Courtesy of Tennis.com

1. ROGER FEDERER

How close he was to a perfect season: 79%

To achieve the highest-possible ranking score of 10, 600 points, you have to win four Grand Slams, all the Masters Series events , the Masters Cup, and five small events. Federer, with 8, 370, was 79% of the way to absolute perfection. To put that in persective: adjusting for measurement changes, Pete Sampras in his most dominant year would have been around 60%.

Federer's shortfalls this year were so minor that most can be measured on the fingers of one hand. He lost before the finals just once. Of the 16 finals he did make, he lost just four – and all to he same player, Rafael Nadal. He won 12 titles, equalling the ATP record, and also came up one just match short of Grand Slam perfection. He lost five matches, but only to two different players.

2007 To Do list: 2006 – rinse, repeat and win one more match. At Roland Garros.


2. RAFAEL NADAL

Relative ranking from Monte Carlo to Wimbledon: 1
Relative post-Wimbledon ranking: 11

Nadal didn’t even start his year until March and his results fell off significantly after Wimbledon, so the meat of his year took place between the relatively narrow period between Dubai and Wimbledon – a little over 4 months. And more than two-thirds of the results that earned Nadal his year-end No. 2 ranking came during the 12 weeks from Monte Carlo to the end of Wimbledon. If we measure results just from that period, he was No. 1.

On the other hand, if he had played the whole year like he’s played since Wimbledon, he would have ended the year just outside the Top 10.

2007 To Do list: Repeat the first half of the year, try to do better in the second. Oh, and start beating Federer again.


3. NIKOLAY DAVYDENKO

Matches lost in 2006: 28

That’s more than any other Top 10 player. Davydenko also had more losses to players ranked outside the top 50 than any other Top 10 player – thirteen in all. But he still managed to end the year ranked No. 3. How? Because he headed the Top 10 in another category: tournaments played.

The Russian entered 32 events this year, and that’s in addition to playing a full Davis Cup schedule. The current ranking system lets a player drop some of his worst results at smaller events if he plays more than the minimum number of tournaments, so Davydenko was able to use his good results to cancel out his early losses. But if this were 1990, when the rankings averaged out a player's results, he would be somewhere around No. 8.

The good news for Davydenko is that he’s shown more versatility this year. In his career, he has ten titles. Five of the first seven were on clay, and a sixth on slow Rebound Ace. But his last three have included one hardcourt and two carpet titles, and he also reached the semifinals of the US Open. If he keeps that up next year, he’ll be able to produce results more consistently– and maybe play a little less frequently as a result.

2007 To Do list: Win more, play less. Try to encourage those Agassi comparisons TV commentators have been making ever since he shaved his, um, hair.


4. JAMES BLAKE

Wins over Top Ten players: 8

That’s the third-highest on tour this year, after Roger Federer (a staggering 19) and Rafael Nadal (who earned four of his ten Top 10 wins over Federer alone).

Three of those Top 10 wins came at the Masters Cup, one at Indian Wells, and four at smaller tournaments – Sydney, Queen’s and Bangkok. That’s Blake’s year in a nutshell. He won five titles, a number exceeded only by Federer – except they were all at smaller events. Blake’s only big results at big events were the finals of Indian Wells and the Masters Cup. Witness: Blake earned less than a fifth of his ranking points at Grand Slams, compared to one-third for most players.

2007 To Do list: Win at least five straight matches at a Grand Slam. Beat Federer just once. Try not to think about which one is harder.


5. IVAN LJUBICIC

Score of the Miami final he lost to Federer: 6-7(5) 6-7(4) 6-7(6)

Nikolay Davydenko sneaked off with the Paris title, so the mantle of having reached No. 3 without winning a big title falls to Ivan Ljubicic. As the scoreline above indicates, he was so close and yet so far.

Ljubicic’s most memorable off-court moment this year may have been the story he told about walking into the accreditation office at Bastad accreditation office – where he was the top seed and a recent Roland Garros semifinalist – only to be asked whether he was a player or a coach. But as he later acknowledged, part of his anonymity stems from the fact that he still hasn’t made a memorable run at a Grand Slam.

2007 To Do list: Try to end up included on the Grand Slam Match of the Year list. Try not to let that match be another loss to Federer. Start the post-match interview with, “Have I got a backstory for you...”


6. ANDY RODDICK

Percentage of points from US Open Series events (inc. US Open): 55%
Percentage of points from all other events combined: 45%

That says it all. Numerically speaking, Roddick’s results during the two months from Indianapolis to the end of the U.S. Open were worth more than his other nine months of play combined. Psychologically speaking – ditto.

