Of course, there's no guarantee that Federer will continue to dominate the tour in '07, but his form shows no sign of dropping so far. So, excluding Federer, who do you think will shine in '07? Will Nadal have another strong first half next year and hold on to his ranking? Will there be an American resurgence, with Roddick and Blake battling it out for a top ranking? Perhaps a continuation of Davydenko's impressive late-season form? Or will one of the younger players (Murray, Gasquet, Djokovic, Berdych or others) assert himself?

As a fan in the US, I'm hoping to see the more confident James Blake and the Connors-guided Roddick carry forward some of their form and confidence into next year and be fighting for spots in the Top 3.

Your thoughts?

A battle for number 2, sorry at the moment I don't see it unless Nadal has big injury problems.

Currently Nadal has a 1600 point lead on Davydenko and that's despite missing the AO last year so he could actually increase that lead.

In some ways Federer actually helps Nadal keep that lead as by dominating the non clay portion of the tour he to some extent prevents any other single player from gaining big points.

Of course there's a good chance Nadal won't be as dominant on clay next year but then we probably thought that at this time last year as well!

I wouldn't be suprised if Roddick worked his way back to 3 though.

I think Nadal will drop off points in the clay and grass seasons possibly, some if not A LOT. So that should even out what he gains at the AO.

It will all hinge on if he has an impressive 2nd half of the season or not. If not, then Roddick going into 2007 all guns blazing towards the end of the year could overtake him as number two. I don't seen any other real candidates.

I understand that Nadal will be No. 2 for some time, based on his significant lead over No. 3. That lead is based on his '06 performance, though. I was thinking more along the lines of who would be the best of '07. By this time next year, none of the current point leads (even Federer's) will mean anything.

Having said that, though, I do think Nadal has a good shot at staying up there for the forseeable future. I don't think he'll go undefeated on clay again, but barring injury, you've got to expect him to rack up a lot of points again in the clay season.

if nadal falters at no. 2 i see two scenarios...blake's form continues and so his rise in the rankings. or someone like davydenko could eak out no. 2 playing every goddamn tournament on the atp schedule. he clocked 32 tournies this 06 season. wow.

Still, you have to perform well at the Masters Series and Grand Slams to really get a lot of ranking points. Just playing a lot of touranments can only get you so far.

I agree. He gets criticised a lot for being points-greedy, playing all those events, but he played 18 optional events, and only gets to count the points from the best five. Just for fun, I looked at his results and said, what if you assume he only played half as many optionals and had similar results. In his optionals, he had 4 Wins, 2 Finals, 2 SF & 2 QF. So, what he got to count was 4 wins and a final. If you cut all those numbers in half, he'd be counting 2 wins and one each of F/SF/QF. I semi-randomly picked which ones to count (not picking the all the highest rated events, but leaving in Moscow, for example, since most all the top russian players entered there) and determined that his ranking points would be 260 pts lower. So, he'd still be ranked third, but only slightly above Blake.

Of course, there are a lot of assumptions there, but it illustrates that he's not necessarily gaining a huge advantage by playing that many events.

What's going to happen to the ranking points with the RR tournaments does anyone know? will it depend on matches won, or round the player gets to or what? i think it's all a bit confusing (but i'm easily confused so.....)

well if Nadal drops out, which I dont see happening really... I'd like to see the young guns having a good old battle for it - but the person I would really like to see is Blake - not in number two, just see him and drool.... ;)

Actually, I would like to see him get the number two spot - but not before hes learnt not to roll over to Fed each and everytime...

The number 2 will probabaly still be Nadal, but I dont; think he will dominate as much as he has on clay next year. I see some burn out and injuries on the way as is inevitable with that style of play. GS makes a great point that Fed's dominance on hard/grass prevents other contenders who arent; so great on clay from rising up the rankings. So based on that i dont; see Blake or roddick taking the number 2 spot. I doubt they can make the number two spot very much, but I am expecting the like sof young guns Djokovic, Murray and maybe berdych to break into the top ten. At least i hope so as it needs some new blood in it. Nalby won't make number 2 as he has lost the plot, and Davydenko is a hard worker but I dont; think he can go all the way. I'm hoping Hewitt can find his form and rise again as I feel the top level misses hsi fighting spirit. Of course the person i'd most liek to see as World Number 2 is Tim Henman, now wouldn't that be nice Pebs? :D

oooo....

I darent even dream it SB!

People will call me bias, but first of all I dont see Nadal dropping from number 2 any time soon, but right now the most likely guy to replace him there IMO is none other than A ROD. :)

Since Wimbledon when Andy R was at an all time low after his loss to Murray, he has got Connors in his corner and the results and transformation speaks for itself, although he has taken 2 loses to Federer in this space of time he is certainly alot closer to him than any time before and indeed their match last week in Shanghai where Andy had 3 match points Federer himself admitted he was lucky to win that one.

