but he does seem to play the big matches like he's top 5 so let's hope he can have a repeat of last year becasue the game needs charcters like him. I's also like to see Gasquet prove himself because so far he has not capitalised on his amazing talent and it;s abotu time he did.

The Argentinian chap - Del Potro. I think he could be a dark horse.

Murray for sure. It'd be great to see him square off against Federer in the final knowing he's beaten him a few months ago.

Nadal - he played well yesterday. When he did come to the net he was excellent - he should do more of that. His serve has improved too.

Blake - I think this cpuld well be his year...to reach a GS final. He won't beat FedEx though.