The American is no longer the top-ranked player in his home country – James Blake overtook him in the final tournament of the year and also held it at various other times during the season. But armed with new coach Jimmy Connors, Roddick takes more momentum into 2007 than he did into 2006.

2007 To Do list: Keep channeling that Connors aggression on court. Channel less of it off court. And hey, why not – beat Federer.




7. TOMMY ROBREDO

Position based on bonus points: 4th

Tommy Robredo was held up as the poster child for the supposedly weak field of players at Shanghai (Federer and Nadal excepted). But that might be too hasty a judgment, because the 2006 Hamburg champion has piled up some solid wins this year.

Before switching to the current system in 2000, the ATP added bonus points to a player’s ranking total if he defeated highly-ranked players during a tournament. If that formula were still in place for wins over Top 30 players, Robredo would have the fourth-highest total. Since he ended the year ranked three spots lower than that, his quality was arguably higher than his quantity.

2007 To Do list: Win a Masters Series event when Federer and Nadal haven’t both pulled out of the event.


8. DAVID NALBANDIAN

Slams where he hasn’t reached a semifinal: 0

That stat reflects Nalbandian’s all-surface skills, an so do his results this year: A semifinal at the Masters Cup indoors; a win at Estoril and semifinals at Rome and Roland Garros on clay; a third round at Wimbledon (where he's a former finalist); semifinals at the Australian Open and Miami on hardcourt; a semifinal on indoor hardcourt at Madrid.

But though the Argentine completed the career semifinal mark at the Grand Slams, it was also a year of lost opportunities there – he had Marcos Baghdatis almost down and out in the semifinals of the Australian Open before losing, had to retire against Federer in the semifinals of Roland Garros, lost the first two sets to Fernando Verdasco at Wimbledon 13-11 in both tiebreaks, and succumbed 8-6 in the tiebreak of a five-set thriller against Marat Safin at the U.S. Open.

2007 To Do list: Get called an overachiever.


OTHERS TO WATCH

13. TOMAS BERDYCH

Wins in a row against Nadal: 3
Losses in a row against Federer: 4

Berdych is holding his own just fine against the current best player of his generation, but has struggled against the best of them all since his tremendous upset of Federer at the 2004 Olympics. He was also one of the highest-ranked players not to win a title this year. But the prognosis is still good for the Czech – from mid-July till the end of the seson, his win-loss record was 20-8. Not spectacular, but a lot better than the 12-12 mark he set in his first dozen tournaments of the year.

2007 To Do list: Stop being a giant killer. Become a giant.




17. ANDY MURRAY

Position based on bonus points: 5th

For a player ranked No. 17 and still in his teens, this is a remarkable stat. When the ATP rankings added bonus points to a player’s total for defeating highly-ranked players, separating a player’s bonus points from his regular tournament points was a simple way of measuring the quality of his wins. If that formula was still in place today for wins over Top 30 players, Murray would come out fifth on the list – behind only Federer, Nadal, Blake and Robredo.

It's testament to his ability to beat big players. The Scot was 4-4 against Top 10 players this year, suggesting he’s headed into such rarefied company himself. And of course, he pulled off the upset of the year when he defeated a jaded Federer in the second round of Cincinnati. The only fly in the ointment? He had more than twice as many losses against players ranked below 50.

2007 To Do list: Become Top 10 so there’s one less Top 10 player to play against. After all, bonus points no longer exist.


20. LLEYTON HEWITT

ATP events played: 15

Hewitt can still put up results when he shows up. The Australian ended the year just inside the Top 20 despite playing only 15 events, thanks to quarterfinal appearances at the US Open and Wimbledon, a tournament win at Queen’s and finals appearances at San Jose and Las Vegas.

But his ability to still beat the very best is coming under question – the former No. 1 only win over a Top 10 player this year came when Rafael Nadal retired against him at Queen’s.

2007 To Do list: More tournaments. Fewer lawsuits.




26. MARAT SAFIN

No. of tournaments where he lost in the first/second round: 15
No. of tournaments where he got to the fourth round/quarterfinals or better: 8

When Safin’s got it, he’s still got it.

This year he didn’t have it a lot more than he did have it, but still achieved his goal of being ranked high enough to get a seed at the Australian Open next season. Whether that leads to winning the whole thing or losing in the first round is, as ever, anyone's guess.

2007 To Do list: Make being seeded a foregone conclusion.

Thoughts anyone?

