Who do you think will win?

I hope Martina finally wins RG. However, it will behard playing against the Parisian crowd

I'm not sure the Parisian crowd will affect Martina too much...actually, I think they'll give her a warm reception upon her return.

I'll post my full views on the tournaments favourites soon (too tired to think properly at the moment!).

Well the big warm up events have finished so we’re in a better position to know who are the more likely winners of RG.

Favourite

Has to remain Justine Henin-Hardenne despite a disappointing clay season compared to those she had in 2003 & 05 when she went on to win the title. Though she didn’t win a clay title she did have more top 10 wins on clay than any other player (4 including Fed Cup) beating many of her serious rivals (Petrova, Kuznetsova, Mauremso & Dementieva) and in flashes showed better form than she did in her clay streak last year. However the main worry is that she lost matches to Schnyder & Petrova from a winning position – matches that we would normally expect her to battle through and win. At the end of the day though she remains the favourite as she is the best player in the world on clay & if it comes to the crunch in the final against Petrova, Kuznetsova, Mauresmo, Clijsters etc you know she will come out firing.

Next Favourites (in no particular order)

Petrova

Despite never having previously got past the semis in a slam a fifteen match win streak on clay can’t be ignored. She’s clearly a much stronger player than she used to be & has now won more titles than anyone else this year. However question marks remain as to whether she can transfer that success to the slams. Her significant wins in slams are few and far between – even last year when she made the semi’s of RG she didn’t have to beat a top 10 player Likewise in her recent clay streak she only had to beat 2 top 10 players. Too solid to be ignored but I still feel that if she runs into Henin or Clijsters on form in a slam they will come out on top.

Kuznetsova

She’s been a consistent performer on clay this year though it’s worth noting that she is the only top player who competed in all the major clay events & also didn’t win any of them. She clearly plays well on clay & if she can recapture her Miami form must be considered a contender but if she runs into Henin-Hardenne (who’s already beaten her 3 times this year) I don’t fancy her chances.

Clijsters

At the end of 2005 Clijsters looked like she would be sitting on top of the rankings for quite a while but injuries & horribly inconsistent play has blighted her all year. When she won Warsaw she looked like she’d be a major contender at RG but that loss in Rome to Safina showed up all her game’s problems. On form she is a serious threat but if that forehand is off then she’s in trouble.

Hingis
I was unsure about Hingis’s chances but after her win in Rome she can’t be discounted. However that Rome win was achieved with only one win over a real class player (Venus) and she didn’t have to beat anyone in the top 10. At Berlin she lost to Mauresmo who wasn’t playing that well & she had that meltdown against Venus in Warsaw so her form has been up & down. She’s certainly a threat but seeded where she is she’ll probably have to beat 4 top 10 players to win the even & I’m just not sure she can do that.

Mauresmo
Is too good on clay to be ignored but we all know what her record at RG is like & losing a tight high pressure match in Fed Cup to Schiavone & then getting thrashed by Henin in Berlin aren’t results that show she’s ready to step up and win at her home slam. I think she has a good chance to get to the semis for the first time but the pressure of being Number 1 seed will probably be too much for her sadly.

Might have a shot

Venus – has performed quite well since returning from injury but is probably a bit too inconsistent at the moment to win on her lest favourite surface.
Dementieva – Her record on red clay isn’t anything special & she was destroyed in Berlin & Rome but she has pulled of miracles before.
Sharapova – Unlikely at the best of times & especially with no clay practice at all but is too consistent to be ignored.
Pierce – I can see her pulling out but if she’s there then she may shock us all once again.

No chance
Schnyder – Might manage an upset but I can’t see her going all the way
Safina – None of the top players will want to be drawn against her in the 4th round but one hot week does not a slam winner make.
Myskina – More likely to go out 1st round than win the thing!
Schiavone – Like Schnyder she might manage one big win – but more than that I very much doubt.


Phew sorry for the length - thoughts anyone?

Not much to add to GS2's superb post :ok:

Whilst she fought past Justine in the Berlin final, I'm still not entirely convinced Petrova could do that in the latter stages of a Slam against an in-form opponent. She has been excellent on the clay this year, and I definitely expect her to go very deep in the draw.

Pierce and Sharapova are question marks really (assuming both play). They have no match practice on the surface, and could be susceptible to an early round defeat if they have a difficult draw.

I agree LDF, i'm still amazed that Jo Durie on Eurosport last year called Sharapova a potential contender on clay. I was like :wacko:

Petrova would have to dig deep into her deepest reserves to defeat Justine in a French Open final. I'm not saying its beyond her, but against an inspired Justine in front of a partisan crowd? It seems unlikely.

Even if Pierce plays, her overally play has to be rusty, she hasnt played since early febuary and its always hard to start on the tour again on clay. Tough on the body, especially for a 31 year old veteran such as Pierce.

Clijsters will have to sharpern her game tremendously to triumph at RG in my opinion. I can still see her going out to an inspired Venus or a gritty Dementieva.

Jo Durie is prone to some lapses in concentration, though most of the time she's an excellent commentator.

For instance, she said a player (can't remember which) should serve more like Dementieva. I guess there were a few empty vodka bottles rolling around the commentary booth roflmao

Excellent, thoughtful post, GS2!! Would pretty much agree with you've written.

What is apparent though is that if JHH isn't in good shape, somehow gets knocked out early in the tournament, then it really blows the tournament open for many others to have a really good chance to win the title. I'm wondering who people might think is at the head of the chasing pack?

I realise that Mauresmo's recent Fed Cup showing wasn't good, and that the pressure of being the home favourite might count against her. However, she now has a slam under her belt, and must feel that this will be one of the best chances that she will have to win RG. I think that she could pick up one of the other 2 slams this year, if not the French.

Yes, Kuznetsova and Petrova both have a good chance, but I think that the other top players might account for them in the semis or quarters.

Clijsters, well, she is probably the most inconsistent of all of the front runners! Depends if she brings her forehand with her to Paris, I guess.

Agreed about Hingis, although I wouldn't rule her out beating the top 10 players that you have predicted might lie in her way. I think that of the main contenders, Clijsters and JHH are the only players that she hasn't beaten this year.

So the final could be JHH versus, in this order:

Mauresmo
Clijsters (with forehand working)
Kuznetsova
Petrova
Hingis (wasn't sure whether to place her 3rd, but for me there's not much between the last 3)

Personally, I'm hoping that it's one of the first 2, or Hingis! If it turns out to be a Kim and JHH final then I hope that it's a sight better than the 2003 final!!

I think pretty much everyone has to, and does, agree that JHH is front runner for the FO. In all honesty, despite Petrova's recent good form on clay, I don't think she quite has the mental game yet to win a slam. There is a huge amount of pressure in these situations, and until the end of last year as I recall she had yet to win a title. Yes, she is growing in confidence, but enough to take apart potential competition such as JHH, Clijsters, and Mauresmo in a slam in which they are all likely to be crowd favourites?

For the record, I really hope Hingis can win the French also. Although I hope she can win everything... I wonder if the Parisian crowd will take kindly to her... I hope so!

My "baby" of course :wub:

If JHH and Petrova were to meet in the final or the SF, then Justine will make sure she beats her this time. Justine says "no one beats me twice apart from the William Sisters"!

Don't you just love her? :bow: :bow:

:bigwave: :bigwave:

She's very generous to Lindsay then, allowing her to win 5 times :P

I would love to see Hingis cause a huge upset. Its on the cards