Andys form was poor at the start of this year until after Wimbledon given this he hasnt got too many points to defend, so a good run at the Aussie Open then Indian Wells and Miami and he could well be in the thick of things.

i bet you do though, don't you Pebs......

or him winning wimbledon and then turning to the crowd and saying "I'd like to thank my biggest fan....Pebs!!!" roflmao

You know what, I think that Fed is getting very good at applying pressure on all of the current top 10..

There is the pressure of the ever-deteriorating head to head that he has applied to Blake, Davydenko, and now Nalbandian. Quite dispiriting for them.

He has also been applying pressure to Nadal as well.. I think that Rafa has felt that the only way that he can get near Roger in the rankings is to develop an all-court game, and quickly! There is not much further that he can go on clay, after all (apart from the Rome-Hamburg double, perhaps?) so he has maybe been trying to evolve quicker than perhaps his game allows.. and perhaps that has contributed to his poorer form later in 2006.

however, I don't foresee him being toppled as number two very soon. I agree with Ark that A-Rod could well be the main challenger in the short term, as I think that he has the bit between his teeth now, and could be a strong starter in 2007. He had an excellent run at the AO in 2003 and who is to say that he won't have a good run in January?

As for the young guns? At the moment it is difficult to see them challenging right near the higher echelons.. However, I do see 2-3 of them breaking into the top 12 (if not top 10) by about the middle of next year. I'm thinking of Djokovic, possibly Gasquet (if he can gain more consistency). I'm also interested to see how Baggy's game comes along this year too.. Would be great to get some fresh blood into the top 10 this year, as SB said..

And of course having Tim in there would be a good thing! :ok:

:blink: :blink:

thats scary DJ - how did you know????

;)

I have that kind of thing about marat Safin....


....actually, that's a total lie, my dreams about Safin don't tend to involve tennis :P

Baghdatis still is one of the few players I actually see able to beat Fed on his own terms. He has a very powerful first serve, good groundstrokes, is really quick around the court and, last but not least, has enough feel for the ball to counter Fed's variation

roflmao

neither do mine...

Good post. I forgot about Baghi, he has th eptential to be top 5 IMO if he can find and keep the consitency. he is defintitely a big stage player so doesnt; choke when it counts, and he has quite a game so I do hope he becomes top 5. he'd be quite a refreshign change and a popular player I think. :D

Nadal has so much to defend from the clay season it's untrue...

I do feel next year may well be the year that he slides down, a lot of players now seem to have a belief they can win if they are positive enough

I personally can't see Nadal failing BUT, his number two position can be weakened. I expect to see Federer improve on clay, causing the spanniard's foothold to wobble. Presuming however, that he will keep the upper hand on this surface, that gives him a huge advantage over followers. On grass and hard, Federer is basically preventing anyone else from winning too many things. Clay court tournaments are what is left over and mostly go to Nadal. If Nadal can keep his "monopoly" of slow, high rebound surfaces, the only thing that could topple him is if Federer stops winning and major fast surface titles go to Nadals followers, allowing them to rack up some points.
If Nadal does lose his advantage over Federer on clay, the race for number two could become a very close call (as in this scenario, Roger would quite literally win everything) But like I said, I just don't see it happening.

Roddick will probabaly be the one to knock Nadal off the number 2 slot.
2005 was better for Nadal than 2006 imo.

I don't think Nadal will lose his #2 ranking anytime soon (and the same goes for Fed's #1 ranking).

I don't expect him to dominate Fed again in the first half of 2007 as he did at the beginning of 2006. But, while I haven't checked, I imagine he would still be #2 if he'd lost some if not all of his 2006 matches against Roger.

Is there anyone who is likely to consistently challenge Rafa on clay next year, other than Roger? I know he had some tough matches last year, but I still don't see it happening. And as long as he stays #2, he won't meet Roger until the final, so would still get tons of ranking points. Together with a decent performance in the AO, I reckon he will still be second at the beginning of the grass season.

Unless he suffers serious injury (not inconceivable) or his results in the second half of the season get worse than this year :yikes: I don't really see anyone else being #2 at the end of 2007.

I think the fight is between Nadal and Roddick (I would include Safin if he screws his head on).

Nadal obviously has huge points to defend on clay of which he may drop a few but not many IMO (he will drop grass points I think), and is established no. 2 anyway. Roddick has mega points to gain at the AO, Wimb and FO (although he should aim for say 4r/QF at FO). Safin has points to gain everywhere if he screws his head on.

I can't see ANYONE capable of contesting the no.1 spot. I see people capable of beating Federer - Nadal and Safin (no-one else unless he is exhausted i.e. Murray) but they cannot keep his consistency through the whole year and then hope to beat him on numerous occasions in finals.

I reckon its hard enough beating him once, nevermind multiple times as well as keeping up an amazingly consistent year winning virtually every tournament and reaching finals in the rest.

The only chance is when he is if his form drops (there are no signs yet) or when he is older and not able to keep wins up consistently over a year.