Hi Brakkus...thanks a lot as usual for this great post: I will comment tomorrow ( I hope in the morning...) In any case This post was simply to sayThank you..
:rolleyes:

BTW : I have already a couple of remarks but I want to have a little bit more time...I am at work currently so.. :wacko:

Hello Brakkus,

Your post was a real pleasure to read!! Some really fascinating stats there.. :)

I was intrigued to read about Davydenko, Ljubicic, Blake and Robredo. The analysis clearly lays out the reasons why they are ranked so highly. The ironic thing is that they are ranked where they are by putting in the hard yards, playing lots of tennis, putting themselves at least in a position to pitch themselves against the likes of Federer and Nadal.. even if more often than not they come off second best (certainly in the case of Federer, and more often than not against Rafa.. although obviously Blake Rafa is a major exception).

The Hewitt statistics are a concern for him though. Once upon a time, he had A-Rod's number, but even that was not the case, when they met at the USO where for once Roddick put Hewitt out of a slam.. usually it's the other way round!! :lol:

I think that the stats for Marat are the most transaparent of the lot! Just one look at his results for the year, and it's not difficult to see the 'boom or bust' state of play with him.. Hopefully it will be more of the former in 2007.

The stats are particularly insightful for the young upstarts of Birdy and Murray. I am presuming that you have posted edited highlights of a full list of players. I am curious about what Tennis.com annual review has to say about the following:

Richard Gasquet
Novak Djokovic
Stan Wawrinka
Baggy

I'm just wondering if some of the stats might about them might also be a useful pointer to the extent that they might challenge in 2007. There is also Gael Monfils, but I think that his stats will be as transparent as those for Marat..

one final thing.. your post has gone and put me right in the mood for the next season.. already!! :lol: Well.. it will just make it all the more enjoyable when it finally arrives :)

That Robredo section is so revealing, he'll have to really work to maintain his top 10 position next year, especially if fed or nadal plays in hamburg as well, or anyone ranked above him for that matter.

I hope blake and Safin keep moving on up next year as well :D

:whistle:

Moving on up
Moving on up
Time to break free
nothing can stop me

:whistle:

:D

Hi Guys,this is the whole article that was available.I thought it was interesting that players like Davydenko were so high based on less than stellar results.The trouble is most of the top10 will meet Federer on the way and he usually wins the tier 1 events.
Disregarding their results, everyone below Rog&Rafa,someone has to be ranked from 3-10.Apart from 3 of the masters events,all the TMC's and the slams went to the big two.

Roddick-cincinatti,Robredo-hamburg,Davydenko-paris.
Doesn't leave much else to win for the rest. :shrug:

It's true Brakkus.. slim pickings for the rest..

But it goes to show just how difficult it is for any player when one player is so dominant.. I mean, even Lendl gets castigated for the number of slam finals that he lost.. and yet getting to the final was surely an achievement in itself? :shrug:

And it only takes one player to stop other players from evenly spreaing tournaments between them.. I'd think that the 2001-2003 period between Sampras/ Agassi and Federer/ Nadal is a good indication of that :ok:

What Lendl achieved really was special,19 slam finals.If he had started winning them earlier then the greatest wouldn't have been issue,it would be Lendl.
His numbers are terrific,and Federer's domination for me has really highlighted just how good Lendl was between 85-90.
It's taken something special by Roger to topple some of the records held by Lendl.

Got to be fairly short as I'm going out soon, here what some things for players to aim for in 2007:

Federer - Improve backhand and volleys. Retain the aura that stops players playing well against him. Show some bottle against Nadal on clay. Burn that jacket.

Nadal - Continue his amazing development on grass. Try and improve on hard courts, figure out a way to defeat power players on this surface. Retain winning streak on clay.

Davydenko - Do something to prove this isn't a weak era. Play more aggressively- he has some decent shots. Get people saying 'Davydenko's got a chance at this Slam'.

Blake - Sort his woeful mental problems out. Play against Federer as he does against Nadal. Try and finish the season ranked 3.

Ljubicic - Whatever the hell it is he's doing, keep it up. Prepare for a huge slide down the rankings regardless.

Roddick - Get a backhand, play more serve volley. Forget about Federer, he's not the be all and end all. Improve his grass court performance.

Robredo - Work hard. Be more aggressive. Prepare for a likely fall down the rankings.

Nalbandian - Lay off the donuts, sort his head out. Win a Slam - Australian possibly.

Others:

Gasquet - Sort attitude out, believe in himself. Make a Slam breakthrough.

Berdych - Get more consistent. Play properly against Federer. Slam breakthrough.

