And who to? I'll say Nadal, 2008.

Good question sdf. I reckon about the same as you - maybe late 2008 early 2009. But i don't reckon it'll be to nadal - that's just too obvious. I think it will be to one of the younger players now - baghdatis, berdych, Murray (maybe that's just an odd british hope.....), Ancic - someone like that.

What do you mean Nadal's too obvious?

it's just that nadal is who we all expect to do it - and life never turns out how we expect it..... :)

Yeah but nadal appears the only one close enough in points to overtake Federer.

At the moment, yes, but bearing in mind Nadal's form at the moment, and the number of points he has to defend next year in the clay season, i could see him slipping to be honest and someone unexpected coming up through the rankings. you only have to look at, say, Baghdatis's rise this year, to see it's entirely possible thst one of the younger players - gasquet, murray, baggy, berdych - culd have a great year next year and get closer to Fed.

I could be entirely wrong of course, it's just a gut feeling i have :)

SDF - this is a really interesting discussion which i wish to continue at some point, but i've just realised i'm running late and have to go and catch a train.

Bye!!!

Good post. Some predicted Nadal would be near by now earlier in the year but that is out of the question.

It seems to me that Nadal has so many points to defend on clay that he can't overtake Federer for a while. The earliest time in my opinion is if Federer drops lots of points in the Australian, clay court season. He will retain all his grass points I'm afraid.

Maybe then by the hardcourt season 2007 a few losses early could then take him down...

Even then this is optimistic to the point of foolishness. He is in super form and doesn't look to be losing to anyone at the moment even Nadal (due to his bad form). It is in fact more likely that Federer will have a similar if not better year in 2007.

Grr something went wrong with the internet while I was typing this post so I've had to start again.

Ok, I don't pretend to be an expert on the ranking points system; but surely Fed's lead in point is unprecedented in history.

Failing a massive injury that puts him out for 6 months, the worst loss of form in tennis history or a bolt from the blue who just wins everything next year, then I fail to see how Fed hasn't as good banked his YE#1 spot for 2007.... :shrug:

I see the real race being for number two personally, as A Rod has a lot of points he can pick up at the beginning of next year, and if Nalby gets fit and finds form they he also can pick up quite a lot of points in the latter half of 2007 so could also challenge.

Sure Fed has a lot of points to defend but he doesn't need to defend all of them to remain number one, and Nadal has a lot of points also which he will have to defend...

True Serena. If he carries on normal form i think ye #1 is pretty much guaranteed next year. No-one is coming close and he is only gaining in points however incredulous that is.

At the moment nothing short of injury will dethrone him. Things can change obviously but at the moment I would back him no.1 till atleast ye 2007

I don't see Roger losing his #1 ranking next year, barring major injury.

2008 is a bit far away to say anything with great certainty, but I have a feeling Roger will cling on to the #1 spot, or at least the year end #1 ranking. It's a lot to ask for for him to not drop below #1 for another two years, but I still have a feeling we'll have to wait until 2009 to see another world #1 player. Who will it be? Hard to say. If Nadal fulfills the promise he showed in his run to the Wimbledon final and keeps adapting and improving his game, I can see him starting a serious attack on Fed's ranking in 2008, and perhaps overtake him in 2009. Otherwise, perhaps one of the other young players can step up to it. Might even be someone entirely new, who knows? I'd like to see Baghdatis gain some consistency, move up the rankings even further, start winning slams at some point. Gasquet and Murray have also been mentioned and could have a chance, in my opinion, as well as some others (Berdych perhaps), but it really is too early to tell. We'll just have to wait and see.

Hmm.. Fed has the following in his favour (in no particular order):

1. An economical game
2. He is in great physical shape, and has a brilliant fitness and conditioning instructor (one of the best in the business)
3. Mirka who looks after everything for him so well
4. The work ethic and hunger to win
5. Focus, borne out of his love of the game (apparent from his Tokyo blog). Is unlikely to be distracted by business interests, etc.
6. Oh, and the sheer talent! He seems to be getting better and better, which is just frightening.


So basically he is perfectly placed for longevity. I would foresee him remaining number one for at least 2 more years, all things being equal. He will want to break both the consecutive weeks at number 1 (in the bag anyway) and the overall weeks at number 1. He is very proud to be world number one and won't give it up without a fight

Those most likely to become the new number one? Jo is right, perhaps not Rafa, and he has some work to do on his game if he is going to not burn out either emotionally or physically. Federer has been quoted (not sure how accurately) as saying that he views Gasquet as a threat in the future. I would add Djokovic into the mix. He has the ambition and game to work his way right to the top.

Bump....

Any ideas guys? Now that Federer has tore through the 8000 point barrier.... Can you guys see the horizon of his domination? Where is it?


:bow:

Musing...

when he retires :bow:

long live federer's reign...

Well, as Nadal has now pulled out of Paris, it looks all but certain that Federer will break the streak for weeks at #1 - even without winning another match he's virtually safe till after the Australian Open.

If my calculations are right...

Federer will have 6370 safe points between now and then, while Nadal has 4270. If Nadal were to win the YEC (750), an Aussie Open warm up (no more than 250 I think), and the Aussie Open itself (1000), the most he could realistically get to would be 6270 points - which would still be 100 points behind Federer (in the unlikely event that Federer doesn't win another match). Of course, every single match Federer wins increases that comfort margin.

I believe Federer has to stay at #1 till 26th February 2007 to break the record. Hard to see him not achieving that now.

It looks like all of 2007 is taken up in my view.

Edit: just read of rogerfederer.com that Federer has now broken the consecutive weeks at no.1 record for good. As Nadal has drawn out of Paris he can gain no points there so even if Federer doesn't hit another ball till after the Australian Open and Nadal wins everything he will still be leading.

Still Federer is still down for Paris next week from what I know meaning the lead could be stretched after the Nadal withdrawal. If Nadal doesn't make it to YEC's with this injury as well Federer could gain points from a win...
I hope Nadal gets better soon and this doesn't last through to next season.