Murray - Improve stamina. Follow up one big win with another. Ignore media.

Safin - Unlikely, but sort head out. Show consistency at Slams at least.

Good analysis Wise! :)

I don't think Blake would agree that Federer should improve his backhand...

I agree with the Roddick statement about the backhand. What a woeful shot that is, he makes zero room for the shot and there's no shoulder turn to allow the racquet head to zoom through. The worst shot in the top 20 by far :rolleyes:

That was a good post, Wise.

I personally would say that Fed's backhand has already improved massively during the second half of the year, so it might be more of a matter of keeping it at such a high level. Of course we haven't seen how it holds up on clay yet, particularly against Nadal, so you may turn out to be right.

His volleys seem fine to me, though, given that he doesn't have to rely on them immensely in the current era of courts and equipment. So I suspect it's not something that he will focus on explicitly; however, with the trend that hard courts are getting faster, he may automatically end up volleying more and hence improving further in this department.

Keeping his "aura" seems to me to be essentially the same thing as "keep on winning". :P It's a lot to ask for from players like Roddick and Blake to not feel as though they have a momentous mountain to climb, given their head-to-head against him. They really took it to him in the US Open, I think, but they still couldn't get past him --- I'd like to see the player who doesn't get a bit of a psychological strain from a 12-1 h2h!!!

And I, for one, did like that jacket. ;)

If I had to pick something for Federer to work on it would be trying to cut out the little lapses of concentration he can have for a game or two during matches, particularly when he's ahead. But then again, it may be that that's simply part of the way he plays the game, and something that's hard to get rid off.

I largely agree with your points about the other players, in particular about Robredo facing a fall down the rankings --- he's a decent player, and probably will remain in the top 20, but his current ranking is somewhat inflated. Where would he be without Hamburg?

I'm not sure about Ljubicic --- when he's on, he's got a big game, definitely top ten material I would say. But he's been pretty inconsistent, particularly in slams. I can see him remaining in the top 10, but I can also see him dropping out of the top 20. :yikes:

If Roddick, Blake and Davydenko manage to keep up their recent good form, they should remain in the top 10 next year. Together with Federer and Nadal, who are likely to keep their current position imo, this leaves five other places which are less foreseeable. So here's a question: Who else will be in the top ten at the end of 2007?

Will Nalbandian cling in there, or does he love his doughnuts too much? What about Gonzalez?

Can Lleyton make it back? Can Safin surprise us all? Have Tommy Haas's best days gone past?

Who among Murray, Berdych, Gasquet, Monfils, ... will break into the top ten?

I'd like to hear all your opinions!

Nadal will break :pray:

great analysis :ok:

I agree with the majority said in that post

Some remarks on my side concerning this interesting discussion:

First...Why Berdy is spotted out in the initial article and not Gasquet or Bagda and finally Murray? I really disagree. IMO in 2006 these two young mans with Djoko BTW were more impressive than Berdy and they are likely to be more dangerous to the usual two suspects than Berdy himself (well Berdy is a danger for Nadal out of clay in any case...And this from the junior).

Said that:

1) FED main objective for 2007: Simply keep the impressive speed and improve these two additional minutes in Rome: I mean these were the famous minutes on his first match point, FED missed a forehand AHHHHHHHHHH..Anyway it happens to any great player to miss some points: I was really happy with the rest of his season: he was able to fight back after a clay season very hard, i.e. reaching all the finals and not being able to capture a title well I guess it was really frustrating :rolleyes:

2) Nadal: 2007 needs to be the year in which he is able to beat some strong-heavy power players outside of clay...I want to see him beat either Blake or Berdy (or equivalent, e.g. AROD) on one of these surface...will be able to do that? This is the open question. :wacko:

3) All others: Davy: Please do less and do better..concentrate yourself please on the majors...Lubo same than Davy.

Nalbi please focus in Tennis and stop playing with cars :D ..

AROD: the world of Tennis is not only FED: My worry here it is really that he is concentrating too much against this player and he is not thinking any others...

Be careful man :yikes: the young guns are there for FED but they want your scalp as well.

Blake:Man you are such a nice person but now stop it to be nice and fight as you are able to do against...Your Tennis is good believe on it PLEASE B)

Finally young guns: Please Gasquet (my favourite) does not read any single line in the French's media: they will charge you, they want something and quick..take your time and who cares... :whistle:

In any case I simply expect a great 2007...

PS: FED I wants to see you with a new Jacket in central Court...And this simply because Wise will be upset even more roflmao